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I’ll probably play in a lot of the races but the horses I am currently planning on having ‘proper’ bets on are:
Father Time
Gayego (NAP)
GladiatorusObviously a lot of the discussion on here has been about the Classic but what are people’s favourite bets in the other races?
Gayego is a great bet at the 5’s available. It should be a direct match up in the final few furlongs
Graeme, I agree with you on Glad I hope he doesnt feel rejuvinated with a return to a full circle track though thats the only danger. Everything is right for him to win if he is still good enough. Cowboy Cal will be tracking him.
I backed Gayego a few weeks ago at 6, aswell as Fleeting Spirit at 14s.
With regards to Gladiatorus being rejuvinated because of the track, nah i don’t see it to be honest. If it was in Dubai then fair enough, i just think it will be swept aside by better horses.
I don’t see the need for having a first and second choice race. Surely they should all know what races they’re sending them to. All this double nominations is just about trainers trying to deceive each other.
Quite like Informed Decision for the F&M Sprint 3/1. Let me check my notes ermm….turf sprint Yankee Injinuity at 33s because of the price, consistancy and it has ran on a similar undulation before…Mastery at 4s for the Marathon…Mishipman 16s dirt mile…Goldi evs Zacinto 6/1 for the mile…Rainbow View 16s for the classic for the price plus she travels well and i think 9f will suit…juv turf Viscount Nelson 9/2 & Pounced 10/1…F&M turf Midday 5/1…Juv Filly Lillie Langtry 5/1…erm let me see what else……RVW(10s) & MTB for the classic, i though MCM would have ran in the BCC so that’s tits up…..
I know i’ve backed to many Euros, but i have got a few Americans in there. Sometimes i just take what i think’s a decent price. I don’t put big money on compared to others(think they’re all between £10 and £30), and my stakes are inconsistant so it can all easily go tits up.
http://i34.tinypic.com/2qbu82x.gif
Come on RVW
I hope i’m not made to eat my words, but if Gladiatorus went down to single figures then i think that’s a good price to lay at. Too much is being made of his win LTO.
I was personally talking up his chances for the BC Mile before his win last time out. So I’m actually a little annoyed that he ran and won in Italy as it’s caused his price to shorten and more people have gotten on board. Would rather he had gone to the BC with 3 heavy defeats in a row to his name as he’d shown me plenty enough on his previous run in France to suggest he was on the way back.
Fair enough but i’m not 100% sure if they would have run him in the mile if he didn’t win in Italy. Could be wrong though !
Nice selections Graeme, nice prices too!
I’m similar to you – I don’t back big purely because I can’t afford to.
So far i’ve got…
Interactif 9/2 (J Turf)
Forever Together 4/1 (F&M Turf)
Gayego 5/1 (Sprint)
Spanish Moon 6/1 (Turf)
Zenyatta 6/1 (Classic)
Chocolate Candy 12/1 (Dirt Mile)I’m very strong on how much improvement the F&M Turf distance brings out of Forever Together. The ESPN stream of the 2008 renewal has the 200m line marked out on the track and past that line she showed an exceptional turn of foot. She hasnt run over the same distance since.
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Reet,
Fair play on the Sandown comments. I still wouldnt say Santa Anita is a poor stamina test – it still is but in a completley different way.
However, your comments on Zenyatta are still strange. Whilst I appreciate everyone has their own opinion, Zenyatta is an absolute beast over the Santa Anita track, improves ten-fold when running over 9f, is unbeaten against a plethora of decent fillies (Shes beaten everything she’s been put up against) and has raced off all kinds of speeds.
The pure fact is that this is NOT RVW’s ideal circumstances and is more suited to Zenyatta who has had all of the experience possible on the surface. This is completley different to the Curlin of last year who hadnt run on the pro-ride before. She will get a strong pace to run at which, in all honesty, is all she needs to run her kind of race. She wont have a problem with the trip either as she’s won more races coming 4+ wide on the home turn than any other way.
Santa Anita is a specialist track and last year we didnt have a specialist in the Classic.
Are you basing this RVW opinion on the fact that grass horses seem to run well on the SA Pro-ride? Please please please just watch some of Zenyattas races on YouTube or wherever you can – shes not even been tested yet.
hth
I’m aware of Zenyatta’s record and appreciate she’s a very high class mare. However, probably her hardest race to date was in last year’s BC where she won – no more than comfortably, imo – by 1.5l from Cocoa Beach. Seasonal debut apart, CB had lost just 1 race from 9 at that point –beaten 4l & 4l by 2 colts
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Impressive speed or not, Zenyatta still has to show she can produce and maintain it against much the best field she’s met – and over a different distance. RPR’s wouldn’t be the best guide to foreign form, but she has yet to produce one within shouting distance of any of RVW’s last 3.
I wouldn’t envisage RVW having any problems with the surface (I doubt he’d be running, otherwise) and feel that a sharp, flat 10f (Which Santa Anita is – however you dress it up) on a fastish surface is just about his optimum circumstance.Reet,
Quite how that was Zenyatta’s hardest race to date I’m not quite sure?
Here’s the link to the race you talk of http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b6ucnV4RjBU
I’ve just watched it again to try and see why that was her hardest race and all I see is Cocoa Beach, Music Note, Santa Teresita etc under strong whips and urging and all Mike Smith does is tap her once at the 200m and away she goes – the rest is hands and heels and, as they say, history. Cocoa Beach is a great filly but she’s no Rachel Alexandra, Ruffian or Goldikova (a mixed bag yes I know).
Another video (sorry to bore you with these by the way everyone) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wiKc8j5tUZo …..Thats this year, The Milady Handicap run over 1m1f. Look what Smith does to her in the final few yards. He’s pulling her up and she’s stretching away.
If she doesnt get 10f I’ll eat my hat, come on here 10 minutes later and say ‘Hey Reet, you know what, fair play you were right’ and if Rip beats her i’ll say even more like that. However, I think she’s going to get it. Shirreffs and Smith are both adamant she’ll get it and, for all their sometimes egotistical rambling, so do the majority of the US pundits.
Lastly, I respect you for putting up with my ramblings here. I’m by no means saying she’s a cert but purely that she’s a lot better than many, many people give her credit for. I apologise if I’m coming across as a bit of a twit or offending you but I’m just very opinionated
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Being an expert on these things
I can see Reets point, Mike Smith had Zenyatta pretty much flat to the boards that day and I doubt if he had smacked her she would have found much more.What you have to take into consideration is the fact everything would be spot on for that race being a Classic and he has ridden her to beat what’s in front of her. Mike Smith was always in control with the leaders in sight and had something better been in the race and gone sooner no doubt he would have also gone and still won.
That may seem a bit silly but when you have a horse like her under you it’s all down to at what point do you want her to get into top gear and jockeys ride to beat what’s in front of them and no 2 races are the same.
Anyhow that was a year ago and like most horses she will have improved considerably by now and looking back 12 months and using that as a form guide is hardly a perfect way to calculate how good she is now. She did beat Cocoa Beach a lot easier in her latest run.
Anyway she’s not there yet and we should find out today just how game the owner is. She has to take the colts on and go a furlong further, Rip has to prove he really does stay 1m2f and on a surface he has never raced on.
Damned if I know which will win if they meet.
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As far as Mastercraftsman is concerned it’s two barreled. AOB has voiced serious concerns about Mastercraftsman acting on the surface even although he was ok at Dundalk he got no real test there. Ladbrokes have some sort of promotion going and Mastercraftsman is a lost leader to attract new customers. They get a free bet on the race and 25 quid at 7/2 is the main bait.
As far as current customer’s are concerned try getting 7000/2000 and see how far you get.
How on earth do you know this to be the case? A loss leader lol
Ladbrokes are invariably either bottom price or top price on Ballydoyle horses depending on whether they fancy them or not. And whether they fancy them or not comes to a large extent from Mike Dillon who is well connected to Ballydoyle. It’s no great secret.
Those were the days…I think you should get up with the times mate……Mike Dillon’s connection with Ballydoyle has been of some concern to the jockey club for quite some time. So much so they proposed a new rule over a year ago covering the association between bookmakers owners and trainers.
Ladbroke’s laid 4/1 about Yeats for big money in the Gold Cup "Fact" St Nichlas Abbey was a big loser for them "Fact". Whatever happened in the past happened but nowadays Mike Dillion’s association with Ballydole has no influence whatsoever on prices put up by Ladbrokes.
It’s common knowledge Ballydoyle are very concerned about the surface for for Mastercraftsman and that he’s had more than a couple of very hard races this season. Ladbrokes don’t need Mike Dillon to tell them that.
There is not a day goes by the aren’t 1/2 a point to a full point on some race or another longer than everyone.
It’s all part of there marketing strategy something that is clearly way above your head
It’s all part of there marketing strategy something that is clearly way above your head
Clearly
Just had a call from my bank literally 20 mins ago stating that they just wanted to check with me that my a/c (the a/c I use exclusively for betting) was okay because, whilst there were no suspected fraudulent trasactions as such, there had been an "unusually large number of transactions in the past few weeks".
I explained to them that I use the a/c purely for betting and that what with the Breeders Cup coming up and antepost bets for the national hunt season/Cheltenham, this was obviously a very busy time of the year for me. Guy seemed a bit confused! Never had a call like that before
Anyone else had many calls like this?!Three horses are already out.
Kodiak Kowboy (a big sprint contender)
Allicansayis Wow (Filly & Mare Sprint)
Dave In Dixie (Juvenile)http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/53250/three-horses-withdrawn-from-breeders-cup?utm_source=BreakingNews&utm_medium=email
Change of plans. I’m going to share Wesley Wards extreme confidence and back Cannonball for the turf sprint !! I didn’t have him down as the arrogant type, but he has been on this occasion ! this particular horse was unlucky at Ascot and can come good for this un after a rest. Cali flag goes off fast, and i prefer a horse like Cannonball that closes in which he does.
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Just had a call from my bank literally 20 mins ago stating that they just wanted to check with me that my a/c (the a/c I use exclusively for betting) was okay because, whilst there were no suspected fraudulent trasactions as such, there had been an "unusually large number of transactions in the past few weeks".
I explained to them that I use the a/c purely for betting and that what with the Breeders Cup coming up and antepost bets for the national hunt season/Cheltenham, this was obviously a very busy time of the year for me. Guy seemed a bit confused! Never had a call like that before
Anyone else had many calls like this?!It’s not unusual nowadays HH as banks must report any single transaction over a certain amount in or out to the Money Laundering division of which ever country you are living in or at least explain or provide proof to them what the money is for. All to do with drugs and of course 911 as Osama left his mark worldwide.
Here it’s about 36,000 pounds. They can ask you to provide paperwork, such as an invoice, a screen shot of your account or a website where you are making a purchase. They attach that to your transaction and it keeps them right. Lots of people use wallets like Moneybookers or Paypal to avoid letting their banks know they are gambling for obvious reason. I understand they say they buy and sell diamond rings or whatever on Ebay.
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Well my idea of getting my mate to back RVW for me in the States has fallen flat on it’s ass, Trips been canceled
Could still back him via Betfair but decided not to.Suppose I could lay Zenyatta off but I’ve decided to stick with her. They say she’s never beaten the colts but she’s never raced against them and no filly has ever really come close to beating her.
All horses go through this stage in their careers. None other than possibly the greatest horse of all time Seceteriat "couldn’t possible win" when he was stepped up in class. He started at odds against and the unbeaten fav was long odds on……..He gave the fav 6 lengths start and the hiding of his life.
Zarkava was another many said wasn’t good enough and even Sea the Stars had people saying he had never taken on a 4year old at a suitable trip.
The fact is Rip Van Winkle fell short of our best at 1m2f and we can’t be sure if Sea the Stars wouldn’t have beaten him just as easily again had they met for a second time over a mile.
The big plus for Zenyatta is nothing has ever beaten her and all she knows is how to win. Another plus is the extra furlong, her jockey can afford to relax her, conserve her energy and give them a start….It’s all down to when he can produce her and if he can do so entering the straight I think she’ll win and win easily.
Rip Van Winkle had his limits exposed by Sea the Stars in the Eclipse when he failed to quicken at the vital time. It’s hard to judge if he improved because he got better from there on in or it was simply the drop back to the mile but I’m pretty confident it was the latter.
He hit the front about 4 out in the Sussex but I can’t see the being so bold here. No one knows American tracks better than the American and if he goes that soon I think he’ll have to be 100% certain to stay and be a sitting duck. I reckon they will have to go just before the bend into the straight to try and catch Zenyatta out and ensure Rip gets the trip……what swings me to stick with Zenyatta as they will have worked that much out for themselves and will ensure they have the move covered’ I’m hoping by the time they hit the straight Zenyatta will be in top gear and I just can’t see Rip Van Winkle doing much about it.
Zenyatta by 2 lengths for me
G/l All
I can see Reets point, Mike Smith had Zenyatta pretty much flat to the boards that day and I doubt if he had smacked her she would have found much more.
Could still back him via Betfair but decided not to.- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.