The home of intelligent horse racing discussion
The home of intelligent horse racing discussion

Irish 1000 Guineas 2024

Home Forums Big Races – Discussion Irish 1000 Guineas 2024

Viewing 17 posts - 1 through 17 (of 41 total)
  • Author
    Posts
  • #1695077
    darren83
    Participant
    • Total Posts 7777

    FALLEN ANGEL 7/1 Unibet

    No doubt better was expected at Newmarket
    But she won at Curragh before. And too soon to be writing her off.

    Buttons from the AOB yard intrest me the most ran well on both starts she was 10/1

    #1695414
    GM23
    Participant
    • Total Posts 493

    A Lilac Rolla w/o 2 favs at 11/2 for me.

    Showed a lot of guts on her reappearance and has beaten Opera Singer before.

    #1695593
    Avatar photoRefuse To Bend
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2045

    I’d like to see Fallen Angel take this.

    To avoid disappointment have no expectations.

    #1695596
    stilvi
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5228

    This probably revolves around whether Opera Singer can reproduce her 2yo form. So many haven’t. She is weak in the market.

    Missed the double figure prices, but taken Azada each-way. Not the greatest race, but she was visually very impressive on her heavy ground debut.

    Two chances tomorrow for Weld to show he isn’t yesterday’s man.

    #1695597
    Avatar photoChivers1987
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1843

    VESPERTILIO looks to have improved for the mile and can overturn Moyglare form with FALLEN ANGEL. 6/1

    #1695617
    Avatar photoHe Didnt Like Ground
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5874

    Fallen Angel for me to , hopefully we’ll get a e.w price

    #1695621
    Mike007
    Participant
    • Total Posts 7547

    Opera Singer getting ‘will need it’ vibes and I was disappointed with antepost pick Fallen Angel at Newmarket. That leaves Vespertilio with classic form so will side with her. EW 5 places.

    #1695623
    stilvi
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5228

    Azada now on the drift – not enough rain? Hopefully, it will soften during the day.

    #1695634
    Avatar photoKwadan
    Participant
    • Total Posts 35

    I fancy Purple Lily, dropping back in trip shouldn’t be a problem for her. A win her should give Ezeliya’s form a boost for the Oaks

    #1695641
    ham
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3461

    The front 3 in the market really ought to be finishing in the front 3, this is a very poor race outwith them, im a bit dumbfounded that opera singer is out to 4/1 and ill need to be a backer at that price. Needing the run or not the price is completely incorrect, should be half that price

    Was a big fallen angel fan but that run LTO didnt convince me she had trained on atall and couldnt be backing at 7/2

    Vespertillo is the one i cant catch right, wouldnt be rating the french race that highly imo

    The rest surely arent upto winning a guineas

    #1695644
    Avatar photoGingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 32698

    Doubt I’ll be playing in the race.

    Am a great fan of Opera Singer but if I did play it would be backing something against her (unless good money comes late). On “form” 4/1 looks excellent value. However, AOB’s poor strike rate with his 3 year olds first time out this season (particularly in Group races)… And the fact Opera Singer has had an injury since her good form… And the fact there’s been very little money for her from the right sources (if there was she’d shorten with the bookies)… All points to connections believing she’ll need it today. They could be using it more as a prep for Royal Ascot. If I was confident she was fit and well I’d consider backing her as short as 13/8… But as it is I wouldn’t be touching 6/1, let alone 4’s.

    Value Is Everything
    #1695646
    greenasgrass
    Participant
    • Total Posts 7458

    Queen of Thunder 100-1 ew 4pl for me,just for an interest. I like her breeding and the mile should be no bother.

    #1695653
    stilvi
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5228

    Ginger, how do you know what the right sources are? Have you got an inside line to Coolmore?

    #1695658
    ham
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3461

    Coolmore would rather win the irish 1000 guineas with her than at royal ascot… so im unsure about this being a “prep”, win or lose, obviously should she lose thattl be the excuse they use, but shes here to win an irish classic… not for a prep, regardless of the drift, regardless of the “sources”

    Youd have to be happy with river tiber yesterday fto and generally speaking theres more FTO winners coming in for obrien now, not sure id share in the concern near a month after the british guineas (it was definitely apparant then, not sure if its as prevalent now)

    We’ll see

    I find it hard to believe that @13/8 if there was money around youd be a backer but at 6/1 you would touch her e/w to 4 places, the maths not mathing on that one, even by your own metric the percentage chance she finishes in the first 4 at 6/1 has to be far greater than the chance she doesnt and at that price, should she run to form, your gaining an incredibly large edge that she might against a large field generally rated a stone below her

    #1695659
    Avatar photoGingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 32698

    I don’t know them Stilvi, but some bookies do. They can tell from their account records the punters who know when an AOB horse is fit and who doesn’t know. They’ll keep some of these smaller winning punters on their books purely to tip them off when one of the stable is fit and when not… Shortening those who’ve been backed by the right people and lengthening those who aren’t backed by the right people.

    However, there is time yet for that to change.
    eg In a late betting coup.

    Value Is Everything
    #1695664
    FinalFurlong91
    Participant
    • Total Posts 6672

    Opera singer had a setback Ham so is very unlikely to be as fit as River Tiber was for yesterday’s race

    Couldn’t back her myself

    But i don’t really like any of the others at the prices so happy to just watch

    #1695666
    Avatar photoChivers1987
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1843

    They said Unquestionable was not at his fittest after a setback and he ran no better than OK yesterday.

Viewing 17 posts - 1 through 17 (of 41 total)
  • You must be logged in to reply to this topic.