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Oaks 2024

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  • #1661243
    Avatar photoIanDavies
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 12996

    While the eyes of the world were possibly focussed elsewhere, I was impressed with Opera Singer at The Curragh today and I’d say the 28/1 with BetWay (which incredibly I was able to organise obtaining) is potentially fair.

    As short as 10/1 elsewhere!

    I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
    https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Davies_
    https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/
    It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"

    #1661244
    greenasgrass
    Participant
    • Total Posts 7859

    She looked super didn’t she? Lovely big filly. Ran a bit faster than the colts in the previous race, even though she had nothing to race against in the end.

    #1661259
    Avatar photoIanDavies
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 12996

    I agree.

    Cut to 16/1 by BetWay now and 25s best with those lovely people at 888Sport (who decline so much as a penny of my business).

    I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
    https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Davies_
    https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/
    It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"

    #1662544
    Avatar photobotchy1
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    • Total Posts 6201

    Classical Song @ 33’s :heart:

    #1665165
    Mike007
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    • Total Posts 8027

    Opera Singer 16-1

    #1665176
    Avatar photoCork All Star
    Participant
    • Total Posts 9304

    17/2 Opera Singer.

    Lucky old Mike getting twice the price. ;-)

    #1665304
    Avatar photoCork All Star
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    • Total Posts 9304

    I see Mike did not rise to the bait.

    Which bookmaker laid 16/1 against Opera Singer after the Marcel Boussac yesterday?

    I checked Oddschecker. To be fair it was showing as 16/1 with 888 Sport but everything else was 8/1 or shorter (my 17/2 was price boosted from 8/1 by Ladbrokes).

    I do not believe that 16/1 was available. Even if it was laid, it would surely be in error. No bookmaker is going to offer twice the market price.

    What bookmaker is going to lay 16/1 for next year’s Guineas against an O’Brien filly which has just routed the field in a Group 1? Never going to happen.

    #1665307
    Avatar photoIanDavies
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 12996

    It’s a path well trod and tbh I virtually never bother to even comment any more.

    Continually claiming to have obtained a fantasy ante-post price in the seconds AFTER a horse wins a key “trial” race is….

    1 SAD (and would be even if it were true, which it patently isn’t).

    2 An insult to the intelligence of the reader.

    3 An insult to those who obtain genuine prices and I don’t just mean the OP on this thread (I got 28/1 weeks ago) but those like Bobby who get monster prices often a year in advance.

    It’s really, really, tiresome and brings the forum into disrepute.

    Actually, Mickey Mouse operations like Quinnbet were briefly 16s on Oddschecker after the race, but that could easily be a lousy software glitch and doesn’t mean they laid it to anyone.

    If they did, either they’re a terrible bookmaker or the punter they laid it to loses fortunes with them every year.

    Well done with your 17/2, CAS – that’s a fair price as well as a believable one.

    I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
    https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Davies_
    https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/
    It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"

    #1665310
    Avatar photoGingertipster
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    • Total Posts 33665

    If 16/1 was taken after the Boussac then it won’t be paid out anyway – “palpable error”…

    Unless the company particularly wants to keep a losing punter loyal / sweet.
    But doubt that’ll happen more than once or twice to the same punter.

    Value Is Everything
    #1665311
    Avatar photoNathan Hughes
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    • Total Posts 32402

    I got 16’s on Desert Hero for the St Leger when everyone was going half that price after the Gordon stakes
    I went each way and got paid the place money with betway

    Blackbeard to conquer the World

    #1665312
    Avatar photoCork All Star
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    • Total Posts 9304

    Thanks ID.

    I usually ignore Mike’s silly claims as well – but on this occasion I felt I had to call it out. He really is taking the mick if he seriously thinks an audience of well informed racing enthusiasts believe he got 16/1 and double the market price in the moments after Opera Singer won.

    Unless he can post a screenshot of his “bet”, I simply do not believe he obtained that price. Certainly not to anything like a worthwhile stake.

    I don’t know why he does it because he tips a lot of winners and is clearly a good judge. But my patience wore out yesterday. If he is doing it for a laugh then the joke has worn thin now.

    #1665313
    Avatar photoIanDavies
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 12996

    “If 16/1 was taken after the Boussac then it won’t be paid out anyway – “palpable error”…

    Unless the company particularly wants to keep a losing punter loyal / sweet.”

    100% spot on and written by someone who manifestly understands how the game actually works.

    Anyone who knows the first thing about the betting industry would be embarrassed to try it on with such an obvious lie.

    I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
    https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Davies_
    https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/
    It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"

    #1665318
    Avatar photoCork All Star
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    • Total Posts 9304

    Well done with the 28/1, ID. A great spot weeks ago.

    The way she powered clear yesterday was impressive. I have no doubt she will stay.

    #1665325
    Avatar photoGingertipster
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    • Total Posts 33665

    28/1 was brilliant ID.
    tbh 17/2 is still amazing CAS.

    I suppose there is a chance she’ll win the 1000 and then if Coolmore have another good filly for middle distances and nothing else for the mile… might be kept to a mile. But even so…

    8/1 now still looks excellent value. :good:

    Value Is Everything
    #1665326
    Avatar photoCork All Star
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    • Total Posts 9304

    When Coolmore has a top class filly – Minding, Love – they do seem happy to run them in both the Guineas and Oaks.

    #1665329
    Avatar photoIanDavies
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 12996

    Thank you, gentlemen.

    Rightly or wrongly, I think the Oaks is often the weakest of the first four Classics – single-digit fields aren’t that unusual in it – and if you can find a likely runner with quality ante-post you can often have excellent value.

    I’ve got 16s for the 1,000 Guineas too (though I’ve had several ante-post bets on that, so it’s not as good as it sounds) for the reason CAS states – I think they will be very tempted to go to Newmarket with her first as well.

    I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
    https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Davies_
    https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/
    It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"

    #1665351
    Mike007
    Participant
    • Total Posts 8027

    I see i’m getting stick again for no reason. :o)
    They were the odds and I posted it at the time I got on, dunno what else to say really on the subject.

    It’s funny coz Ian has a bit of history of telling the forum he is on at a big price later on with that price long gone and no-one bats an eyelid. I noticed on one of them posts someone even pressed the report button for inappropriate content lol.

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