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Recently this had been a superb trends race but Canford Cliffs rather buggered that up last year. A blip due to an exceptional horse? Probably. I’m going to have to treat it that way. 2000 Guineas 2nd and 3rds were 0-5-9 between 1995 and 2009, a trend that’s offered lots of value as it’s eliminated several short-priced runners.
Runners who hadn’t run in a Guineas are 0-7-61 since 2000. In this renewal, just 3 entries ran in either the English or French Guineas – Dubawi Gold, Slim Shadey and Roderic O’Connor.
Like I said, 2nds and 3rds from the English 2000 Guineas have an absolutely abysmal record. Perhaps that’s down to those horses maybe being at their best while those behind weren’t quite fully tuned up. It was such a silly race this year. Obviously the winner put up an incredible performance but several horses will have been flattered by the way it was run and several will have disappointed by the way it was run, and Dubawi Gold, a dual-AW Listed winner this season, is a horse I simply have to oppose at 7/4. He’s also had 10 career starts – 15 of the last 16 had had between 3 and 8. The exception was Spectrum with 2 starts.
Slim Shadey’s best 2yo RPR was just 96. 16 of the last 16 winners had been given a rating of at least 99.
Roderic O’Connor does meet all the trends, but a 3/1 shot? He looked tiny and Newmarket and may have been flattered in the Dewhurst.
So we’re looking at obliterating all the trends and going for something that didn’t run in a Guineas.
Only High Ruler and Dunboyne Express of the others were rated RPR99+ as a 2yo, but the former’s a total no-hoper and the latter’s trained by an Irishman – the last Irishman bar Aidan to win this race was in 1991. They have a truly abysmal record – Oxx and Bolger have each saddled the runner-up 3 times from the past 16 years. Kevin Prendergast saddled Verglas to finish 2nd in 1997 and his runners have fared 6207734 in this race since 95. Not great. His run in the RP Trophy is just putting me off. Saffron Walden is the only 2000 Guineas Trial winner in the past 16 years to win this race too. Him and Recharge and Noll Wallop are the only ones to have tried though. Recharge finished 4th for Kevin Prendergast in 2009 and the latter finished 9th for Tommy Stack last year.
Will Master of Hounds run? I can’t see it personally. The draw has played a big factor in the race with double-number fields which unfortunately won’t help us this year.
Aidan O’Brien runners that have had just 1 outing that season in the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket have fared 3231224117. 2 of the 3 winners had won at Newmarket, Mastercraftsman unsuccessful.
This is just a horrible renewal and I’m totally lost. I hate doing forecasts, I really do, but I just can’t help but feel a Roderic O’Connor-Dunboyne Express RFC is the way to go. If you pushed me for the winner I’d have to say Roderic based on the trends, but personally I’d prefer Dunboyne. He should really have too much toe for Roderic.
Basiclally my thoughts mirror yours. Although he isn’t a trends horse, Dunboyne Express is the one i keep ending up on, with ROC a big danger. Is he another Mastercrafsmen?
I couldn’t have the favourite and am also of the opinion he was flattered at HQ – although i may potentially be proven wrong at the weekend you have to go with your gut.
I wouldn’t let the RP Trophy affect your thinking too much Zarkava – Dunboyne Express had a very rough passage that day, and in my opinion definately did not run his race because of it.
"Aidan O’Brien runners that have had just 1 outing that season in the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket have fared 3231224117. The 3 winners had all won at Newmarket."
Mastercraftsman?
I don’t know if Oracle is meant to be Roderick’s pacemaker, but I’ve had a little on him.
But in view of the generally lower status of Prendergast’s runners’, the betting on Dunboyne Express seems anomalous, and I suspect, quite a strong indicator.
No surprises at the 48hr decs, just Zoffany, Master of Hounds & the rag declared in error taken out. Joseph O’Brien on Roderic. Very strange decision.
Zarkava, trends are fine if they have an underlying reason for them, rather than the stat itself, sure you would agree?
Why do you think horses who have run in a Guineas before the Irish 2000 have an average record at the Curragh?
Also do you have a record of how the English and French Guineas winners who showed up at the Curragh performed, as well as the placed horses?
O’Brien junior on ROC? Really? Thats a strange one, a fantastic opportunity / mountain of pressure for one so inexperienced, depending on which way you look at it.
Connections are aware conditionals cannot claim in Group races i take it.
Zarkava, trends are fine if they have an underlying reason for them, rather than the stat itself, sure you would agree?
Why do you think horses who have run in a Guineas before the Irish 2000 have an average record at the Curragh?
Also do you have a record of how the English and French Guineas winners who showed up at the Curragh performed, as well as the placed horses?
I absolutely agree. I don’t use trends that can’t be explained.
I’m at work but horses who ran in a Guineas don’t have an average record, they have an exceptional record. They’ve won the last 11. Poulains runners are 4-2-6 from the past 16 renewals. The winners had finished 2317 in France, the placed runners 42 & 345096 the unplaced.
Right, horses who ran in the 2000.
Those who finished unplaced in the Irish who also ran in the English fared 5320130258220423247 at HQ.
Those who placed in the Irish fared 352020443446120 at HQ, while the Irish winners finished 107541153 at HQ.
What do we think about Joseph being given the leg up on Roderic then? Does it mean they consider Oracle stable number 1 for this race, or does it show blood is without doubt thicker than water?
I’ll be watching the market, especially on Oracle, with much interest.
Just giving him some more experience in Group 1s? Surely this means he won’t be competitive. The way they’re treating Seamus and Colm right now is disgusting, really puts me off them. Colm’s ridden her both times this season in England, so you’d think in Ireland that he’d keep the ride, but no. Seamus rode So You Think last time, yet he’s been jocked off, and he also rode Wonder of Wonders on both her Irish starts this season. And Moore’s been given the mount on all 3.
Roderic O Conner wont win on Sunday that why Joesph is one. He wont make the 9 stone either and probaly will be overweight in a Group 1. Why?
Because it gives his son a chance to enjoy a big day out on a Guineas Horse but John Magnier and Aidan know this horse has no chance of winning
DUNBOYNE EXPRESS
To win this race i like him a lot when he won his 1st 2 races last year.And this is the race for him.
All things considered (I wish), I think Rodders is home and hosed, with Del Boy (sorry, Dunboy) in third – the pair split by Dubawi Gold. Or should that be Trigger. Keep a lookout, oldies, for Roy Rogers.
Would it not be something for scions of two dynasties of the high kings of Ireland, the O’Briens and the O’Connors to carve it up between them! Especially with the Queen being descended from Brian Boru and all. But she’ll perhaps be home by then. But I bet she’d love to watch it at the Curragh.
I heard from an Irish priest that the O’Connors still fancy their barrow; which, I suppose, is not too surprising, given that many of them are lawyers.
Erin go Bragh
.. or words to that effect.
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