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Expect To Win

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  • in reply to: Gamble Landed #311001
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    Very funny Laughing out loud.

    With the amount of negative publicity in the last few years both in the press and on national television, perpetuated on an almost race by race basis here, its almost impossible to consider the British public "unsuspecting" as far as racing is concerned.

    in reply to: form reading methods. #310677
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    First check the class of the race, have a quick look at the competitors at the head of the market and see which are in form and on the boil, check the class of the races.
    Next check if any of them are having any previous(last 2-3 runs) good form hidden.
    A quick look over the short list to see how many contenders we are looking at and then finally if any have the ability to beat the others.

    in reply to: Gamble Landed #307653
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    Conclusions so far

    Racing post are shite at compiling a tissue.

    Bookies are thieves and shorten everything up at the front of the market regardless.

    Punters, in general, dont like missing winners or losers and take every opportunity to claim they have been robbed by cheats.

    in reply to: Mutual Respect and Special Envoy #307651
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    I backed special envoy at Haydock a ton ew at 33/1 I was counting my money approaching the last unstoppable i thought and was reckoning the return. I think Paddy Brennan was up that day and I dont know who was the most gutted me or him he could hardly get up after that god awful slither. It will always have a place in my heart for the wrong reasons, twould have been a great pickup for me that.

    I still wonder what happened to Mutual Respect? I thought he finished the race.

    in reply to: Yet another shocker from Fallon #307540
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    Attention seeking post :roll:

    If it was, it got yours didn’t it.

    Ignore it next time then.

    No, or it ends up like betfair forum. you want to give up trying to predict the outcome of horses races and get a job.

    in reply to: Yet another shocker from Fallon #307526
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    Attention seeking post :roll:

    in reply to: Gamble Landed #307523
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    Prescott drifter

    Wanted
    1 hangman
    1 set gallows
    1 ermin robe
    1 powder wig
    1 know all

    in reply to: Gamble Landed #307389
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    I think You would enjoy your racing more in Dubai Glenn where there is not a market.

    There are also no misjudged rides no mistimed efforts all horses are run over the right trip and horses don’t develop niggles. EVERYONE WINS OVER THERE.

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    Hopefully this will be a very narrow discussion. Far far to much whinging and crying on here lately.

    This is a bleeding racing forum. Not kindergarten.

    in reply to: TRF Lounge Quiz #306737
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    A calendar

    in reply to: TRF Lounge Quiz #306732
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    calculating the correct time for prayer.

    in reply to: Harry Findlay result #306637
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    He was warned about his conduct yet failed to heed the warning and put up two fingers to the authorities treating them with contempt. The fact that the lilly livered have now backed down must be incomprehensible to many both inside and outside racing. Including Me.

    in reply to: Gamble Landed #306633
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    If that race was currently the full extent of corruption within racing then in my view racing is in pretty good shape.

    No matter what’s gone down, there is

    always

    one isn’t there? You are Paul Roy and I claim my five pounds. :lol:

    How did you price up Stefanki in it’s Wolver maiden, given that you had its debut down as solid? I had it down at a shade under 4/1 though decided against betting in the race. It was being offered at 30+ on the machine.

    Why do you consider an opinion that is different from your own worthy of ridicule?

    The fact that you had bothered to price up a low class Wolverhampton maiden in the middle of summer speaks volumes to me. Perhaps it your job to do it? Who knows.

    I have looked over the race and it would not get a price against it as I dont give anything in a race I look at a price. Yeh Yeh Yeh, value value. Put myself up for another dose there.

    What I will say is that it would be discounted immediately at first glance as not having the capacity to win that race. It looks by the prices you quote that the real race analysts, those who put the money down, had taken a view similar to mine, that it could not win under any circumstance. I know that this must be very irksome for you but not everyone looks at a race in the same way as yourself. If I was so far out in my analysis, as you claim to be on a horses chance, I would be looking to myself to get my act together, not be blaming all and sundry when I have so obviously got it wrong.

    Regards your first point I am not Roy and I am experienced enough to know what goes on in racing, but lightly raced horses still looking for a trip? Come on, not a fair target at all this race or horse.

    in reply to: TRF Lounge Quiz #306538
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    determining you orientation and finding E>W

    in reply to: Gamble Landed #306535
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    If there was one horse to sum this thread up today would Stefanki fit the bill? Any price you like on his 3rd run in a rank average Wolverhampton maiden.

    Formerly trained by a flag of convenience for a warned off individual, running today in the colours of a flag of convenience of a warned off individual, ridden by a proven corrupt jockey whose rides got the horse handicapped and trained by a guy being investigated for running a flapper.

    Pretty much sums up the current free for all.

    There is a lot of negativity about on this thread, of course the picture painted above at first glance looks irreconcilable with an easily predicted outcome. What the mind does not readily aquire from the text Glen supplied is that in all cases above the people concerned where caught in the act and action taken against them, appropriate or not depending on individual taste, its easy for the mind to gloss over those facts when it is presented as an apparent "fait accompli".

    If both the race and the horse itself is put under the spotlight then it has to be said that the first five or six at the head of the market are mainly an odd bunch which are either out of form or running over an unsuitable distance.

    Stefanki had shown on his first outing in a decent 6furlong race that he was capable of mixing it up at the finish. Noted being a little one paced at the business end it is entirely plausible from the run to conclude that the horse would be suited by the extra furlong. It so happens that on both attempts when held up at the rear the horse could not produce a sustained effort. When reverted back to the previous distance of 6f where he had shown his best performance figures AND at far lower class, where is the surprise that it ran a bit better and got his nose in front.

    If that race was currently the full extent of corruption within racing then in my view racing is in pretty good shape.

    I don’t know what some people want from a horse, a written guarantee that it will perform to its best at every trip on every surface and every track type?

    in reply to: Gamble Landed #306280
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    A week of rain and you wont be able find a winning favourite with a magnifying glass.
    Several of the horses in each race are running on ground that’s unsuitable for their mechanical predisposition. The consistently dry weather has enabled the form of the runners of the race to be narrowed considerably.

    Its easy to see why some individuals will be disgruntled at perceived inside knowledge, in many races I suspect that its thanks to the efforts of those in charge to eradicate the shinanigans within the game thus more races are straighter than ever, run true to form and are therefore easier to predict for some.

    We, as punters, should be dancing in the streets.

    in reply to: innocent question #305908
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    I cant see any adverts, occasionally some are mentioned in thread titles etc.

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