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At 4pm the assistant clerk of the course said it was still raining and a look at the weather satellite over York racecourse just now confirms that – I expect it will be genuinely good racing ground for tomorrow.
Unfortunately, we all know that good ground will not guick enough for Gleneagles so don’t be too surprised when he gets withdrawn at some point tomorrow…no doubt much to Aiden’s relief.
In my mind, I have GH beating Time Test with the weight for age concession relegating TGG to 3rd place.
I can’t go against GH here, I don’t believe in the Gleneagles hype machine as his collateral form is having big holes knocked in it at almost every turn. O’Brien has continually said that he is an out and out miler and I believe had ‘the boys’ not stepped in, O’Brien wouldn’t have had any part of this race.
As admirably tough and consistant as TGG is, he was simply outstayed at Sandown even when all the cards were stacked in his favour – I can’t see him reversing the places as this time the race will be run to suit GH instead, a place is the best he can hope for.
For me Gosden has covered his bases by including a high class pacemaker who not only leads GH at home but was also good enough to lead the likes of Kingman & The Fugue. He will ensure a good strong pace and I think GH will kick early up the straight to ensure there is no hiding place for the others – don’t forget that the race is run over 10.5F.
If GH is to be beaten, the most likely candidate for me is Time Test – he is the unknown variable that has to make the big jump up in grade but being an unexposed 3 yr old he may well still have that improvement in him to do so, I also think the race conditions will suit him as well.
I just hope that they all run their race and there is no hard luck stories.
Can’t be the only one but Annie Power checking out at the last meant my £20 accumalator on the first five races went south to the tune of over £2k – you can imagine the fact that I got my £20 back from Paddy Power with their ‘money back special if Annie Power loses’ really didn’t help improve my mood much!
With the exception of Lightning Spear, going in we pretty much knew the English runners form was exposed as not being good enough. This result is yet another knock to the form of Gleneagles, as Territories was easily brushed aside by the fully exposed but dependable Esoterique.
Had Solow been eligible to run (surely TPTB in France have to chuck that stupid rule out now), he would have laughed at that field especially on that ground, which I think he is crying out for. Shame we will not see Solow aimed at something like the Irish Champion Stakes before he takes in the QE2.
Given that he won the Dewhurst on soft ground, I would give a chance to Belardo at a big price.
Also on a strict form line, Lightning Spear’s run against Arod (slightly unlucky when only beaten 1.5L) would have seen him finished 3rd in the Sussex and being by that noted soft ground sire Pivotal, he should also appreciate the ground (never run on anything slower than good to soft, when winning last year).
If the official going report doesn’t mention the word firm in it, I don’t think Gleneagles will run. This is a much tougher race than the Sussex in which they withdrew him before it dried out back to proper good ground (based on race times), which they then still deemed not to be suitable.
However, as of 8:35am York Racecourse website now lists the going as good/good to firm in places (the racecourse map indicates the good to firm places are from 7F to 5F before the home straight and the relatively new section of the course after the winning post that runs round to join up to the main course). Heavy localised rain is also forecast for the area today but dry after that.
Depending on what happens today weather wise, will O’Brien and the boys make an early decision a la Goodwood or (if the predicted rain arrives) wait to see if the ground then dries out and decide on the morning of the race?
I was under the impression that Johnson was signed up to be somewhat of a feeder trainer of two year olds for Godolphin? Similar to how David Loader was back in the early days.
Couldn’t have Storm The Stars based on the fact that they haven’t been good enough to give him a deserved mid season break, I would expect a relatively unexposed fresh horse would win this and most likely it will be an O’Brien horse – god knows which one, as he has enough entered although it is interesting that he has included the super hyped JFK in the list.
Gosden has supplemented Dick Doughtywylie at a cost of £75k to ensure that GH doesn’t have do make his own running whilst Free Eagle has not been declared as expected.
Would we expect Lumiere to still be in Johnson care as a three year old?
Another performance like her debut in a better class race will surely see her shipped off to one of the boys in blue’s trainers.Juddmonte is looking to get Smullen for Time Test as Free Eagle’s conections say he is likely to go to the Irish Champion as his prep for his main objective, the Arc.
I am getting the distinct impression that he is a very difficult and fragile horse to train and given that he only made it to a racecourse twice in each of the last two seasons they may be tempting fate a bit by trying to get three runs into him this season.
Gleneagles fans also beware, even though York is currently good to firm at the moment, the latest forecast is for them to receive heavy rain from Thursday evening into Friday, although the long range forecast indicates settled weather with sunshine in 17C – 19C range. Wonder if this will prompt O’Brien to make another early call on withdrawing him like he did at Goodwood?
The only one that comes to mind was Lester on Rodrigo De Triano who beat Dr Devious into 4th in 1992
Sorry didn’t read you post properly as I thought you meant those that have clashed in the race at York!
10 mm of rain at Deauville & thunderstorms predicted to arrive before the Marois so it looks like their hand is being forced into going to York (although any sniff of rain up there & I fully expect the ‘boys’ will withdraw him) – the other names are pretty much confirmed to run (baring accidents), so fingers crossed any and all rain stays away from York, so we can get the race the public want.
http://www.racingpost.com/news/live.sd?event_id=10897524&category=0
Having taken a look at Gleneagles collateral form again (even on his preferred fast ground), I am even less taken in by the usual O’Brien rhetoric/spiel about his greatness. Only four horses from the 2000g have won a race since (Territories the only one at G1 level), the Irish 2000g form is even worse with only Convergence winning at G3 level and there have been no winners from the SJP!
He will have to do something rather spectacular at York in order for me to change my mind from seeing him as nothing more than a good horse (when the ground is fast). The problem for him is that fast ground at York will also suit GH, TT & TGG and they are already proven at the trip.
I expect to see GH having to do his own donkey work again but with York’s very long straight (longer even than Sandown’s), Dettori will have plenty of time to wind it up from far enough out so that GH’s stamina kicks in.
In name only as at 2M 6F it is not even a proper staying contest but now he is just missing the Scotish version from his CV – I saw an interview with Ruby afte the race and he commentated on the fact that they need a rule change as the 12 yr old now has to be retired as they can’t race beyond 12! He also stated that you couldn’t bring your lower rated horses over and expect to win these type of races either.
Jumps racing in Aus is virtually non exsistent, so I am not sure what impact this win will have on getting other horses travelling that kind of distance to compete. However, as Mullins was majorly involved in getting Ruby out there, he may well be looking into whether it is a worthwhile venture but I wouldn’t expect to see it happen anytime soon.
Don’t envy you on that undertaking as not only do you have to try and evaluate the form but also take into account the fact that the vast majority of French races have no pace of any sort and then turn into a 2F burn up……good luck.
The nearest UK racecourse with similar characteristics to both French courses would for me probably be Sandown Park due to its long home straight (around 4F) and its 5F (1000m) track that runs through the middle of the course (similar to the one at Longchamp).
Chantilly has a 3F home straight up to the winning post which is only slightly uphill right at the end – however, the straight then continues on well past the winning line (see the attached link to the racecourse map). It is the French equivalent of Newmarket being that it also is the main racehorse training centre & home to around 2500 horses.
All of these courses are what would be considered as big galloping tracks but Sandown has by far the stiffest uphill finish of the three. Interestingly Longchamp actually has four courses, one uses the inner loop, with two more using the outer loops & finally a straight 5F course.
Old Sandown Park course map (that even quotes the elevation changes):http://www.jpmaps.co.uk/mapimages/originals/36609.jpg
Longchamp course map: http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-pWdmXx0Gw28/VCvZtVgC88I/AAAAAAAAdMQ/bRr231woL1o/s1600/course.jpg
Chantilly course map (biggest one I could find): http://www.lescourseshippiques.com/cache/images/hippodrome/1/_/hippodrome.jpg
