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When I started punting 35 years ago, I soon realised that SP’s were the left-overs …….. the prices that those punters on the course were NOT prepared to take. I quickly adjusted my betting style to account for this.
Nothing in the interim years has changed — anyone who is content to accept SP has only themselves to blame for any shortfall. It’s a free world — you make your choice and accept the consequences. Who buys a car or any other commodity without shopping around? <br>Go racing — or go on the exchanges!
And all this talk about 2%, 3% etc over-rounds per horse on SP is deluding themselves ( or perhaps unconsciously trying to justify their constant annual betting losses) because at the hard coalface of making a balanced book at the races, such over-rounds are not in existence in a quickly changing and volatile market.
Yeah, well done Aidan. An excellent four-from-four.
However, not putting a damper on your achievement or anything (didn’t you just know that a qualifier would follow to my initial praise ! :biggrin: ) but do keep in mind that your prior record was 3 winners from 13 selections. This funny ol’ game has a habit of biting you in the bum — just when you get lulled into thinking that it is so easy-peasy you can suffer a right stuffing.
Heh, your myspace states "aidanldrebin has 0 friends!!!. Aftertimers seem to share the same sad fate as Billy-No-Mates’ for some strange reason. :cool:
I’ve always been a little ambivalent about Paul Cole since reading — oh, 7 or 10 years back — that his establishment was voted the Worst place of employment in a survey by the Stablelads Association ???<br>Conditions sounded something akin to a Sugar Plantation from the 18th century, but I guess things have changed for the better by now.
(Edited by hoofhearted at 3:38 pm on May 16, 2007)
Quote: from Smithy on 12:10 am on May 9, 2007[br]
however, there is more to pricing up a race than whispers and gossip and i would like to see hard evidence that Ladbrokes odds compilers are any shrewder than their counterparts (it may well have been the case a few years ago but I would challenge it now).
Smithy, you could well be right. Perhaps the field is levelling out between Lad’s and their competition. It could be that I am possibly over-influenced by Ladbrokes undoubted sharper edge in the field in years gone by, and I accept that maybe nowadays the field is more level between the Big 3. Maybe I am too over-influenced by past occurences and am failing to see the wood for the trees, as it were.
Tomorrow, I will keep an alert eye on oddschecker.com for every race and see if I can determine whether Ladbrokes "shorts" and "longs" are borne out by the race results. I can only do this for the afternoon racing unfortunately. I will particularly note any outstanding Ladbroke discrepancy price (relative to the rest of the spread of bookmakers listed) and see if this gives an indication of the winner/loser of the particular race.
FlatSeason, <br>Quite honestly, I take so very little notice of what Channel 4 says — and even less of what McCririck says!
But I do, rightly or wrongly, take cognisance whenever Ladbrokes "short" or "long" a horse. I never mentioned Ch4 or BigMac ………. someone else did. But, I am absolutely convinced that Ladbrokes have a channel into certain training establishments and have a symbiotic and mutually beneficial relationship with the principals of these "unnamed" establishments.
Yes, I am a leech — a parasite! I admit to reaping the benefits of Laddies superb Intelligence network by taking due diligence of their subsequent prices. I find it as rewarding (and a lot less time-consuming) as concentrated form study.
Quote: from FlatSeasonLover on 1:37 am on May 8, 2007[br]
…. so I’m game for an experiment if you are. When I get a free day, I will look at the prices at 11:30 and make a note of every horse they are longest and shortest about and see what level stakes profit/loss you would make. Then we can decide one way or the other would you agree?<br>
FlatSeason,<br>An interesting challenge, in principle.<br>However, using Hills/Corals as a benchmark comparison to Ladbrokes prices would I believe, lead to false conclusions. Hills or their Corals counterparts are not noted for "giving much away".<br>Now if it were P Power or Cashmans etc, the experiment might prove to have some merit.
For instance, Kauto Star @ 13/8 with Laddies for the Gold Cup did seem averagely generous in comparison ton Hills/Corals, but when contrasted with the 5/2 on offer from Chronic(le) Bookmakers it was positively skinny.<br>
Quote: from stevedvg on 8:17 am on May 8, 2007[br]They are also very much clued in to the goings on at the Aidan O’Brien yard. ÂÂÂ
This I agree with.
I often use it as a barometer.
Aha! Snap!!!<br>Adagio is owned by Coolmore, is it not?
So, coming from your opening statement to the Original Poster (quote: "I think you’re a f***ing idiot" ) you now seem to have turned full circle and appear to be agreeing with him.
Diss it all you wish, Flash, but quite seriously the "system" works for me! <br>Call me paranoid, but, I’m at the stage where I give equal consideration to Ladbroke’s prices as I do to form study. If they oppose a particular horse, I too am inclined to walk away from it. I’ve learned that lesson well (to my cost).
Nobody will ever convince me that Bookmakers DON’T have a "line" into certain stables……… and not necessarily just the small yards. IMHO, Bookmaker Intelligence ( as opposed to Army Intelligence) is not an oxymoron.:biggrin:
AP, may I ask …………….. what kind of ballpark figure would we be talking about regarding "meetings get SIS coverage and thus the full payment from the shops." ? Would, say, Cartmel get the same amount as Newmarket?<br>I really would like to know.<br>Thanks in advance,<br>Jack C.
Maybe so Marx, but was the opposition in this years Tetrarch any more than ordinary?<br>The only other serious contender that I considered to be in the race was Top Class, and when that one drifted like the proverbial barge out to double figures from 4’s then, well ……………
I’m not sure I can agree with your assesment of Creachadoir staying 10f. He patently didn’t stay in the Ballysax over 1m 2f. His best performance to date I reckon was over the mile when winning the Leopardstown Guineas Trial last month.
Quote: from FlatSeasonLover on 8:53 pm on May 7, 2007[br]And Ladbrokes aren’t the sharpest its just they are the only high street bookmaker with the bottle to lay horses at standout prices.<br>
But, would you accept that this particular Bookmaker quite often "knows"?<br>Do you accept that Ladbrokes maintain no-risk accounts for certain trainers?<br>There is nothing libellous about this statement — because it has been freely admitted — but, I’m sure that you recall Papillon re the National some years ago. Ladbrokes were quite happy to lay 33’s for a £1,000 to Ted Walsh as they subsequently were confident to "short" their "best price" on the horse at 14’s while the rest were going 25 and 33.
I’m with Rock Hopper on this ……….. my personal rule is that a horse becomes a Lay for me if the Magic Sign opposes it. A rule that has served me well over the years!
Good ol’ Spottie! A legend ……….. as is his rider (on this side of the water anyway)<br>Honourable mention can be given to his trainer also — winning TEN consecutive La Touche cups is no mean feat.
LOL at Grasshopper ……….. don’t you know that Rishk Of Thunder is a Shtrong Gale! <br>Funny how the Sportinglife site gives R.O.T.’s owner as "Not Shpechified" !!!!
Em, I cannot find this market on any of the exchanges.<br>I’ve been searching for "POPE IDOL — THE RIVALS". Is this correct?<br> :cheesy:
Quote: from Ian Davies on 6:48 pm on Mar. 9, 2005[br]Btw, why do you seek advice on these problems on the internet?
Perhaps because he (Irish Stamp) sees this place as a community of friends (or at least acquaintances) which he can tap-up for independent and impartial advice. Seems reasonable enough IMO. "Sometimes you can’t make it on your own"…………
For what it’s worth, Stamp mate, I cannot see why you feel obliged to keep paying the rent when you are not an occupant anymore. As you’ve been forced out via intimidation and understandable discomfort resulting from an individual bully, then, cut all ties — and that includes rent payments. F*** ’em, and move on with your life. If the landlord comes after you for "fulfillment of contract"– tell him you’ll have your day in court. Final year at Uni ……. you don’t need this grief!
Heh heh, Wilson, yeah……..
Thanks for reminding me of that. When those "Gatlin Boys Came Callin’ " didn’t it completely re-inforce your belief in the inate manliness of the individual whose wife has just been raped? …….NOT!
"Promise me son,<br> Not to do the things I done ………."
Jaysus.
I’m old enough to remember Bobby Goldsboro’s "HONEY" when it was released back in 1967. I recall hearing with bemusement the lyrics for the first time and I find just as vomit-inducing today as it was back then. E.G.,<br> <br> "She crashed the car and she was sad,<br> And so afraid that I’ld be mad,<br> But …..what the heck.<br> Though I pretended hard to be,<br> Guess you could say she saw thru’ me,<br> And hugged my neck".
<br>Further along during the course of the song the eponymous "Honey" dies. sic:
"And a small cloud passes overhead,<br> And cries down on the flower bed,<br> That Honey loved.<br> And see the tree how big it’s grown,<br> But friend it hasn’t been too long, it wasn’t big.<br> And I laughed at her and she got mad,<br> The first day that she planted it, t’was just a twig"
Hard to believe that this crapness actually made No 1. No accounting for human taste, I s’pose. <br>
Just grabbed LGR’s PM at this minute ……
In case he is not sitting at his PC, may I take the liberty of posting up the selections here? UNfortunately, one selection has already run in the Ling 12.50
CARL 2.55 THE LAST CAST<br>CARL 4.05 VULCAN LANE<br>LUD 3.50 TIZI OUZOU<br>LUD 4.25 MACGEORGE<br>LING 12.50 KINSMAN<br>LING 3.05 QUANTUM LEAP
Regards,<br>Ice.
