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Hey Treet – nice post. With that sort of knowledge, maybe you should have a bet every now and again.!
I think that you have the race summed up pretty well but I am still worried about her getting past a wall of horses and none of the jockeys will be prepared to make it easy for her.
I have backed Zenyatta and taken BLAME each way in the race. He has a great record at CD but will probably be the rabbit that Zenyatta chases through at the top of the straight (3rd place would be fine).
Just need the Euro top guns to take the earlier races and I will be able to just sit back and enjoy the spectacle with bulging pockets.
Will still take a Stella from you though out of the Pick 6 winnings..!
That Zenyatta tribute is the best I have seen so far – one to watch with the sound up..
With regards to SILKE’s question, I reckon this is a strong BCC field and ZENYATTA will have to be at her very best to come out on top.
HAYNESFIELD will obviously try to set a strong pace (and stays 10 furlongs) but unlike in the JCGC, he’ll have company up front with ESPOIR CITY and QUALITY ROAD (not sure he will stay or settle enough to ge into the stalls) keeping him company.
LOOKING AT LUCKY has improved again (should stay – won the Preakness over 1m 3/16th) and has just about got rid of the ‘Unlucky’ tag.
BLAME loves CD (has had 3 wins there but has not won over 10 furlongs) and will be running on late with Zenyatta.
Add MUSKET MAN, FLY DOWN and GIO PONTI (on Dirt..?) into the mix and it looks like an absolute cracker – cannot wait..!!
I’ve also never been to Churchill Downs but will be there in less than 4 weeks – UPS delivered the tickets today.!
As for the race, this will definitely be her hardest ever race and although I would just love to see her win – for the post race atmosphere more than anything else – I am slightly pessimistic.
It’s just finding the one that could beat her; I cannot have Looking at(un)Lucky. Won well in the slop last time but I would not be surprised if he didn’t make it to post. Just seems that sort of horse.
Quality Road certainly has quirks and is not for me. Blame blotted his copybook last time out but will definitely be a danger in a fast run race and I’ve backed him each way.
Cannot see any of the European horses being successful on the Dirt.
There you go – she wins by default..!!
HtH wrote,
"As for the middle-distance draw, I’m a couple of days behind on my stats but on my figures we’ve had 8 so far with varying field sizes. It’s interesting that the low draw has produced double the winners that a middle to high draw has produced in the 1m 16th races too (Theres been 25 races over that distance)"
It will be interesting to note where the European horses are berthed. If I remember correctly, the last time I came over (2002), just about all of our chances were left in the car park end of the Starting Stalls (including Rock of Gibraltar). Things seem to have changed though…
My thoughts on other races are nothing ground breaking but I will expect to come away from the track fairly hoarse on Saturday evening:
I know you are keen in Spanish Moon in the Turf but without Ryan Moore’s assistance, I just cannot see past Conduit again for this race.
Goldikova should be too strong in the Turf Mile – Zacinto has probably improved past Delegator but Peslier will ride Goldikova in a much different manner to the ‘warm-up’ 7 furlong race at Longchamp.
I have also backed Midday for the F&M Turf at decent prices. I know Henry Cecil has not had a winner in the BC but he has had a fantastic season and (based on gallop reports) it looks as though he been targetting this race for some time.
The other Euro wager I have is Lillie Langtry in the Fillies Turf. Obviously a decent filly but this is based on the name more than anything else… Read somewhere that the Ballydoyle camp have been saving the title for some time and to name the filly after the 1st woman to break the bank at Monte Carlo must be significant..!!?
What could go wrong..?
"As for the Turf itself, I do like Spanish Moon (as I said) but I’ll be even more confident if he gets a low draw. I think it’s very important to get a low draw the way the turf course is riding this year even though the race is over 1m4.
Nothing has won from anything other than the lowest 2 stalls on the turf over 1m2 or 1m4 so far this year."
HtH, That is an amazing statistic – to save me checking though – how any races have been run over more than a mile on the Turf as SA this year.?
Could definitely be worth waiting on the draw before committing in the Turf and the Marathon. Although I have already backed Conduit but could increase the stake..
Some interesting info in this thread that I have struggled to obtain elsewhere (although I go to a few of the big meetings, I am more of a football punter and do not study the horses as closely as I should). Corals are offering 6/1 on California Flag and based on your comments, I should get a run for my money at that price.
Just back from Prague and the Velka is certainly an experience..
Darren’s comments on the car boot sale feel certainly ring true – it is a bizarre set-up for a racecourse with everyone channeled through rows of stands selling everyone type of food & drink imaginable (but maybe not all of it exactly edible).
A magnificent performance by Vana – his lifetime stats are absolutely imcredible and his reception after the race was amazing. We were in the stand immediately opposite the winning line and I am not sure how the old, battered frame survived it (the stand that is not Vana).
The Tote system is very easy and managed to find a couple of winners.
But the abiding memory will be the stable lass of Gawain fighting to get across the course at the end of the 7th race and running non-stop to the far side of the track where the horse ambulance was in attendance for the stricken animal behind the screens.
The lasses parade in the jockey’s silks and she was still wearing the colours. From high expectation to utter despair..
I am certainly not a sentiment guy but it is an unforgiving track and it also looked as though a runner in the Velka suffered the same fate.
Cannot find any details though and for all I know, both horses recovered.?
Was also told that you had the opportunity to walk the course after racing but the security staff were having none of it. Maybe it was opened later but this didn’t seem to be the case (Darren, did you get across the track.?)
I certainly know, without any shadow of doubt whatsoever, if I owned a horse the class of Sea The Stars then he would not be allowed anywhere near the Breeders Cup.
But that is just my personal view and I fully accept others will disagree.
It’s horses for courses Paul, John Oxx and the owner will make up their own minds in due course.
From my perspective (a purely selfish one), I want to have my ‘I Was There’ moment in Santa Anita in 4 weeks time.
Personally, I really don’t care about stud fees and future progeny.
Of course it could go wrong but I don’t understand why anyone would want to deny themselves the opportunity of seeing the horse in public again because there will never be another chance.
There is now a ‘Spotlight’ section on the Pardubice website:
http://www.pardubice-racecourse.cz/dost … ntare.html
Will have to run it through a translator later.
Hope those odds do not include the stake, if not, the overround isn’t unbearable (@130%).
We have booked tickets for both days – just didn’t want to get there and and not be able to see anything…
Even with the price reductions, there are plenty of tickets available in all parts of the Grandstand & Club enclosures.
For a bit of variety we have tickets in the Club on the Friday and Grandstand on Saturday.
Don’t know if we will use the seats for all races, normally like a stroll around the facilities but at least we have all the options.
Hi AfleetTreet, I will be over in Santa Anita for both days but have to admit that I haven’t really spent too much time studying the cards – still a few weeks yet.
Obviously desperate to see STS take on your best but I think we have enough other runners to get a few wins on the board anyway but I am sure the USA punters know that and the odds will reflect this fact.
It may be blessing that Goldikova lost at the weekend – the UK bookies have relaxed the prices and she should take all the beating – although Europe have put together a really strong team.
I will some thoughts over the next few weeks.
Cheers,
LutherHi Luther! Thanks for the info – might see you on the train if my lift doesn’t materialise! I actually though the racing would start about 2:00 as per in Germany, so I had a bit of a shock when I saw the meeting would start at 11:10!! Ouch – I’m not very good at early mornings!! I get into Prague on Friday, so I was hoping to have a nice stroll round the place on Saturday. Might be in the company of a few thousand Poles though!
Darren – AngloGerman
Yes, with regards to the time, we had the same thought and planned a bit of sight-seeing on Sunday am (we do not arrive in Prague till Saturday evening).
At least it gives more time for a few celebratory beers in Prague on Sunday evening.
I understand that you can walk the course after racing so an opportunity for a couple of photos by Taxis and the Irish Bank.
Were did you get the odds for the Velka.? A local bookmaker.?
I also understand that there is no Czech version of Sport-Welt, so we will be punting in the dark (will probably make it easier for me)..Good luck,
LutherFrom a purely selfish point of view, I would love to see him finish his racing career at Santa Anita.
In fairness, he did not have a particularly hard race on Sunday (spent more energy in the 1st 2 furlongs than the last).
As someone said yesterday, in Chicago, Rock of Gibraltar was not beaten by the long season but by the draw and riding tactics (I know it was a different track and distance to the Classic).
As the trainer states, the BC Classic is over a month away and they do not have to rush the decision.
But this could well be the final commitment that Mick Kinane has to fulfil before hanging up his boots..
Hi Darren,
We exchanged posts recently re: Helmac and the May Baden-Baden meeting (wasn’t the most financially rewarding weekend)..
We will also be in Pardubice for the Velka on Sunday and taking a fairly early train out from Prague in the morning – there is one at 09:30 from Holesevice, which takes just over a hour – so that should be perfect).
I believe that the football kicks off at 20:30 so we should get a couple of peaceful hours in the City Centre.
Think that Paul Hamblin has a couple of rides during the afternoon.
dprp, some very interesting information on the journey out for the UK horses. I reckon that one of the UK horses could actually win it this year, maybe Mr. Big could go well after the Fontwell warm-up.
Really looking forward to it…
LutherThanks for the information Darren – most of the form in the newspaper and racecard is completely alien to me and it’s nice to have this sort of feedback.
Must admit, I was looking to back Rosenbrief this year but I imagine that the price will be prohibitive.
Yes, I remember the ‘Bank’ very well – we wasn’t expected the horses to climb that mountain..
We will be travelling out tomorrow morning, so will have the opportunity to take in 2 complete days racing. Must admit that I was not aware of the financial problems at Baden-Baden this year.
Disappointed that there is no UK/Irish interest this year (all the early entries have been pulled out) sure we will find some winners all the same.
Thanks again,
LutherAn extremely late reply but was checking through the runners at Baden this year to see if Helmac was making a repeat appearance and was saddened to read this post.
There was a crowd of us at Baden last Spring and the booking of Nina Carberry stood out like a sore thumb when we picked up the local racing papers on arrival in the town.
Helmac was quickly made the banker of the meeting with all of us having sizeable chunks on the German Tote. As Nina jumped the last, the chorus of ‘Whack the Helmac’ (to the tune of ‘Rock the Casbah’) may have been ever-so-slightly boorish and must have annoyed the locals but what the hell..!!
If memory serves me well, Helmac paid 3/1 on the Tote and covered a large percentage of the trip cost.
We will be there (in reduced numbers) this year but I’m sure it won’t be the same.
Fantastic memories – thanks…
