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Are you sure you can get this from the betfair data files – not the fracsoft ones? Surely you can only look at last matched outside 10 mins to last matched pre off?
Ok, not
all
of it comes from the Betfair site.
Ok fair enough, best of luck to you anyway. My money says if you do the same analysis for the same period in 2011 the results will have either flipped around or the whole thing will start converging towards 0. Time will tell but I’d be fairly confident in my assertion.
In the interest of fairness, I think you should caveat your posts before anyone goes off downloading the dirty and inconsistent betfair data files. They are like having half the pieces of a jigsaw without the picture!
Thats the price
exactly
10 mins before the actual off time.
Are you sure you can get this from the betfair data files – not the fracsoft ones? Surely you can only look at last matched outside 10 mins to last matched pre off?
Hi Mike,
This has probably been touched on in other areas but do you think the massive growth of in running betting has put more pressure on commentators?
Cheers.
You can also twist the odds in your favour by emplying a variation of the Harville formula, but not enough to make the bet pay higher than the expected outcome.
Mr Frisk – The odds of the favourite, finishing position of the favourite and the overround have a massive bearing on the declared dividend.
I suppose we will have to agree to disagree. Your condescending attitude is frustrating and the only bet I had in Punchestown yesterday was Otay Kawn.
Beaten by the better horse.
Fascinating insight, and you call me a joker! Fionnegas was the most incompetent ride of the week bar none.
Not jealous to be honest, have never had any aspirations to be a jockey.
What would have happened if hurricane had not got there?
I thought he was very poor on Hurricane Fly, there isn’t a jockey in Ireland or the UK who would give Solwhit 6 or 7 lengths as easy as that. Imagine if he had been beaten a nose – he would be shot, why no send him on coming into the last or earlier.
The ride on Fionnegas was worse, he thought he only had one horse to beat and didn’t reckon at all for Reve de Sivola. Fionnegas is a dour stayer and won’t be able to quicken if something comes with a wet sail after the last. From 3 out yesterday the only way he could be beaten was pilot error and that is what transpired.
Russell got that beat, not the horses fault..
I could not disagree more to be honest. The best horse won on all known form and the way the race panned out. The have finally figured out that Cadspeed jumps and travels better when allowed to bowl along in front. Gates of Rome, on the other hand, seems to be better held up and delivering one challenge, which he has got away with on bad ground but it’s not as easy on decent ground.
I don’t usually time jumps race, but I went through my (hand) sectionals, and even though I have no bench to compare today race to, it seems Mullins went plenty quick enough in front. Russell came to win his race, wasn’t good enough, and dropped away while the winner won going away even after hitting the last.
I rarely defend Russell and he does plenty of very odd things, but, in my view he did absolutely nothing wrong on Gates of Rome.
It’ll be well worth following Stack & Wayne Lordan over the next few weeks with Ballydoyle very slow from the blocks as they usually are at this time of year.
I would imagine that there will be no value to be had on any Stack horse in the next month. Rather than following them, the best strategy is perhaps to lay all them blind. For what it’s worth I genuinely think his runners on yesterdays card were poor value especially Ballygologue.
Re: Dunguib – I think that there is still 6/4 availble for what looks an incredibly weak Supreme (20s bar 2, and good and all as Menorah might be I think he is second favourite by default) says a lot. Also, if by some miracle Dunguib did turn up in the Champion, I would love to see how anyone could make him shorter than Go Native, Solwhit, Punjabi or Zaynar to name but four. He has bags of potential but that allied with bumper form should carry a health warning. Anyone who likes him for the Champion must consider him an absolute lock in the Supreme and if you do best of luck but he’s not for me.
As for Voler la Vedette, I think there’s plenty of hope for those of us who think the form isn’t worth a sausage:
1. Go Native was conceding 9 lbs.
2. The ground that day was worse than soft and suited the winner a lot more than the second.
3. Noel Meade has reiterated many times that he had done very little with Go Native since Tipperary.
4. Carberry never even asked the horse a question.Also, I thought Voler la Vedette was a little disappointing in Leopardstown. Granted she didn’t settle well and maybe didn’t stay but did look in trouble for a few strides. The two Harrington horses (who stable has been woefully out of form for some time now) would be tailed off in any Grade 1 (I’m aware of Zarinava’s form last season but the horse seems to have gone sour since.)
Anyway, should be a cracking race whoever runs!
I fancied Binocular last year but didn’t have a bet, I rarely bet in The Champion Hurdle, but he’s not shown anything this season to make me think he’ll win it the 2010 renewal. Neither did Kirriemuir in 1965 of course, co-incidentally also third the previous year.
Until the trainers of either of the outstanding Irish novices, Dunguib, Voler La Vadette, come to the obvious conclusion that there is no outstanding hurdler in this years Champion Hurdle I’d be very wary about risking any Ante Post money……that said, Cashman’s 4-1 Dunguib with a run sounds very generous but this might be one of these years where something so far unconsidered comes out of the left field, one that’s managed to avoid interuptions to its preperation from the weather.
I’d advise waiting to nearer the daySpeaking of Kirriemuir – there are plenty of horses who were placed in a Champion Hurdle who went on to win it the following year – Punjabi, Brave Inca and Hors La Loi III in recent years.
However, I feel that stat is more to do with second season novices than anything else. The fact remains that it takes an exceptional second season novice to win championship races and while Go Native has done that twice this year it’s possible that it could be a chink in his armour come March. I think he is a real good thing for Champion Hurdle 2011, and think he deserves to be favourite for this years and feel he might just pull it off. He could be exceptional.As for Dunguib and Voler la Vedette. Dunguib at 4s with a run for Champion Hurdle glory is ridiculous – he would be an 8s or 10s shot. Voler la Vedette has become something of a talking horse. Her from isn’t up to scratch whatever you you slice it. I also think that Quevega is a better mare and if Willie Mullins thinks he can’t win a Champion hurdle with her then there isn’t a mare in training who could.
