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I tried to write a a polite post here etc but sod it.<br>I’m glad the hoss did not win today because <br>a)A far better horse beat it (as did a few more)<br>b) I would not be able to stand the hype if he had (but god knows the PM is just as bad).<br>c) He ain’t a brilliant hoss<br>d) I layed as any sensible punter would as, it price was to short for its form, and there was far better "backing potential" horeses in the race.<br>(dons tin helmet and starts digging trenches for long tirade).
redman<br>I was replying to your post as you put forward a valid(ish) argument as you have deegrated to dergogatry terms, then I can only give you the following advice. The elbow is the one on the upper limb, the ar*e seems to the one from whence you speak. :biggrin:
Redman<br>2. no need for three "bookies" if I lay I pay. if i back I collect. The bet/lay might be solit between 400 people in smaller wagers but there is no need for three people in your example to lay the bet!<br>4 betfair does display all the bets struck at the prices, the total backed and layed on a paticular participent in an event and the total market on an event click on the "i" in front of the particpent<br>5. the total overround is displayed at the top for laying and backing,
Which I think is more open than the bookies, ever walked up to the counter and asked whats the state of play in this event?
Morgans,<br>I very much doubt CC would beat HW on Saturdays performance on good ground, simply because I believe that HW would have done even better. But the flip side remains the other way.<br>And I must admit to a certain enjoyment of playing the devils advocate. Which has brought out some excellent arguments, to the pros and cons of the performance of HW.<br>I am glad you made profit on the race, I did as well but from a different perspective, because on past form he has not always delivered the goods, in fact I dismissed him not caring wether he won or not, and so was able to enjoy the race, without the hindereance of wanting him to win.<br>There are some possible holes, in the performance, that he may or may prove or disprove, and I look forward eagerly to watching the results.<br>There is no smugness on my part, nor do I knock the performance on saturday.<br>One of my favourite horses was Halling, who everybody knocked all the way, and the joy when Bosra sham beat  him by all sundry was indeed a bitter pill for me. No excuses though he was beaten by a better horse on the day.<br>This horse Hawk Wing has been a conundrum to many, even his supporters, I hope he does become the greatest ever, because I will have seen it and it will buy me a drink in the approaching dotage.<br>I like the opinions, the heated debates, thats how we decide on these greats.<br>Incidently, no hanicap ratings here, I am a speed freak through and through.<br>Hawk Wing will always have his detractors, but of one thing we can be sure the performance on Saturday, we will see again.
(Edited by Dungheap at 4:03 pm on May 20, 2003)
So his form is in and out? <br>The sign of a great horse?<br>Will WOW win next time?<br>Will there be excuses for HW?<br>Was there this discussion before the race that Hawk Wing would trounce them all, where were the voices then, where were all the max bets, that this was the best horse you had all seen?<br>The acclaim for the performance yes yes yes, that he is the best or the best ever NOT YET he still has that to prove!!!
An interesting fact is Kinane had ridden them all except Domedriver prior to the race, and this may have influenced the decision to go on.
Prince regent Morgans. <br>
I must admit I saw an amazing feat by a racehorse in the Juddemonte as the times below show.
1998 Juddmonte Cape Cross time 1m 35.17s fast by 3.17s <br>2003 juddmonte Hawk Wing time 1m 36.78s fast by 1.72s
I must belatedly put Cape crosses performance down as the best, since a bit was put in a horses mouth. There again he was not a HYPE horse, but a second string who ran his best one day.
So what was cape crosses final OR when he ran the same distance a second faster ie he would have come IN front of Hawk Wing. <br>Yet is dismissed by you all with excuses for all the other runners. (remember as I said my arguments are from a TIME perspective). Hawk wings time was fast, but not as fast as CC in the same race, distance and course, the only difference being Good and Good/Firm.<br>Remove hawk wing from the race, what would have the times been then?An awfully slow, poor renewal? <br>On WOW’s past form he should have been nearer to HW, why wasn’t he, did HW Burn him off, quite probably and therefore it was an excellent performance. But looking at HW’s record I am holding my fire, until he does it again. He will then gain my respect as a great horse.<br>As for hype, it used to be any of Cecils horses, that were going to win, with excuses when they did not, Godolphin had a period at the hype no.1, now it it is O’Brian. <br>Hawk Wing has been beaten, quite a few times now, this one superlative performance does not make him great.<br>
Morgans <br>You missed the point totally!!<br>Hawk Wing had no race, on saturday. The rest of the field did not run up to their best, therefore HAWK WING WAS FLATTERED. His time on the day was good, although the race before returned a fast time as well.<br>My remarks are not aimed at the horse, but the HYPE surrounding him. <br>This race has only added to it IMO, where it is NOT justified.<br>
Prince regent<br> 1 Cape Cross made virtually all, clear 3f out, ridden over 2f out, ran on well<br>1 Hawk Wing made all, driven clear approaching final 2f, carried head high, edged right inside final furlong, unchallenged.<br>The race write ups, no negatives in cape crosses<br>Sounds like Cape cross had a bit of a race, as his contemperies were closer, IMO the horses behind Hawk wing did not run to their form, if they had have and Hawk Wing had have been even better, then I would also be crowing his name from the roof tops, but they di d not neither did he. <br> I personally Titanic’ed Domedriver and layed him substancially on Betfair. I did not see the wonder horse maxed by his supporters. hype hype hype.
I must admit I saw an amazing feat by a racehorse in the Juddemonte as the times below show.
1998 Juddmonte Cape Cross time 1m 35.17s fast by 3.17s<br>2003 juddmonte Hawk Wing time 1m 36.78s fast by 1.72s
I must belatedly put Cape crosses performance down as the best, since a bit was put in a horses mouth. There again he was not a HYPE horse, but a second string who ran his best one day.
Mesh,<br>I know also of the problems getting a racing post, in Cornwalls forgotten corners, especially on a Sunday.<br>I think most of the headlines are the same as the online ones.<br>Dung<br>P.S. Like the new Avatar is that "the loch sibleyback monster"?
In the cold light of the next day.<br>The horse is back to hype level again, The time was not as fast as cape cross I think, who was 3.63 sec fast G/F(I use RP times to standardise my calcs). <br>Yes a good performance but I suspect, not as good as the hype, domedrivers 6 wins have come on soft or yeilding ground except one. To beat the second by 11 lengths ok, good, but with the third another how many behind, I suspect that the opposition on the day was not that good. <br>If my memory serves me rightly, most horses that win this race, do not go on to greater things. but it is their stud fee guarantee.<br>I have a large plate of humble pie ready for his next run, but I do not think I will be eating it.<br>
Cormack<br>Because the price taken at the time could be on a book with an overround of 50% plus.
On reflection though, the three price structures could co-exist providing they can hedge into each other. But as each market is different there are more oppurtunities for abuse, so monitoring and checks would be required.
To reiterate my concerns, many of the betting shop punters bet each way, and in multiples (a different mode of bettors, from most people on here IMO, as many of these punters, have reading and writing problems, the comparibale future punters will not be able to use computers, the present SP system, gives these people protection. <br>An industry standard price will exist in the future IMO and will be based around exchanges, because a) the big three will be in the exchange market within 12 months b)On course will be similar to betting shops as all the money will be on the exchanges c)The prices on the exchanges will normalise, with the occaisional blip.
I think the advent of being to back or lay a horse is excellent, but it only actually reinforces, what happened before that punters were betting against each other and the bookie made profit from the over-round (purist theory). Now we can bet direct with each other, my opinion against yours, there is absolutly no reason why, the stanardised SP cannot exist, ie an average of all the prices.<br>For those each way stealers mentioned before, just imagine a mouth watering 250/1 in the bookies shop, dive dive dive.<br> <br>
Ian,<br>I agree with you totally caveat emourer (if I have spelt it right), all the prices can be there and are there now.<br>But we all know of the betting scams that happen, if the SP is fragmentised then, another genie will be out. I <br>think that we are lucky in that we do not have a pari-mutual kind of straight jacket, nor do I wish for one.<br>But as cubone rightly pointed out it has worked, for the good over a number of years, lets see if the baby is worth throwing out first. (LOL). <br>A In a similar vein, all the privatised businesses have an OFsomthing, a standardised SP is racings OFsomthing.
Cubone<br>How many shop punters bet on the tote, only the enlightened. The price structure is formed by the punters at the moment, that’s why horses etc shorten or lengthen. <br>Hiralbrokes will allways try to manipulate their bettors to spend spend spend, but the industry as a whole needs an SP because not everybody is capable of a)the maths b)the concept and c) the technology to form their own enlightened book.
Hi Cubone<br>The SP price must be at the final point of where the money goes.<br>Bettor>bookie>rails the old/present method<br>Bettor>bookie>rails>exchange<bettor the new order.<br>If there is no final all encompassing SP, then the market in part or whole can be distorted or manipulated.<br>The excahnges must now be part of, or become, within the SP compilers equation.<br>The very idea of having differing SP is dangerous, an example is american prices, against british prices on a particular race, with the advent of exchanges and the internet I can place my bet and LAY wherever I want.<br>But what if there was a good price at say Hiralbrokes, they might always give me the RSP the IP or EP, which ever was lowest.<br>The protection of the betting shop punters, is one of the most important parts of the whole racing industry. They are the future US, and are do not have the protection when there is multiple prices.<br>Ian <br>Our posts crossed, you did understand me right.
(Edited by Dungheap at 1:02 pm on May 15, 2003)
Wit,<br>There is one major difference between, a monopoly game and "industry SP", Argos et al know their own purchase price of the product, the "big three" have to second guess this price and then change as the market does.<br>There are those consumers that will not for whatever reason, look up the price of the game, and buy it at the first sighting.<br>Many of the betting shop punters are, not computer literate (and will never be) and many do not even own a computer, so to them an industry SP is preferably as it is their only protection.<br>Many of us can sit here and scoff at the lack of knowledge, that these punters have and deride them. But I would certainly put forward the proposition, that nearly all the punters on this forum have done it, before they found that magic thing value. The only difference being our education and social backgrounds.<br>There must be an industry SP, or quite simply there will be no new entrants to the bettors market, because if people get ripped off, initially they will not be back.<br>Until the latest generation of, entrants to the betting market complete their induction to the market, and become the old sages to pass on their knowledge to new punters, about internet betting possibilities. Then the status quo will remain, until the point at which the big three force change.<br>Arguably the OFT can not do much about prices, as they are arguably, dynamic not passive, and reflect the current market position.<br>The most overlooked fact, though is that the market is about "personal opinion" an intangible product , that the price reflects, and as such, whovever accepts a bet will want their profit margin overall.<br>With the advent of betting exchanges and now the rails being allowed to lay off onto exchanges, indirectly the big three can enter the exchanges, means you can effectivly lay the big three!!!<br>The Industry SP will stay, if only for historical records, where it is formed and who does it, is irrelevant as long as it is a "free market", which before the advent of exchanges it certainly was not.<br>Should we be concerned? I thought we always were.
Hi Colin,<br>Hope the Hi dung was a salutation and not descriptive:biggrin: <br>I’ve no real problem when in comes to trainers and jockeys, doing their stuff and getting involved, even their offspring are more knowledgable than fag-ash(borrow us a fiver) dave in the bookies. <br>But it is more the same faces, especially as C4 and ATR are combined, add cross fertilization with the RP and we have all the investigitive journalism ( thinking about it is there any?) from the same sources.<br> When outsiders start, (panorama and that punch bag guy), headless chicken mode ensues and IMO, all our journalists seem to be pro, stopping them.<br>Ian ,<br>I like your approach, the best man for the job is correct, method for a business to follow.<br>Strangly feeling less paranoid now, the ham sandwich sends it love<br>Mike
