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Winalot,<br>Looks like ballydoyle agree, by the racing post this morning, Fallon to replace Kinane.<br>Maybe you are the peceptive one amongst us.
(Edited by Dungheap at 11:23 am on June 27, 2003)
It would be possible to build a mathmatical model, for a horse race, and all the variables could be accounted for-however I do not think I would like a) to do it and b) to trust it.<br>I read somewhere one " the day should start with no gambling opportunities, and you should only gamble when one arises." Which is an addage I use. To me it does not matter what the edge is value, speed or whatever, if I have the opportunity then, I enter the market.<br> The exchanges have made this easier, IMO because, before I found for instance a fav, who I thought would be beaten, then the research had to be done to find horse (if any) that could beat it, now I just lay it.
Swingopair<br>sorry rattle was still on floor.<br>JIM JTS<br>Took me ten minutes longer to read the posts, as I’ve been away from the computer for two days, cos of your interjections. Keep it up.<br>DL<br>Well said, in words that I could not find at the time.<br>PR<br>Excellent point, but only the hype will be remembered.<br>ID<br>i think you possible have the same political view as you describe HW, does that bode well for backand lacklustre.com?<br>:biggrin: Copyright ID 2003<br>Galileo<br>Good horse won 6/8 on all goings coming 2nd once. IMO worth the hype. Unlike HW. <br>But still do not like HYPE.
If anyone does have the Last word on this thread, then<br>HYPE HYPE HOO-Bloody-RAY. :clap:<br>
(Edited by Dungheap at 4:22 pm on June 25, 2003)
Aiden,<br>You feel saddened about the thread, so do I, I feel saddened that we can’t question things without being shouted down all the time. Even when we have a valid point.<br> You said
Load of crap Dungheap.
<br>When you mis-understood my thread. I was not critising, ballydoyle’s open day, but the manipulation of the press and you (where they have suceeded).
If you and swingofapair do not recognise satire, then que sera. At least that manchester city supporting JohnJDonahue, could reply in kind, not in vulgarity.
spoken with true wit sir, may I suggest after the puppet….the puppeteers.<br>
(Edited by Dungheap at 1:30 am on June 21, 2003)
PR stands for Public Relations.<br>How many horses outside of the Magnier/Tabor ownership or part ownership does O’Brian Train?<br>How many yards have the beginning of season, press day like Ballydoyle, and why do they do it. <br>The horeses are nearly all well, bred or bought in at expensive prices.
The business end is to, promote the horses, they have suceeded as this very thread, proves, HW is being compared with horses who are termed to be "great". Wether he wins another race or is retired, makes little difference he will be remebered when, owners are looking to cover a mare.
Earlier in the thread I used Cape Cross as an, anology, not as I said that Cape Cross is any better, but on the day other horses, were much nearer in a comparble time. The form of this years Lockinge IS questionable as is the form in any race by anybody, this has not been helped by HW turning lame at Ascot. But does not detract from the actual result.
Ballydoyle has up until this season, retired horses, earlier than later. HW only stayed in training, to improve his reputation, with the run the other day injury or not, he has again muddied the waters. My feeling is that, ballydoyle masters felt also felt that the form of the lockinge was suspect, hence the desire for a definitive win. Against equals who run their true race on the day.
Ballydoyle are pretty effective at feeding the Hype machine, other trainers, play their cards close to their chest and will only give a sentence in reply about a horse, usually gaurded, with caveats. <br>The racing media unused to IMO this kind of information from a big yard can only use it, the problem being then, that the Journalists, are still in arse sucking subjective mode, not objective mode, as a true Journalist should be. (if O’Brian says it’s good it must be).<br>If ever there was an over hyped horse, then at the moment HW fits the bill.<br>It’s not that some of us dislike Hyped up horses, its that quietly we feel that other, horses, issues and people are not having the coverage they should have. <br>Morgans et al, I respect your steadfast view of HW, but to me a "great" or "greatest" of horses will have won, over 80% of it’s races, put in two or three scintillating performances on the way. IMO HW has not done this, nor will do.
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(Edited by Dungheap at 2:16 pm on June 20, 2003)
JohnJ<br>I said I did not like the Ballydoyle PR machine, not ballydoyle.<br>It is they who cause the hype and feed it. PR means PUBLIC RELATIONS. I would still dislike it if it were in timbuktoo. <br>Because it just hypes horses, so that they will stay in the minds of people wanting a sire for their mare. It is a financial operation cut and dried, the Sires are more important than the present runners. The training operation is a feeder for the stud. If HW had have done the business last year, do you think he would have run in the lockinge I doubt it he would now be a stud stallion.
Morgans harbour you said<br>
i think 4/6 is fantastic value for the Queen Anne. Just need to know if he runs in it or not. I cant believe some are saying that it was hype. The horse proved teh hype yesterday. Moon Ballad wouldnt see which way he went. I have some doubts about the form, but he belongs a class or two above WOW. He is only a handicapper when compared to the HW we saw on saturday. Something similar to that national stakes HW, and the 2000g HW.
<br>Did you take the price then Morgans? :biggrin:
Morgan it was me who did the cape cross comparison, and I stand by it, both horses over, the same distance course etc. If one is faster than the other, then logically there is a comparison. Simply because, the rest of the field were in, differing positions, does not mean that the performance by HW was any better. <br>
ANALYSIS: Maybe a surprise result, but no arguing with it. The race was run at a true pace and CAPE CROSS made just about all the running to hold on bravely as Poteen came at him in the final furlong. Nor could there be any question of the others being caught napping as they were just about all hard at work 2f out and could not get to the winner. He had some smart form last year, as when he beat Among Men at Goodwood, but even so ran out of his skin here and set a track record into the bargain.Poteen came from some way off the pace and finished with real zest. He could not quite nail the winner but this was a most encouraging reappearance and there is a prize waiting for him.Centre Stalls also came late but not in time to trouble the first two. This was another good effort and augurs well for the rest of the year.Kahal was the only one who appeared to be going well enough to trouble the winner 2f out, but he was being pushed along and not getting there before the final furlong and gave every indication that the trip was beyond his best.Almushtarak came from off the pace to join the pursuers going to the last 2f, but further progress was beyond him, and Among Men, who was held up last weekend due to anabcess on a heel, faded away well before the final furlong after chasing the leaders until then. Obviously disappointing, if excusable in the circumstances.Air Express is capable of some notable displays on his day, but this was very much notone of them. He was being vigorously ridden with more than 2f to go and nothing happened.
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1 Cape Cross<br>made virtually all, clear 3f out, ridden over 2f out, ran on well
The analysis and in running for CC. he led from start to finish Just like HW in a faster time. <br>The difference? Cape cross was in there, as a pacemaker and won and was not a hype, HW was in there as a hype horse.<br>In any other sport, it is the longest, heaviest or fastest, our sport relies on pounds and how far away the runner up was and who it is and what it has done. At the end of the day IMO a horse has 100% to give throughout a race, and wether it is held for a final burst of speed or utilised, through out the race, they only have 100% to give. most races we get 80-90%, because of running problems jockey went too early, or late, the really exceptional races are when the maximum is used.<br>As I have said before, I use speed as a yardstick not what the other horses did etc.<br>CC’s time was faster than HW’s IMO a better performance<br>HW did not produce it yesterday, and I doubt he will again, simply because he will allways be taken on. <br>The supporters of HW all have their reasons for supporting the animal, the detractors are not out to get the horse nor it’s supporters, but one performance may be brilliant if it is the best ever, but HW’s was not IMO and he has not, shown that he belongs in MY top ten.<br>I do not go against hype if I think the horse is not a good one, but I do think that HW is an over hyped horse as others have agreed with me on this forum. <br>And when you talk about differing goings, I can quote you rainfall weather conditions, and windspeeds for the relevent CC HW lockinge days and weeks preceding and the there was not much difference in the going. The race prior to HW’s was fast as well.
Morgans.<br>I just felt at the time when I pointed out IMO, possibly the lockinge was very flatterering to HW. And that IMO only WOW actually was on a par with HW in the race, form going etc wise, that no matter what I said it was wrong. The point of a board is to discuss, things like this. But I was expressing my opinion.<br>I have said elsewhere on this board, that I did not think HW would win his next outing, and I have been proven right by susbsequent results. <br>He has obviously some faults be they "head" or "soundness". He has won from recollection nearly half of his races, 5/12 actually and was 2nd 5 times. The consisentcy is there, yet there is always one who has had him.<br>The tone of his supporters, was that this was a great horse, who no one should decry for any reason, nor should any one question the form of the lockinge. Which as you say took a knock yesterday.<br>Both supporters and detractors are somewhat puzzled, by this horse. I agree, how anyone could back HW at less than evens yesterday, I do not know. The race yesterday was quite fast, he had his favoured ground, the jockey and the fast pace that ballydoyle said was needed. <br>I just think, that there hve been better horses with proven form ie winning, who have not been given the merits they deserve, because of the hype surrounding HW. Rock of gibralter certainly springs to mind. <br>
Ta Nick,<br>I meant consistant not brilliant, he has shown glimses of brilliance, but IMO not in the same leaugue as "brilliant "horses like singspiel, rock of gibralter who you always felt could win their race, before during and after, not like Hawk Wing, whats the recipe today Jim.
Comments in running from today’s racing post.<br>
<br>However, it’s hard to know what to make of Hawk Wing, who was so sensationally impressive when allowedto dominate in the Lockinge but ran no race at all here, to the sartisfaction no doubt of those who were far from convinced he would repeat the performance. There was no attempt to dominate this time, but after being settled in behind the predicted fast pace and then angled out for his run in plenty of time he found nothing and trailed in a bitterly disappointng seventh, beaten by around the same distance as he had won by at Newbury. Something was clearly amiss again and within minutes of the race there was first a suggestion that he had coughed on pulling up, and then an official announcement to the effect that on veterinary examination he was found to be lame. But one has to wonder now not only if we will ever see the Lockinge Hawk Wing again, but alsowhether that form should still be accepted at face value.
The hype surrounding this horse has been phenominal, and I see those that post lockinge, were shouting down anyone who question the horse, or suggested that the lockinge form in their opinion, was suspect are remaining relativly quiet at the moment. More in puzzlement, I suspect, than dejection at the horses performance.<br>The best performers, from Ballydoyle IMO are not galileo, HW ROG etc, but the PR machine, that hypes horses, for future stud fees, the press latch on and each one becomes a superstar, very often before they have run. It is a sad reflection of modern society, if only the BRB could do the same.
