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FALLEN ANGEL 7/1 Unibet
No doubt better was expected at Newmarket
But she won at Curragh before. And too soon to be writing her off.Buttons from the AOB yard intrest me the most ran well on both starts she was 10/1
A Lilac Rolla w/o 2 favs at 11/2 for me.
Showed a lot of guts on her reappearance and has beaten Opera Singer before.
This probably revolves around whether Opera Singer can reproduce her 2yo form. So many haven’t. She is weak in the market.
Missed the double figure prices, but taken Azada each-way. Not the greatest race, but she was visually very impressive on her heavy ground debut.
Two chances tomorrow for Weld to show he isn’t yesterday’s man.
VESPERTILIO looks to have improved for the mile and can overturn Moyglare form with FALLEN ANGEL. 6/1
Opera Singer getting ‘will need it’ vibes and I was disappointed with antepost pick Fallen Angel at Newmarket. That leaves Vespertilio with classic form so will side with her. EW 5 places.
I fancy Purple Lily, dropping back in trip shouldn’t be a problem for her. A win her should give Ezeliya’s form a boost for the Oaks
The front 3 in the market really ought to be finishing in the front 3, this is a very poor race outwith them, im a bit dumbfounded that opera singer is out to 4/1 and ill need to be a backer at that price. Needing the run or not the price is completely incorrect, should be half that price
Was a big fallen angel fan but that run LTO didnt convince me she had trained on atall and couldnt be backing at 7/2
Vespertillo is the one i cant catch right, wouldnt be rating the french race that highly imo
The rest surely arent upto winning a guineas
Doubt I’ll be playing in the race.
Am a great fan of Opera Singer but if I did play it would be backing something against her (unless good money comes late). On “form” 4/1 looks excellent value. However, AOB’s poor strike rate with his 3 year olds first time out this season (particularly in Group races)… And the fact Opera Singer has had an injury since her good form… And the fact there’s been very little money for her from the right sources (if there was she’d shorten with the bookies)… All points to connections believing she’ll need it today. They could be using it more as a prep for Royal Ascot. If I was confident she was fit and well I’d consider backing her as short as 13/8… But as it is I wouldn’t be touching 6/1, let alone 4’s.
Value Is EverythingQueen of Thunder 100-1 ew 4pl for me,just for an interest. I like her breeding and the mile should be no bother.
Ginger, how do you know what the right sources are? Have you got an inside line to Coolmore?
Coolmore would rather win the irish 1000 guineas with her than at royal ascot… so im unsure about this being a “prep”, win or lose, obviously should she lose thattl be the excuse they use, but shes here to win an irish classic… not for a prep, regardless of the drift, regardless of the “sources”
Youd have to be happy with river tiber yesterday fto and generally speaking theres more FTO winners coming in for obrien now, not sure id share in the concern near a month after the british guineas (it was definitely apparant then, not sure if its as prevalent now)
We’ll see
I find it hard to believe that @13/8 if there was money around youd be a backer but at 6/1 you would touch her e/w to 4 places, the maths not mathing on that one, even by your own metric the percentage chance she finishes in the first 4 at 6/1 has to be far greater than the chance she doesnt and at that price, should she run to form, your gaining an incredibly large edge that she might against a large field generally rated a stone below her
I don’t know them Stilvi, but some bookies do. They can tell from their account records the punters who know when an AOB horse is fit and who doesn’t know. They’ll keep some of these smaller winning punters on their books purely to tip them off when one of the stable is fit and when not… Shortening those who’ve been backed by the right people and lengthening those who aren’t backed by the right people.
However, there is time yet for that to change.
eg In a late betting coup.Value Is EverythingOpera singer had a setback Ham so is very unlikely to be as fit as River Tiber was for yesterday’s race
Couldn’t back her myself
But i don’t really like any of the others at the prices so happy to just watch
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