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Good to soft john, missed the worst of the rain, chance of some light showers now, but unlikely its going to be worse than good to soft
Yeah ginge but the pool of trainers to have every single horse owned by someone different is t a possibility, your always splitting them in the hopes of winning two guineas than one, if he ran all of them in the british guineas the result would have been what? The exact same as what it was…. So its completely invalid
Opera singer isnt here because she was injured earlier in the season and no trainer in all likelyhood is stepping what they view as there star 3yo from 7f-1m upto 1m4 round epsom with no prep…
So she wouldnt be here atall
The same way economics isnt going to the derby, whos he trained by again?
Met office shows the racetracks getting it between 1-4 mike with a slight break in amongst those times
Search for the racetrack specifically on the met office app
Flex, as said above moores chosen, ylang ylang, but aside from that, even if he though rar was a better horse, hes always selecting the horse rated 15lbs higher unless its an experience ride (which in this event it obviously isnt)
He wont have it wrong either mike, ylang ylang will win by half the track as her rating sais she should and if she doesnt, we could have the lowest rated winner of this…. Ever?
Ah come on now FF, you dont believe that, theres nothing lurking in this field, 3 runs is plenty to have an idea about whats there, 4 runs is handicap material
I mean if your suggesting that its better to have a far lesser quality field but a more diverse training rank, than a vastly superior quality field and less diverse trainer rank id say your in the wrong game
Its horse racing.
Aslong as the trainer runs them against each other (which he categorially does) then its irrelevant where they come from, there outsiders or lesser fancied ones often beat there #1s
You can pretend that some of these have room for improvement if you like, the highest rated in the field being the fav at 112 then absolute daylight to the rest, is depressing for an oaks
Similarly for the derby we have a tailed off fav lto over a distance half a mile shorter, thats the state its in
Well done darren with the 33/1 on LA, i must admit, i had him picked out for this as i said but i never put a penny on and i did see him at the 33/1 at the time, which now feels silly
So ill just watch
I think he’ll win this well, deira mile to place would be an angle
But ill leave it off, likely wont bother watching it, some state the flat is in currently, its rotten
Good chance this is the worst oaks ever ran, cant remember looking at an oaks and derby field as bad as these two, this is particularly bad, handicap material
Coolmore would rather win the irish 1000 guineas with her than at royal ascot… so im unsure about this being a “prep”, win or lose, obviously should she lose thattl be the excuse they use, but shes here to win an irish classic… not for a prep, regardless of the drift, regardless of the “sources”
Youd have to be happy with river tiber yesterday fto and generally speaking theres more FTO winners coming in for obrien now, not sure id share in the concern near a month after the british guineas (it was definitely apparant then, not sure if its as prevalent now)
We’ll see
I find it hard to believe that @13/8 if there was money around youd be a backer but at 6/1 you would touch her e/w to 4 places, the maths not mathing on that one, even by your own metric the percentage chance she finishes in the first 4 at 6/1 has to be far greater than the chance she doesnt and at that price, should she run to form, your gaining an incredibly large edge that she might against a large field generally rated a stone below her
The front 3 in the market really ought to be finishing in the front 3, this is a very poor race outwith them, im a bit dumbfounded that opera singer is out to 4/1 and ill need to be a backer at that price. Needing the run or not the price is completely incorrect, should be half that price
Was a big fallen angel fan but that run LTO didnt convince me she had trained on atall and couldnt be backing at 7/2
Vespertillo is the one i cant catch right, wouldnt be rating the french race that highly imo
The rest surely arent upto winning a guineas
Ah thats harsh stilvi, the winners worth more than the distance, im a big levey fan but that wasnt his best, winner would have and should have won that a fair bit easier than he did
Some price on rosallion lads, got none of it myself, wont be beaten, as you said nathan, RT wont be staying the mile, even if he did, hes not in the same league
True ginge regarding wind speed etc, id agree,
i wasnt expecting him to come out to 2/1, hadnt gave such a drift a thought, if anything i thought he’d be evs at best
As stilvi has alluded too, theres rags in this at short prices, none of which would have a prayer in the derby, if AW cannot dispose of this lot, there wont be a derby winner amongst it
Ill need to be backing him at 3s or 2/1 now, hes just too big to let it go now
Has a rounded knee action, but has won well on good, the ground at newmarket in october was listed as soft, but the time suggests it wasnt that soft either
Good ground should be fine, surprised hes come out to 15/8
7/1 gods window without the fav & al musmak, think the price is just wrong, only has caviar heights to beat imo, the rest are poor
Not sure id be as forgiven ff , looks very awkward, dont think she was given the best ride either, so possibly thats a factor but i wouldnt be backing her in a hurry
I thought id have a sweat with the lay tbh
