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Nadiya De La Vega for me. Fit, in form C&D winner. Ground will suit even if it rains. Couldn’t have a better trainer and jockey. Right age and weight range, lightly raced and still room for improvement after a lifetime best last time out. Good EW bet at 16/1 in places.
Another horse I think is overpriced is Kingsmere. Couldn’t be confident about him after his fall last time but he too has lots of scope for improvement and is the right age and is at the right end of the handicap. I think 33/1 is a bit too big.
Can I ask an idiot boy question? Unless I’e read them wrong,all the rules quoted above about reserving names apply to horses registered in GB. Surely Camelot was registered in Ireland. Are the rules different there?
Like Sunnyhillboy for this. Was beaten by 1.25L by Great Endeavour over this trip at the 2010 Cheltenham Festival. Hasn’t had much racing – and very little luck – since then. Is now 14lb better off with the winner. I am sure he has one of these big handicaps in him. Had a nice prep over hurdles recently. Trip, course and going will be fine.
I have run the race through my computerised ratings/odds generation software.At the risk of becoming a laughing stock here are my top 5 rated with associated tissue odds (100% book):
Sizing Europe 11/4
Gauvain 11/4
Imsingingtheblues 7/2
Tatiano 8/1
Wishful Thinking 14/1This doesn’t look right does it as there must be serious doubts about Gauvain and (especially)Imsiningingtheblues having the class to win at this level. But I’ve learned from experience that the software is pretty good at identfiying overpriced horses. Last Saturday it had Carruthers and Great Endeavour as 11/4 favourites for the Hennessey and priced up Fair Along at 14/1 (Sorry about the aftertiming).
At the current prices I will be betting Gauvain and Imsinging each wayI like Hey Big Spender in this. Had a nice run round at Cheltenham on Saturday when 4th to Galaxy Rock off top weight . That looked like a prep as he was never put in the race. Most of his best performances have come when he has raced closer to the pace. Has beaten good horses like Big Fella thanks (level weights) and Fistral Beach (giving him 10 lbs) and on that form he is reasonably handicapped. He is rated 5lb lower than when he ran in the Hennessey last year when he went off too fast and faded. Still only 8 and has had only 14 chase runs so there is still scope for improvement. Will stay the distance and provided there is some cut I think he has a better chance than his odds of 40/1 suggest. May lack the pace to win but a definite each way bet at that price for me.
Edit:Just read in today’s Weekender that Colin Tizzard intends sending HBS direct to the Welsh National. Anyone who bets him for the Hennessey would therefore be misguided – like me!
Agree with Martin that Sentry Duty is most likely winner. Each way I like Colour Vision ( good draw, WFA favours 3yo over a trip at this time of year) and of those with a ""bad draw (remember the Cambridgeshire) Ashbrittle whose odds are just too big.
Gerryke
If you are comfortable with the racing post approach to form and ratings Raceform Interactive might be best for you. But if you are looking for something a little different you might want to take a look at Proform Professional which is possibly the best kept secret in racing as hardly anybody seems to know about it. It covers all racing Turf, AW and National Hunt in Britain and Ireland.
It comes with a massive database and a whole raft of form and speed ratings.You get daily updates of declarations and results. It is easy to research form, going and distance preferences, and running styles for every horse and also pace and draw bias at each course. It also has a built in systems builder which has given me hours of (often profitable) fun.
There is so much in it that it is a bit of a scary beast but you soon get into it if you start playing with it.I have been using it for 3 years or so and wouldn’t swap it for anything else.I don’t have a link for it to hand but if you google it, it will pop up.Now that the decs are out, I’ve run them through a computer program I have that generates ratings and an odds line. The top 9 rated horses and their odds(100% book)are:
Questioning 7/1
Stevie Thunder 7/1
Dare To Dance 9/1
First Post 9/1
Albaqaa 14/1
Pintura 16/1
Nanton 20/1
Circumvent 20/1
Shavansky 20/1I think Questioning has a lot of improvement in him and is the most likely winner . But at the available prices Stevie Thunder, First Post and Albaqaa all look interesting each way ( 5 places).
ST ran very well in this race in 2009 , finishing 6th, beaten 3.5 lengths. He didnt seem to get home that day but looked a stronger horse when staying on well to win over a mile on good to soft ground lto. Has won on fast ground; 40/1 is available.
FP ran 4th in the best trial for this at Newbury last saturday, in contention before running out of petrol inside the last. Drop back to 9f should help if that race hasn’t bottomed him. Going is no problem; 50/1 is very big.
Albaqaa looked a big improver when winning at Goodwood lto. Has been kept for this and trip/going are fine; 25/1 is generous.
Haven’t taken account of any potential draw bias in this. That could ruin everything as could a going change.
My eye is taken by Grand Slam Hero in this. Was in great form this time last year but was poor in autumn and winter. As a result his handicap rating has slipped to a workable level and on his best form he is now fairly handicapped. Ground won’t be a problem and he has won over 3m 3f so today’s trip shouldn’t bother him. Best of all he has a very good 7lb claimer on him in Adam Wedge. This guy is obviously inexperienced but has put up some impressive performances- has a 15% strike rate in chases (30% this season). GSH might be a light of former days and could well finish down the field but at 28/1 I am prepared to risk a modest each way bet
Gaz
I don’t think the big weight in itself would stop Menorah winning. Three horses carrying 11st 12lbs have won in the last 10 years so its obviously not impossible for him to do it. I just think that on their form together at Aintree, and at the weights, General Miller might well beat him again. Of course, Menorah might have been over the top at Aintree, or he may be much better suited to Cheltenham, in which case the form would be misleading….
I think I’m confusing myself now!
Sanctuaire may well be good enough to win this, but it is much tougher than the race he won so impressively at the Festival.I think others in the race have better form in the book at present. 4yo don’t seem to do particularly well in the race (1 winner in the last 10 years).At the likely prices I prefer to look elsewhere.
My shortlist is General Miller, Manyriverstocross,Any Given Day and Sure Josie Sure. GM has the beating of Menorah on their form at Aintree ( and through him Get Me Out Of Here). He is proven in this class likes the course and the probable going and his brilliant trainer is in good form. He would be my first choice unless it pours with rain when I would favour Manyrivers whose stamina would come into play. I may well save on the other two. AGD is an impoving young horse in fine form and has the benefit of a recent run. SJS could be a blot on the handicap. On her last run she beat Nearby by 21/2 lengths getting only 3lb. On sunday if Nearby runs ( doesn’t look as if he will) he will be giving SJS 21lb. Nearby has obviously improved hugely since they last met but there must be at least a chance that SJS has got in lightly despite the big rise in class she faces.
Given that Long Run has made jumping errors in every race he has run in this country I wouldn’t want to back him at 7/2. If he does that again in what is always a fiercely contested race- and I think he will under his inexperienced jockey – he will struggle to give weight to the potential improvers lower down the weights. I think the winner is most likely to be either Great Endeavour or Sunnyhill Boy whose form when 1st and 2nd in the Byrne Group Hcap at the Festival was very solid. The race was run in a faster time than the Ryan Air which took place on the same day. They are both young and lightly raced, used to the hurly burly of competitive handicaps and won’t mind the likely ground. At the current prices I would favour Sunnyhill Boy.
At bigger prices I like the look of Tatenen and Pickamus each way. Both are lightly raced, could improve, and look reasonably handicapped. Pickamus’ run over hurdles at the October 23rd meeting looked like a prep race for this . 50/1 is tempting but he is also entered for a race on Friday so best to wait and see if he runs.
Finally, if it pours down with rain, The Sawyer would be interesting despite being 10 years old and fully exposed. A slog round Cheltenham is right up his street.
Apologies for banging on so long!
Fist
Thanks for the welcome and the info about Nacarat. I know that the value price approach isn’t everyone’s cup of tea but it’s the only one that works for me. I ‘ll try not to annoy you too much!
Hi Guys
As far as I can recall this is my first post on the Forum, so be gentle with me!
Being a very ordinary judge of form I rely on a computer programmeI’ve developed with my son ( a computer geek)to asses these big races. For what it’s worth my top 4 rated, with value prices, for the Charlie Hall are:Barbershop 7/2
Nacarat 7/2
Tother One 8/1
Master Medic 10/1The prices are based on an 80% book so in theory should give us a 20% edge. The6/1 available against Barbershop looks a cracking price to me, while Master Medic looks a decent EW bet at 20’s. Stan James offer 10/1 against Nacarat but I’m not sure he will run.
