Breeder’s Cup 2009

HtH wrote,

"As for the middle-distance draw, I’m a couple of days behind on my stats but on my figures we’ve had 8 so far with varying field sizes. It’s interesting that the low draw has produced double the winners that a middle to high draw has produced in the 1m 16th races too (Theres been 25 races over that distance)"

It will be interesting to note where the European horses are berthed. If I remember correctly, the last time I came over (2002), just about all of our chances were left in the car park end of the Starting Stalls (including Rock of Gibraltar). Things seem to have changed though…

My thoughts on other races are nothing ground breaking but I will expect to come away from the track fairly hoarse on Saturday evening:

I know you are keen in Spanish Moon in the Turf but without Ryan Moore’s assistance, I just cannot see past Conduit again for this race.

Goldikova should be too strong in the Turf Mile – Zacinto has probably improved past Delegator but Peslier will ride Goldikova in a much different manner to the ‘warm-up’ 7 furlong race at Longchamp.

I have also backed Midday for the F&M Turf at decent prices. I know Henry Cecil has not had a winner in the BC but he has had a fantastic season and (based on gallop reports) it looks as though he been targetting this race for some time.

The other Euro wager I have is Lillie Langtry in the Fillies Turf. Obviously a decent filly but this is based on the name more than anything else… Read somewhere that the Ballydoyle camp have been saving the title for some time and to name the filly after the 1st woman to break the bank at Monte Carlo must be significant..!!?

What could go wrong..?

I was reading somewhere that the Americans reckon Zenyatta will start a short priced favourite and Rip Van Winkle will kick off around 4/1 or even 5/1 because of the local support for the unbeaten filly.

That’s difficult to imagine but when you consider Raven’s Pass (8/1) paid $29 for a $2 stake, Conduit (7/2) $13.60 for $2, Donatovium (11/2) $13.6 for $2 Goldikova (9/4) $5.6 for $2

But Zeyatta who paid $3 for a $2 stake was returned 7/10 here, clearly shows how differently they can see things.

I’m think we can access the American PMU through Betfair but I’m unsure of deductions but if the weight of American money for Zenyatta is going to push Rip Van Winkle out would it not make perfect sense to back both home and away or am I missing something?

Seems like a sound idea to me except one might not run. My friend will be in the USA promoting some machine that instantly develops old film negatives straight on to your computer and is going to try and get to the Breeders….be well handy if he can

If this race was a furlong shorter I’d consider flying to the states myself as I think Rip Van Winkle would be a certainty to get too far in front of her that she couldn’t catch him. My worry is he was so impressive over 1 mile I believe that is where his real strength lies and if Timeform have got it wrong 134 V 128 then she murder him over this trip.

It’s very easy to forget Rip Van Winkle has to travel 1000’s of miles and then race on a surface he may have worked on but has never raced on. We’ve sent better than him there, Dancing Brave e.g. and come home empty handed.

You dont even need to do that. All American Tote prices are available with almost every bookmaker as well as the UK prices.

You have an option and it’s easy to get the US prices.

When you analyse european candidates for the Breeders Cup, you must first ask yourself if their respective style will be suited to US racing.

That’s the one hesitation I have about Rip Van Winkle. There’s no denying his talent, but his winning efforts (though not necessarily his best) have come over eight furlongs when prominant and, Sussex Stakes in particular, dominating from some way out.

I simply can’t see him being able to dominate in a strongly run US race, nor do I expect connections to attempt it.

His one attempt at ten furlongs was scuppered only by the best thoroughbred in the world. No shame there, but he came to win his race and, defeat to a superior rival aside, he perhaps failed to truly see out the trip and / or was a little shy in passing a rival at the business end of the race.

I applied the same tactical hypothesis to Henrythenavigator last year and he ran better than I expected, but he was a tough, hardened competitor who found only the late stretch burst of Ravens Pass too hot to handle.

That’s where Zenyatta comes into the equation. Her mid-stretch burst is incredible and she will undoubtedly be suited by the pace of the race and the extra furlong.

Can the same be said of RVW stepping back up in trip?

John Shirreffs has been pushing Zenyatta to her limits at home in preperation for this event.

Are we to believe that, to use his own words, John Shirreffs has merely been ‘maintaining’ her form at home since she proved dominant against her own sex?

It’s certainly hard, regardless of competition, to keep a horse unbeaten after thirteen starts over such an extended period of time and perhaps this gives his statement some credence.

She hasn’t been hard pressed in her races, always winning with her ears flicking back and forth, whereas RVW has been well campaigned, taking in top class races between eight and twelve furlongs.

Zenyatta will need to improve, but with home advantage, the trip sure to suit and all the right noises coming from her connections, we could see something special next weekend as she attempts to surpass Personal Ensign’s record.

Connections could have opted for the Ladies’ Classic and quite easily beat her record, so it’s a sure sign of their confidence that they’re attepting to do so against the colts.

Know what you mean; I’d like Rip Van Winkle to win to show how good Sea the Stars was, but my heart wants Zenyatta to annihilate them. Lets just hope for a good race and for them all to come back safe!

Anyone know what allowances she gets?

I’d like Rip Van Winkle to win to show how good Sea the Stars was,

Mo
Had the Eclipse been at Santa Anita, RVW would probably have beaten STS anyway – which paints rather a different picture, imo.
The same run shows he doesn’t need to dominate, either!

I don’t get the point that you’re making..STS did beat RVW…and the Eclipse wasn’t at Santa Anita..we can run hypothetical races till we’re blue in the face but the fact is one horse beat the other which, on that day made him the better horse.