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If any of you Zenyatta fans want to lay me a price for her not to get placed..pm me. Nothing big like.
Why don’t you just lay her TBP on Betfair?
I am also interested in Gladiatorus in the belief a reproduction of the Dubai form would be more than good enough to see off this lot. The best you can get over here is 12/1 – can someone advise where to look for the US odds?
There aren’t yet any US odds as such. They have just predicted that he will be a 20/1 shot – could be accurate or well off depending. Simply a case of using their Pool betting system on the night if you want to back him at US odds
There are just sooooo many negatives for RVW – just can’t see him doing it
I’m still very sweet on Gladiatorus for the Mile – morning line odds of 20/1 also look tasty
Beethoven and Alfred Novel worth a few quid at big prices too I reckon
I really like Gayego and Father Time but they both look like being shorter than I wanted
Jimmy Fortune must be gutted
Jocked off Raven’s Pass and Donativum last year, and this year he loses the rides on Rainbow View, Dar Re Mi and Pounced
Is this ‘non staying’ RVW over 10f the same RVW that stormed home in the final furlong of his only try at 12f? If STS had pulled out of the Eclipse and RVW had won by 4l would you still say he didn’t stay? He stays every yard of 10f and more
Twist Magic and Nacarat both place lays I reckon. TM won’t see it out and Nacarat needs duther and a flatter track
Ashley Brook abd Panjo Bere are the 2 outsiders of the field but I could see both going well
Just had a large e/w on
Ashley Brook
@ 16/1 (William Hill). I know he’s getting on but age aside he should arguably be challenging for favouritism here.
During his career his seasonal reappearance runs over hurldes/fences reads: 11131, with 3 of those 4 wins being at Exeter. His 4th win was a 20l romp at Cheltenham over hurdles. And the 3rd place finish was arguably his best run of the lot trying to give plenty of weight to Kauto Star and Monkerhostin in this race 4 years ago.
He handles any ground, he loves being fresh, he loves Exeter and he is only 2lbs higher than when winning this race last year. The main concern is whether age will have caught up with him over the summer. At 16/1 I’m very happy to take that chance. Obviously there are some progressive looking sorts in there but they are priced up according to their potential.
Any layers out there should consider laying Twist Magic and/or Nacarat TBP. As stated earlier on in the thread, Twist Magic’s legs will have turned to jelly by the time they jump two out and he’ll do well to finish let alone place. And I think Nacarat not only needs 2m4f+ but is also a stone or more better on a flat track.
Just had a call from my bank literally 20 mins ago stating that they just wanted to check with me that my a/c (the a/c I use exclusively for betting) was okay because, whilst there were no suspected fraudulent trasactions as such, there had been an "unusually large number of transactions in the past few weeks".
I explained to them that I use the a/c purely for betting and that what with the Breeders Cup coming up and antepost bets for the national hunt season/Cheltenham, this was obviously a very busy time of the year for me. Guy seemed a bit confused! Never had a call like that before
Anyone else had many calls like this?!Twist Magic and Nacarat both place lays I reckon. TM won’t see it out and Nacarat needs duther and a flatter track
Ashley Brook abd Panjo Bere are the 2 outsiders of the field but I could see both going well
It’s all part of there marketing strategy something that is clearly way above your head
Clearly
I hope i’m not made to eat my words, but if Gladiatorus went down to single figures then i think that’s a good price to lay at. Too much is being made of his win LTO.
I was personally talking up his chances for the BC Mile before his win last time out. So I’m actually a little annoyed that he ran and won in Italy as it’s caused his price to shorten and more people have gotten on board. Would rather he had gone to the BC with 3 heavy defeats in a row to his name as he’d shown me plenty enough on his previous run in France to suggest he was on the way back.
I’ll probably play in a lot of the races but the horses I am currently planning on having ‘proper’ bets on are:
Father Time
Gayego (NAP)
GladiatorusObviously a lot of the discussion on here has been about the Classic but what are people’s favourite bets in the other races?
Yes Hard Held, think I might take the 10/1!
I haven’t yet but will do. No rush as he won’t run until December.
Having said what I’ve said it does look like being a cracking Arkle with horses like Captain Cee Bee (think he would have won the 2009 Champion Hurdle if he’d been fit and aimed at it), Crack Away Jack, Sizing Europe, Tataniano etc.
But I just think Mikael is something very special. Might see if a boomkaker will give me a price on him for the 2011 Gold Cup too!
As far as Mastercraftsman is concerned it’s two barreled. AOB has voiced serious concerns about Mastercraftsman acting on the surface even although he was ok at Dundalk he got no real test there. Ladbrokes have some sort of promotion going and Mastercraftsman is a lost leader to attract new customers. They get a free bet on the race and 25 quid at 7/2 is the main bait.
As far as current customer’s are concerned try getting 7000/2000 and see how far you get.
How on earth do you know this to be the case? A loss leader lol
Ladbrokes are invariably either bottom price or top price on Ballydoyle horses depending on whether they fancy them or not. And whether they fancy them or not comes to a large extent from Mike Dillon who is well connected to Ballydoyle. It’s no great secret.
HH
It’s probably no coincidence that they are also largest on Zenyatta in RVW’s race.
Well yes, in fancying one market leader I guess they have to oppose the other market leader. Hence why I took their 6/1 Zenyatta a few days back (5/1 now). I don’t overly fancy Zenyatta but having her on my side at an attractive price seems like the right thing to do.
On the night I’ll actually be looking to oppose both Zenyatta and RVW. I’ll also be opposing horses who don’t have Turf/Pro-ride form so that rules out Summer Bird, Quality Road etc. too. Will therefore be going against the top 4 in the market.
GIO PONTI
is the one I like the idea of most. Has improved no end this year, consistent, solid Grade 1 turf form, won on Pro-ride, 14/1 – what more do you want?
A horse who has no right to win a BC Classic but who I couldn’t rule out is
TWICE OVER
, who will likely be an enormous price in the US. He’s 14/1 here but I could see him being more like 40/1 in the US on the night. He may not be the classiest but he is tough, stays well and has that all important Group 1 turf form.
Zenyatta 6/1, Gio Ponti 14/1, Twice over 30/1+ – I’d be plenty happy enough with that book of bets on the race
It’s no secret that Ladbrokes know what is going on at Ballydoyle and it’s very interesting to see how they have priced up the stables two main runners for the BC.
In the Classic they are lowest price of any bookmaker on RVW @ 5/4 (horrendous price! Generally a 7/4 shot elsewhere – still a short price in my opinion). In contrast they are easily the biggest price of any bookmaker on Mastercraftsman for the DIrt Mile @ 7/2 (no bigger than 5/2 elsewhere).
This would indicate that team Ballydoyle seriously fancy RVW but don’t like the chances of MCM.