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time figure for Roderic O’Connor suggests he’s an ok winner of the race.
Dubawi Gold was only 2lbs below his Newmarket speed figure, so absolutely no reason to think he was unlucky, as Roderic probably had more than that in hand at the finish.
That’s as good as Dubawi Gold is, and think those slating Richard Hughes have been a little premature.
The only way that Dubawi Gold can be considered fortunate at Newmarket was that he got a serious pace to run at, given how hard he has pulled all previous starts.
But just possible that he might not get a decent pace at the Curragh today, and could again run too free, will obviously compromise his chance of winning.
But if he settles, he has every right to be favourite imo.Personally think young Joseph is an excellent jockey and if Roderick is good enough, he will be.
Is it possible that this may be the last season that young O’Brien will be able to get anywhere near 9-0, (or presumably 8-10 actual weight?) and therefore only chance to ride a classic winner? Hence Coolmore’s decision to put him up on clearly their no.1 horse?southwell fibresand is definitely rolled or levelled between races.
Don’t think there is any treatment to the polytrack courses during racing, but not 100% sure
trying to get some clarification as well.
If both 7f and 8f starts have been shortened by 30y, shouldn’t the 1m standard time be reduced by more than 1 sec?
Zarkava, trends are fine if they have an underlying reason for them, rather than the stat itself, sure you would agree?
Why do you think horses who have run in a Guineas before the Irish 2000 have an average record at the Curragh?
Also do you have a record of how the English and French Guineas winners who showed up at the Curragh performed, as well as the placed horses?
roli, the WFA scale recognises, that in general, as a horse gets older from 2 to 4yo (on the flat), it gets faster as it matures.
The handicapper tries to rate the horse’s level of ability irrespective of age, assuming that it will get gradually faster as it matures.
Hence why younger horses need to have a WFA allowance from older horses of the same ability, slowing down the older horses to hopefully give them the same chance.
Hope this helps
ATR now, Liz Price very good.
Lydia Hislop one of the best presenters / journalists around and agree Clare Balding excellent (though had to dum down her racing knowledge to satisfy BBC demands to appeal to masses)
agree with Stilvi, have rated Elzaam at least as good as any other current sprinter in Europe.
He’s proven himself over CD at Ascot, and at 7lbs WFA, would only be afraid of the sprinters from abroad than over here.
16/1 looks massive to me.
Thanks also Cavelino, very interesting, especially on the official wind speeds.
On the subject of aerodynamics, if you had asked me beforehand, I would have said that the heaver, bulkier, even wider, stronger looking horses had more chance of surviving the buffeting effects of a strong wind than say the slimmer, more lighter framed horses.
But can also follow your logic that the latter might be better suited aerodynamically to running in strong winds.
However, I got the impression for example in the 2yo race on the Sunday that the big, strong looking Commissar was flattered by the winning distance because he was exactly that. And all the others, who looked smaller, just couldn’t cope with the headwind and you could have knocked them over with a feather?
In cycling, do the bigger, heavier (and/or physically wider-bodied ) racers have an advantage/disadvantage due to having more "stability" on a bike into a headwind or when suffering from a crosswind?
I guess the same question of traffic on the road. You hear of lots of overturned lorries due to strong wind. Guess there is a point at which the weight of the vehicle is no longer a stability provider, but a hazard due to larger size or area of the vehicle becoming subject to wind?
Yarmouth have a summer festival don’t they, or am I thinking of Brighton?
In Ireland, Galway, Listowel, Tipperary (?), Killarney, Bellewstown have 3 up to 6 day festivals ?
reet hard, you are absolutely correct in that the "going allowance" is whatever the collator chooses it to be. Which is why some may be better than others (or not!) at generating accurate speed figures.
If the wind seed varied from 16 on Sat to up to 32 Sun, agree you would expect that to make a difference.
I made it about 0.125 secs difference from Sat to Sun, a shade more than the 0.1 secs per furlong in the Racing Post.
Raceform had 0.15 secs per furlong quicker on Sat.This probably highlights that windspeed does indeed have an effect…. but not as much as we would expect even on half-ton of horseflesh…. which is what likes of Prufrock, Nick Mordin etc may be suggesting in the case of more typical lighter wind speeds or breezes.
Correct if I am wrong, but isn’t it the 110m hurdles where they prefer to have a very light wind speed AGAINST the runners in order to create optimum world record conditions?
timewise, the upside of Pour Moi’s win was that it was the fastest time (123.02 secs) over the 10f distance of Saint Cloud’s racecourse this century bar a ridiculously (hand) timed listed race in June 2003 which stopped the clock at 120.70. That must be wrong.
The downside of the day’s racing was that the 3yo filly Galikova apparently ran 2.30 secs faster than any other of 76 pattern contests held there since 2000 (and a massive 4 seconds faster than the 3rd best).
Given the filly ran 110 yards (presumably 100m) further than the colt, and took only 4.98 secs to do so, suggests Pour Moi clocked a very ordinary time….. or possibly Galikova a superlative one making her the new Zarkava.
Given the proximity of other fillies in the Prix Cleopatre, would deduce that Pour Moi clocked a listed level time at very best.
fwiw, speed figs for Thursday:
48.6 World Domination
43.6+ Seville
38.6+ Carlton House
36.6+ / 38.6 Genius Beast
29.6+ / 38.9 YaseerEach pt worth approx 3lbs.
"+" indicates 2yo speed figure, 2yos can be expected to improve anything from 5-10 pts at 3.
Not original, but suggests only the top 3 can be considered, cannot have Genius Beast, Yaseer etc on my mind.
Some people suggest World Domination "only" won a maiden and what has he achieved? But given World Domination clocked a smart time for a debutante at Newbury (backed up by the 3rd and 8th clocking a fair time in a Salisbury maiden nto) and his trainer indicating he would come on a lot for that (as he did with Frankel), this is a serious horse based on deed, not just the word of Newmarket gallops watchers.
Carlton House rates around 5-6lbs behind Workforce at similar stages of their careers, and can expect healthy improvement from a Stoute contender, but got to consider Seville the main danger to the proven 3yo form of the Cecil horse if the latter makes just normal improvement from debut.
Your timefigures have Native Khan as #1 on your list of Derby contenders? And Recital #2?
Yes, on this season’s 3yo figures to date, Zarkava.
Does not include the decent Racing Post Trophy time figures of Casamento and Seville.
Native Khan and Recital have improved their actual pure speed figures (which ignore WFA) from 2 to 3, as you would expect a maturing, physically stronger 3yo to do.
But it is not always guaranteed. eg St Nicholas Abbey whose close 6th in the Guineas and Ormonde Stks win do not yet eclipse the basic speed figure he achieved as a 2yo in the Racing Post Trophy.
Given their make-up and assuming all is right with them, it has to be very likely that Casamento and Seville will improve on their 2yo pure speed figures, just a matter of whether it will be enough to put them in the Derby picture.
Dave Edwards will probably have a cut off on his Going Allowance table where the "description" assigned to each range of going allowances changes….. and Newmarket last weekend (0.44 on Sat to 0.54 on Sun) probably crossed it.
A difference of 0.1 secs PER FURLONG, is significant in say a mile race, as much as 4 lengths.
As mentioned previously on here, Dave Edwards will know full well that the going was riding Good or faster.
But that the headwind ensured race times read more like good to soft or soft race times. The going allowance description assigned in the Racing Post and other publications is merely that automatically assigned by his computer to each range of going allowances referred to above.
Maybe Dave should consider some new descriptions to take into account wind factor, as this is clearly misleading to those who rely on going allowance descriptions instead of the official Clerk of the Course going descriptions?
As for wind being negligible to race times, well it’s pretty obvious to anyone, such as Drone when he/she is cycling, or to anyone who ever had to walk or run in a gale force wind, that wind speed makes a difference to how fast you can go and how much energy it takes to go a certain distance.
I think Nick Mordin in his book on compiling speed figures also suggested that wind speed was not relevant. Unless he is talking about very light wind, then this is clearly wrong.
Just watched both Pour Moi and Recital in their respective races this weekend. One was impressive, the other not.
I wouldn’t back Recital with stolen for the Derby. Very keen on my lad now.
fwiw Bobby, think Pour Moi has run a time figure around 9-10 lengths slower than Recital this weekend
