- This topic has 19 replies, 11 voices, and was last updated 16 years, 6 months ago by
.
- Posts
A cracking day’s racing at Exeter tomorrow, and the feature promises to be an interesting contest.
Twist Magic could win if he consents to put the effort in, but I find it difficult to back him with any confidence nowadays. He didn’t go well in this last year, and I sometimes wonder whether he even stays 2m properly, let alone the 2m11/2f of this race. I did read he was a doubtful runner and the weights might go up, but now sure how accurate that is.
I’m a massive fan of Nacarat – his Racing Post Chase win last year was stunning. He’s also reported to have thrived over the summer. However, he needed the run first time out last year, and I’m tempted to oppose him here, albeit reluctantly.
I’msingintheblues was admirably tough for a novice last year, and won at Doncaster against more experienced rivals. It will be fascinating to see how he gets on here.
Nothing would please me more than to see Ashley Brook repeat last year’s win, but he’s just not consistent nowadays, and runs like a horse with a problem most of the time. Both he and last year’s second Mahogany Blaze look up against it as this looks tougher than last year’s renewal.
Planet of Sound wasn’t too far off the best of last season’s novices, and could go close here if he’s fit and ready. He has shown a liking for a flat track in the past.
Oh Crick is improving fast and is a course winner over hurdles. He ran well first time out last season and will be many people’s idea of the winner, including mine.
Cornas will need to have improved, but that’s not impossible and so you couldn’t rule him out. Panjo Bere was a disappointment last year after his Ascot success, and needs to bounce back.
Conclusion: A tight race. A small win bet on Oh Crick for me.
If i was havin a punt id go with Oh crick aswell. If the ground has alot of cut then Panjo Bere dosen’t look too bad at 16s each way.
I think the ground will be heavy, even if thats not the official description. Its a wide open race on paper though.
Twist Magic wont like the ground, nor will Nacarat, although he will have enough stamina if fit.
Planet of Sound had Cornas (7th), Imsingingtheblues (8th) and Panjo Bere (11th) behind when running 3rd in the Arkle and given the weights should be able to see off all 3 assuming all runners are fit. However, Cornas made a mistake at a crucial time 2 out in the Arkle when going well and might just be able to reverse the form. Not certainly though.
I think Oh Crick might prefer better ground and Alan Kings horses have looked in need of first run (Lake Legend at Kempton today one such example).
Ashley Brook has excellent record fresh but isn’t getting any younger. Won this last year beating Mahogany Blaze who is also very good when fresh.
An interesting race, and given the ground could be testing, Cornas may be the one given he has had a race, even if he did fall.
Panjo Bere it is then if the ground’s gonnae be a bit cut up. 16s seems fair enough.
Twist Magic and Nacarat both place lays I reckon. TM won’t see it out and Nacarat needs duther and a flatter track
Ashley Brook abd Panjo Bere are the 2 outsiders of the field but I could see both going well
Twist Magic and Nacarat both place lays I reckon. TM won’t see it out and Nacarat needs duther and a flatter track
Ashley Brook abd Panjo Bere are the 2 outsiders of the field but I could see both going well
Just had a large e/w on
Ashley Brook
@ 16/1 (William Hill). I know he’s getting on but age aside he should arguably be challenging for favouritism here.
During his career his seasonal reappearance runs over hurldes/fences reads: 11131, with 3 of those 4 wins being at Exeter. His 4th win was a 20l romp at Cheltenham over hurdles. And the 3rd place finish was arguably his best run of the lot trying to give plenty of weight to Kauto Star and Monkerhostin in this race 4 years ago.
He handles any ground, he loves being fresh, he loves Exeter and he is only 2lbs higher than when winning this race last year. The main concern is whether age will have caught up with him over the summer. At 16/1 I’m very happy to take that chance. Obviously there are some progressive looking sorts in there but they are priced up according to their potential.
Any layers out there should consider laying Twist Magic and/or Nacarat TBP. As stated earlier on in the thread, Twist Magic’s legs will have turned to jelly by the time they jump two out and he’ll do well to finish let alone place. And I think Nacarat not only needs 2m4f+ but is also a stone or more better on a flat track.
I’ve tied to come up with a pick for this…but it’s just too trappy, nothing stands out.
Should be good to watch
What a crap post!
Zip
Twist Magic and Nacarat both place lays I reckon. TM won’t see it out and Nacarat needs duther and a flatter track
Ashley Brook abd Panjo Bere are the 2 outsiders of the field but I could see both going well
Just had a large e/w on
Ashley Brook
@ 16/1 (William Hill). I know he’s getting on but age aside he should arguably be challenging for favouritism here.
During his career his seasonal reappearance runs over hurldes/fences reads: 11131, with 3 of those 4 wins being at Exeter. His 4th win was a 20l romp at Cheltenham over hurdles. And the 3rd place finish was arguably his best run of the lot trying to give plenty of weight to Kauto Star and Monkerhostin in this race 4 years ago.
He handles any ground, he loves being fresh, he loves Exeter and he is only 2lbs higher than when winning this race last year. The main concern is whether age will have caught up with him over the summer. At 16/1 I’m very happy to take that chance. Obviously there are some progressive looking sorts in there but they are priced up according to their potential.
Any layers out there should consider laying Twist Magic and/or Nacarat TBP. As stated earlier on in the thread, Twist Magic’s legs will have turned to jelly by the time they jump two out and he’ll do well to finish let alone place. And I think Nacarat not only needs 2m4f+ but is also a stone or more better on a flat track.
Excellent post.
- Total Posts 17716
I certainly wouldn’t be place-laying Nacarat.
Though he has an aversion to Cheltenham, he did nothing wrong over this c/d last season when 2nd to the much fitter Private Be, and though the King George is his main target, he is reported to be much more forward this season than he was then.
He has also improved a couple of stone since, loves soft ground, and lacked nothing in pace when hosing up over a similar trip at Doncaster.
I really cannot see him being out of the first 3.- Total Posts 17716
Like Benny I have my doubts about Twist Magic staying 2 miles’ If it’s an even pace round Exeter there shouldn’t be a problem’ The question is how fit will he be for this? He’s won first time up 2 from 3 so under normal circumstances you would have to think he would be. Much has been made of PN not producing his normal quota of winners but he’s had a 20% plus strike rate over the last fortnight so certain horses are obviously fit.
However the ground description has me worried g/s-soft on the chase course to heavy on the hurdle course. I’m giving Twist Magic a miss simply because if the ground is holding at all he won’t win.
Stable companion I’msingingtheblues has his limits and may be placed at best.
Old Crick must have been disappointing Alan King at the start of last. He stepped him up in trip after 2 unsuccessful tries at 2m. But credit where credit is due when dropped back to 2 miles he was one of the race winner at both the Cheltenham and Aintree festivals.
The worry is will he need a couple of runs before we see the best of him again? Alan Kings form is a little bit in and out as well so I’m bypassing him.I’m a big fan of Planet of Sound but he may not be as well in as some pundits reckon. He would have to be at his very best to win this IMO and I doubt if Hobbs will have him far enough forward to do so.
Mahogoney Blaze is hard to back but ew he’s a fairly safe bet most of the time. I just can’t get enthusiastic about his chances of actually winning.
At first I was confused by Tom George’s decision to run Nacarat here. He was brilliant in the Racing Post Chase but that was over 3 miles. However he only ran 4 times last season the first being at Exeter over this trip. He drifted badly in the betting that day and ended up a well beaten 2nd after leading most of the way.
I think if he had needed a run Tom George would have found something before now for him. He doesn’t have many good horses so he’ll be all out to snatch a good prize like this before the season gets really going.
I’d love him to win for Sam Thomas who deserves much better than the hand fate has dealt him.
I reckon Sam will set off in front with possibly Ashley Brook for company,make as much a test of stamina as possible and have most of these in trouble before 3 out. That will see Twist Magic in trouble for starters, Planet of Sound doesn’t find much of the bridle and hopefully Sam can keep enough in the tank to fend of Old Crick.
Nacarat
for me plus a rfc with Old Crick
- Total Posts 17716
Given the extra rain that’s fallen this morning, this has become a proper test, and Nacarat should pass it with flying colours.
Conversely, the testing ground will all against Ashley Brook’s suspect stamina and I’d be surprised if he’s in the first 3.I don’t think Nacarat will be 100% today and also doubt the undulating course will suit him – didn’t think he jumped that well in this race last year. Trappy race but I’ve backed Cornas e/w despite not being Daryl Jacob’s biggest fan.
Was just pondering a bet on Panjo Bere when the phone rang; followed him last season, and he’s got his ground today.
- Total Posts 17716
I don’t think Nacarat will be 100% today and also doubt the undulating course will suit him – didn’t think he jumped that well in this race last year. Trappy race but I’ve backed Cornas e/w despite not being Daryl Jacob’s biggest fan.
Good judgment and very unlucky mate. Nacarat certainly wasn’t fit he drifted out of the race as quickly as he did in the betting. Must just be one of those horses who can’t get fit without a run.
Not too sure about that, he has a decent record fresh, which convinced me enough to do my dough.
Planet of Sound had Cornas (7th), Imsingingtheblues (8th) and Panjo Bere (11th) behind when running 3rd in the Arkle and given the weights should be able to see off all 3 assuming all runners are fit. However, Cornas made a mistake at a crucial time 2 out in the Arkle when going well and might just be able to reverse the form. Not certainly though.
I should have listened to myself, lol!
- Total Posts 17716
Nacarat certainly wasn’t fit he drifted out of the race as quickly as he did in the betting. Must just be one of those horses who can’t get fit without a run.
Can’t have that at all Fist.
As a horse whom his trainer says "is best kept fresh" anyway, and whom he’d made clear he’d prepared him for this race from some time ago, he went from travelling and leading like the good horse he is 5 out to stopping like he was shot before 4 out. Whatever his problem, I’d doubt very much it was fitness.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.