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As i said i was talking to the owner Thursday night (he’s one of the 2 guys that run Supreme Horse Racing) Jim Ballfrey, he said they are very confident on BOE and turned down €750k for him this week.
They should of took the money
That’s what I was thinking.
As i said i was talking to the owner Thursday night (he’s one of the 2 guys that run Supreme Horse Racing) Jim Ballfrey, he said they are very confident on BOE and turned down €750k for him this week.
Katie Walsh was adamant last night that COC couldn’t win this and all the sharp bends would catch him out. Said the horse was beat last year with ages left, managed to hang onto something and eventually flew home, can’t do that in a x country.
Was talking to Jim Ballfrey last night at a preview he is one of the 2 guys over Supreme Racing with Mullins. He seemed fairly genuine and didn’t want to talk too much about horses but more people from Kerry where I’m from, he said he’s on Bunk Off at 25s and he will win Supreme. He then said, that they turned down €750k for the horse yesterday morning.
Was at a preview last night in Laois and got talking to owner of Peregrine Run, they think he is massively well in. The last run was solely to get a mark for this (i was wondering why he was such a big price and kept on drifting) and as it would be an English rating Phil Smith couldn’t hike him, Tony Mullins also mentioned he thought he had a super chance and wished them all the luck.
Brain Power has had 3 runs left handed.
1st start he won a bumper beating now 128 rated Big River by 0.5L in receipt of 7lb, 4L back in 3rd was Double Ws who was giving him 17lb.
He was then thoroughly smashed by the legend that is Barters Hill in an Aintree bumper beaten 26L in receipt of 6lb.
The he ran off a mark off 145 and was beat 20L in the greatwood. discounting the first run he has been beat 46L on his last 2 runs going left handed.
Can anyone tell me how Ballyandy jumped from a rating of 135 before the Betfair Hurdle to 147 after it? He beat Clyne by 6L while in receipt of 8 lbs and Clyne is rated 143. Is his 12 point jump based on more than just the one run?
After the weights came out for the betfair Clybe ran split the new one and lami serge and would have risen to 148. Hence the new rating.
Is it case of Ruby riding Footpad and Jacob on Sceaux Royal and VVM going mares with Limini staying at home?
Foxtail Hill, Romain De Senman, Value At Risk and Itsafreebee make obvious appeal towards the head of the market and don’t really look a whole lot of value a week out. I remember Brian Hughes when interviewed earlier in the season saying how highly regarded Double W’s is and Betfred are a stand-out 25/1 for Potters Legend who brings form into this deserving of being a lot shorter in the market. At 33/1 however, Mercian Prince looks a shrewd each-way bet for a stable working with a 33% strike rate in chases this season. A winner over 2m 5f in France last year, he bolted up on good ground at Southwell back in November before showing a very willing attitude to win off a mark of 128 at Sandown in January. Now the runner-up from that hasn’t been seen since but the 3rd fell when looking the winner at Kempton since and the 4th won at Ludlow last week. Since that victory at Sandown he fell 3 out off his current mark of 135 behind Royal Vacation at Cheltenham when holding every chance and last time out he finished 4th at Leicester but was only beaten 5 lengths after leading approaching the last on what was heavy ground. I think he has a chance and wouldn’t it be nice to see Amy Murphy collect a trophy next week?
Surely doesn’t get in off 135?
Also surprised Value At Risk has not been mentioned giving the Skeltons think he is a graded horse in a handicap, the obviously could not believe his handicap mark of 138 when it was allotted and protected it for this. The fact he ran poorly first time would worry me with him but other than that he seems to go well enough fresh.
Gold Present of Nicky Henderson’s is off 137 after giving Frodon (153) a real race last time in receipt of 1lb. Horse hung badly on the run in and may have been closer only for that. The worry is it’s flat course form but he has run well at Exeter early in his career when beat by Qualando giving it a nice few pounds in the race before he came out and won the Fred Winter. The horse is a really good jumper, did make a bad error in his 2nd last run and at the first in his first run but other than that he’s been superb. Personally think he is chucked in off 137. Yard have won this race a few years back with Radjhani Express. The worry with this fella is it’s all small field form but I think a big field will settle him. Needs 2 to come out so should get in handy. What ye think?
I don’t buy the Politilogue hype, Barters absolutely smashed him at Newbury last year. The horse didn’t run well at the festival last year (20th in Coral Cup) even though Nichols had a pretty good festival. Nichols has had 7 runners in this all unplaced at prices of 6/1, 13/2, 20/1, 5/1, 8/1, 11/2, 20/1. Mullins on the other hand has trained 3 winners from 6 renewals.
He must have about 1 millionth the Hype of Yorkhill though. 8/1 was/is hardly the odds of a hyped horse. At least Politologue can jump and the fact of the matter is that Politologue beat Rock The Kasbah and Royal Vacation back in December, Rock The Kasbah has won since and Royal Vacation has won twice since, including the Kauto Star chase at Kempton on Boxing Day. That, in my opinion, is the pick of the form on offer here. The two horses Politologue beat are far superior to anything Yorkhill has faced so far over fences. It’s all about value for me and 8/1 vs 6/4, as it was at the time, was not hard for me to favour,
Oh totally, but STD has said this is his best chance of a winner and he’s been talked up a bit by Nichols too. So I don’t think the horse is without a bit of hype but clearly not as much as Yorkhill.
Personally, I just don’t really rate him Steve.
I think this race is kind of seen as a tin pot race as it doesn’t have the history of The Arkle or RSA but in recent years it’s been a pretty decent race. Two 6yo have won this Sir Des Champs and Vautour, multiple grade 1 winners going close in a Gold Cup and King George respectively. Three other 6 yos have managed to place Uxizandre, Valsuer Lido and Lami Serge. The first 2 finished 1st and 2nd in a Ryanair respectively and have won multiple grade 1s and Lami Serge clearly has a ball of talent just doesn’t know how to apply it.
As Politilogue is also a 6yo I just do not think he’s at that kind of level personally. Is he your idea of the winner Steve?
I was a bit puzzled that Willie Mullins declared himself “delighted” with Yorkhill yesterday and then turn around and say they would school him again because of some dodgy jumps.
To be honest, I’ve never really been as big a fan of Yorkhill as some people. He looked dodgy at Aintree last year and was beaten at odds-on, when he was disappointing at Punchestown later that month. To my eyes he’s a bit quirky and we didn’t really glean anything positive regarding Cheltenham from two egg and spoon Novice Chase wins.
There was negativity in Yorkhill’s last chase win in my opinion though. I just don’t think he looks to be a good jumper of fences and I see him as an accident waiting to happen at Cheltenham. Maybe I will be wrong but he doesn’t convince me as a good thing at the odds.
I feel Top Notch may be a tad overrated here. I did not want to take the odds ante-post after his latest win and can’t recommend him at half those odds now. The trouble is that his last run was against horses who couldn’t seem to jump to save themselves. The Favourite, Clan Des Obeaux was always struggling that day before coming into it slightly for heavy pressure but that then caught up with him and he was stone last. La Prezien jumped like a slag, rather than a stag, that day and I feel that sentiment about Top Notch being a bit of a pet in the yard and a horse out-jumping his size took over after the race and the entire team seemed to be floating along on a cloud that was sitting some height above planet reality.
I though Waiting Patiently was the value at 16/1-20/1 and could not see why Politologue was half the odds, as he seemed to be beaten fair and square when the two met. Waiting Patiently has picked up a small injury and misses the race, something I had a funny feeling about and I had an insurance on Politologue at 8/1, to follow the form line into this race.
I feel Politologue is one of Nicholls’ better chances this week and would take a match bet at 6/5 with Top Notch.
Yorkhill has been speculated over for several races at Cheltenham but I think the trainer realises this is his only real chance. His Hurdle rating isn’t as high as his reputation is and I am still trying to stop laughing about a guy on another forum who suggested Yorkhill was a good bet for the Arkle, musing that he is only rated as far behind Altior as he is over fences because “He only ever just does enough to win” I smell BS there.
I’ll leave Yorkhill to the faithful. Duffman has a bad feeling about him though.
I don’t buy the Politilogue hype, Barters absolutely smashed him at Newbury last year. The horse didn’t run well at the festival last year (20th in Coral Cup) even though Nichols had a pretty good festival. Nichols has had 7 runners in this all unplaced at prices of 6/1, 13/2, 20/1, 5/1, 8/1, 11/2, 20/1. Mullins on the other hand has trained 3 winners from 6 renewals.
Last ten winners all won at least 2 hurdle races.
Negative for the following: Melon, Bunk Off Early, Ballyandy, Consul De Thaix.
Neon Wolf seems to have been hammered for this the last few days.
If Moon Racer does go for The Champion which I think is insane Neon Wolf will probably carry my money in this.
Has anyone seen any reports to suggest Neon Wolf will be running here?
Betfair would suggest Neptune is the target but he is a sea of blue on Oddschecker more than likely due to firms going NRNB. If Moon Racer doesn’t go here and NW stays in the Neptune, I don’t know what to back.
Last ten winners all won at least 2 hurdle races.
Negative for the following: Melon, Bunk Off Early, Ballyandy, Consul De Thaix.
Neon Wolf seems to have been hammered for this the last few days.
If Moon Racer does go for The Champion which I think is insane Neon Wolf will probably carry my money in this.
