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Hiya, Gearoid. My 13/2 with Alan is money in the bank.:cool: And it’s for more than a score :biggrin:
I put up a request at Betfair for 5/1 a while ago and it went unmatched for ages. Then I saw Coral were going 5/1 and when I contacted them it was down to 4/1. I cancelled the 5/1 request at Betfair when the horse looked like missing its original intended debut as I thought there might be a problem with it and if it got beat I’d get more than 5/1.
Still, Morgan is a man of honour and 13/2 is good for giving a good night’s sleep.
About Spirit Leader…
The County Hurdle is one of the very hottest handicaps of the season and only very well-handicapped horses can win. In hindsight, Rooster Booster’s win there in 2002 was probably the start of his improvement rather than his win at Kempton from Mr Cool.
Last year the form lines are confusing but given the importance of the race in the calendar, I tend to go with one of the more generous interpretations. It’s an approach which has proved profitable for me over the years.
In 2003 the favourite pulled up after becoming tailed off; the 2nd fav finished 6th, beaten about 6 lengths; the third fav Finished 10th and the winner was multiple co-4th favourite. The runner up was a 25/1 shot but, more worryingly, the third was a 66/1 chance. However, the latter had been only 14/1 in a Grade 2 race on his seasonal debut in receipt of a stone from Limestone Lad, so perhaps he was overpriced at the festival.
I rated the race via Jaboune, which had run to 137 (winner Back In Front – 158) in the Supreme Novices on the Tuesday. If the line was accurate it would give me a good link between the novices and the handicappers. The race time appeared to tie in nicely with the Triumph, both races being traditionally very strongly-run.
I have given Spirit Leader 155 for the County. This represented a stone improvement on her Tote Gold Trophy form (I’ve possibly undervalued that race) and 17lbs on her 5th place in the Pierse, so she’s obviously improving fast.
Quite where the improvement will end is anyone’s guess, but she doesn’t travel as easily in her races as Rooster Booster and the champ’s winning rating of 176+ is one helluva target to aim at, given that it’s one of the highest ratings of the last 20 years.
Previous Champion Hurdle form is important in the big one itself and I reckon we’ll be looking at Westender, Rhinestone Cowboy and, if it’s soft, Self Defense as the more likely challengers in March.
I reckon it’s a tremendous shame we lost Valiramix in the previous Champion as he was on course for a similar mark to the Rooster and it would have been a sight to behold seeing the two greys go into battle up the hill.
As far as comparing Spirit Leader with Flakey Dove is concerned, I reckon it would be under-selling the Irish mare to do so. Flakey Dove won one of the poorest Champions of modern times. Spirit Leader is already pretty much on a par with Flakey Dove but she is unfortunate to be up against a true class act as well as several decent challengers. Still, she’ll be getting 5lbs, so another 5lbs improvement from last season would put her in second place.
Only eleven lengths behind you-know-who ;) <br>
(Edited by Maurice at 11:28 am on Dec. 1, 2003)
I try not to get ‘attached’ to horses. It’s not good from a betting perspective. But every so often something comes along and entrances you, regardless of its ability. Pendil, for his supreme jumping; Rummy, ‘cos he was Rummy; the Brigadier & Mill Reef for their sheer brilliance; etc. etc.
Rooster Booster was a frustrating beast for a couple of seasons. I was backing him because he kept topping the figures and was, on the face of it, improving but he always seemed to find something improving past him. I hated him! Last season’s debut run was the eye opener for me and after the Open meeting I was convinced I had seen a horse that nothing was going to get off the bit at 2m, and that was going to make him the champion.
I wouldn’t admit to loving the horse, but I love the fact that he bolstered my confidence in my figures so spectacularly. For that reason he’ll always be special to me. The fact I won more on the Champion Hurdle than on any other race in my life (more than the three next biggest wins put together actually :cool: ) means he will always be a personal favourite.
(Edited by Maurice at 7:22 pm on Nov. 30, 2003)
Self Defense might need conditions to be as they were at Sandown to win and I’d rather bet him each way than Rhinestone win only. The Sandown time was the second fastest of the year.
Rhinestone Cowboy, according to my figures, showed his best form of the season when third in the Champion. This is entirely as it should have been. He is entitled to improve again but he still has an awful lot of ground to make up. Yet he’s already older than Intersky Falcon, who looked very much on the upgrade approaching the festival last season but whose form has levelled off abruptly.
The Cowboy was reportedly race fit and highly thought of as a 2/3yo but ultimately didn’t make it to the track and ended up in bumpers in his 5-6yo season. If you were being unkind, you could argue that he had an age advantage over other NHF horses and was probably kept to bumpers to land a betting coup at the festival, connections aware of his age and class advantage. He’s also blessed with a classic middle distance Flat pedigree.
It was no surprise to see him transfer that smart form to his novice hurdles races but he never once put up a fast time in them, whereas his festival bumper time was the second fastest (by my figures, allowing for the going) in recent times. His time ratings for last year were progressive: 0, 0, 126, 138, and then 162 in the Champion itself.
According to Raceform, it was his inability to jump fluently at speed that found him out at the top level. He was under pressure at the top of the hill but plugged on.
What kind of campaign is he going to have? If they opt for another light one he could find himself in the same situation come March, struggling to get his jumping together at championship pace.
For me, the hallmark of Rooster Booster’s class as a hurdler is his ability to travel on the bit regardless of a fast pace. He has, at a late stage in his career, developed a very high cruising speed which isn’t inhibited by having to negotiate hurdles. He’s also proved he can accelerate off that fast pace. It’s a combination no other hurdle at the trip can demonstrate.<br>
It all depends on yourself! If you end up being good at it, it’s worth it. If not save yourself the effort and the time ‘cos it takes a helluva lot of both.
I rated the Christmas Hurdle via HLL whom I took as replicating his best previous rating of 157. This puts Landing Light on a career best of 160. It looked to me like LL would be a bit better again on a more demanding track (like Cheltenham), and he’s still improving, it would seem, so I have him on 160+p which makes him a definite contender.
If you really believe Valiramix had at least 10 lenghts in hand at Newbury then I’d reluctantly suggest (‘cos I’m Isty’s biggest fan) that you’re looking at the new Champion Hurdler.
I should start by saying my 2m hurdle ratings are looking at least as accurate as ever this season (since I abandoned the ne median race times as an element in the calculations and reverted to the old standard times) and have concluded the following, after the TGT.
Valiramix is now rated 158++ with Copeland improving to 156+p.
I did not see Valiramix’s Newbury race but the Raceform comment says ‘hard held’, so the ‘++’ would represent whatever the seasoned observer would reasonably interpret him as having in hand.
I had doubted Copeland’s Cheltenham win – wrongly, obviously – and his form last Saturday stands up to the closest inspection. I susoect the form is marginally better than my bare ratings, hence the ‘+’ and the horse is clearly improving, hence the ‘p’.
The two factors together normally account for an average of 7 or 8lbs up next time, so Copeland could well hit 164 should he run in the Champion (he’s a possible for the stayers’, apparently) while only those who saw Valiramix can guess at what he had in reserve: 10 lengths? More? at 1lb = 1l you can work it out for yourself.
Istabraq, at his very best, would be capable of well over 170, to put things into perspective. Having said that, he hasn’t hit a mark anywhere near that recently.
Copeland was visually impressive and the form will work out well (‘cos it always does in this race) but he’s some way behind (perhaps not as much as Esc or the BHB believe) Valiramix. If you thought this was a worthy Champion Hdl;e trial perhaps you should seriously consider getting your hard-earned on Valiramix.
Just a suggestion, not advice. I have no inside info.
Bacchanal did no more than the form book entitled him to do. I just doubt whether he will be good enough to win this particular Gold Cup.
I’m not convinced by Marlborough’s claims either. He didn’t get quite close enough for my liking on Saturday before lack of condition told. My short list for the Gold Cup at the moment would be (in no particular order)
Best Mate<br>Looks Like Trouble<br>Lord Noelie<br>See More Buisness (!!)
I think Lord Noelie is the percentage call this year but I haven’t backed him yet. I took a small EW on See More Business at 50s the other day in the hope against hope that he can put in one more good run when it matters. With First Gold out for the season SMB has the best overall form of anything else in training.
