May 15, 2003 at 21:03 #102989cormack15Keymaster
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Cubone – don’t understand the "return an outsider. and the Exchange. that is being offered" part of your post. Do you mean ‘an outsider on the exchange that is… etc’?<br>If so then why is that relevant to the price anyone would return it at?<br>May 15, 2003 at 21:04 #102990Nick HattonMember
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Ian if you think thats bad just ask Uncle Cubone about E/W trebles ……..May 15, 2003 at 21:15 #102991
what I was saying my friend Cormack.
Some of the prices on betfair would be a very dangerious system if the best price offered was only to a minute amount.<br>ie 450/1 to Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â£2.
In a Betting Ring the small Bookmakers prices are ignored and only the larger rails and board Bookmakers prices are used.<br>As I see it if the large offcourse industry did create Industy prices it would not be long before the small indipandant offcourse Bookmakers ofered there clients the racecourse Starting Prices that would give the smaller Bookmakers an advantage.over the big three.
You must understand that the majority of horserace gamblers still bet in the traditional way ie Betting Shops
Although I see that exchanges are attempting to move into this market also with there telephone services.
Nothing wrong with free competition.
Cubone.May 15, 2003 at 21:32 #102992cormack15Keymaster
- Total Posts 8818
See what you’re saying now Cubone – Think you may have misinterpreted my post. What I was suggesting was NOT that betfair prices be used to return an sp (or equivalent) but that SP is done away with altogether. How about when someone goes into a betting shop and places a bet they take the price on offer at that time.<br>In this way the customer always knows what he’s getting, bookie knows what he’s giving and the out-dated sp system is done away with at a stroke.May 15, 2003 at 21:42 #102993
Cormack … if you are an eachway punter then some races there will be a different place structure to others this will be based on the price being offered the favourite.<br>So in fact it will be the end of eachway betting.for a large anmount of UK punters.<br>The draw will also, have a massive inflence on the prices, being offered the end of the day the prices being offered will not be better than the ones being offered at present.
Q What price would the 7th winner of Detori,s been.
Cubone.May 16, 2003 at 08:03 #102994
Cormack<br>Because the price taken at the time could be on a book with an overround of 50% plus.
On reflection though, the three price structures could co-exist providing they can hedge into each other. But as each market is different there are more oppurtunities for abuse, so monitoring and checks would be required.
To reiterate my concerns, many of the betting shop punters bet each way, and in multiples (a different mode of bettors, from most people on here IMO, as many of these punters, have reading and writing problems, the comparibale future punters will not be able to use computers, the present SP system, gives these people protection. <br>An industry standard price will exist in the future IMO and will be based around exchanges, because a) the big three will be in the exchange market within 12 months b)On course will be similar to betting shops as all the money will be on the exchanges c)The prices on the exchanges will normalise, with the occaisional blip.
I think the advent of being to back or lay a horse is excellent, but it only actually reinforces, what happened before that punters were betting against each other and the bookie made profit from the over-round (purist theory). Now we can bet direct with each other, my opinion against yours, there is absolutly no reason why, the stanardised SP cannot exist, ie an average of all the prices.<br>For those each way stealers mentioned before, just imagine a mouth watering 250/1 in the bookies shop, dive dive dive.<br> <br>May 16, 2003 at 11:00 #102995
I fully agree my coloured friend.
Cubone.;) <br>May 16, 2003 at 13:37 #102996
hope you are as good…May 16, 2003 at 15:00 #102997roryParticipant
- Total Posts 2685
My own personal view is that industry SPs are a bad idea and hopefully won’t happen.
Racing margin is going down, but as with other products (of which the Fixed Odds Betting terminals are an excellent example) this doesn’t necessarily mean the bookies overall profits go down. If punters get slightly better returns, it usually means they will just punt more on the next race.
With the advent of the exchanges, the racecourse market is better informed than ever . I say let racing become a high turnover – low margin sport for the off course industry, let the exchanges stay, let punters get better returns and have more in their pocket to play with. And stop all the boring moaning and whinging….
I couldn’t agree more James ~ how do we get our bosses to understand?<br>May 19, 2003 at 08:36 #102998roryParticipant
- Total Posts 2685
I think you miss the point of James’ post altogether. This isn’t about big Bookmakers bemoaning the fact that Exchanges are operating on "their patch" ~ it’s an analysis that, far from weakening the off course market and undermining the turnover of the traditional betting shop, the advent of the Betting Exchange is injecting life into that very market and making horse race betting more attractive than ever, and not just for the internet generation.May 22, 2003 at 07:38 #102999
There will never be an industy SP – industry SPs maybe but not one colluded SP – on this Wit was right on the money.
It would be extremely beneficial if some rules of SP assessment were adopted by the betting exchanges
1. you must be able to have a "reasonable wager" so be able to stake at least say 100 quid
2. technically if a betting exchange is like a "virtual betting ring" – there must be three "bookies" prepared to lay bets at the price (so that’s now at least 300 quid – but three opinions).
3. on top of this it must be the "real" price – that is commission (at the highest rate) needs to be deducted before the displayed.
4. if betting exchanges were being fair (as a market) they would display both total stakes, total liability and therefore the "weighted price" of all bets struck (and it should be adjusted for the commission payable(effectively the fully weighted opinion for and against a runner) – this by the way is what a tote does (weighted price after takeout).
5. the total indicative overround should be taken from the sum of 4. above
6. market misleading bids/offers should be banned from display – in fact ideally only bids/offers over the 100 quid should be allowed – all others should be price takers (nibbling off bits of the 100+ market maker’s prices)
BUT you know what, exchanges would resist that degree of openess fiercely – why? – because it would show up how poor a value they really are (and just what margins the "pros" are building in).
(Edited by redman at 5:42 pm on May 22, 2003)May 22, 2003 at 08:01 #103000
Redman<br>2. no need for three "bookies" if I lay I pay. if i back I collect. The bet/lay might be solit between 400 people in smaller wagers but there is no need for three people in your example to lay the bet!<br>4 betfair does display all the bets struck at the prices, the total backed and layed on a paticular participent in an event and the total market on an event click on the "i" in front of the particpent<br>5. the total overround is displayed at the top for laying and backing,
Which I think is more open than the bookies, ever walked up to the counter and asked whats the state of play in this event?May 22, 2003 at 13:05 #103001
re 2. – my point is that for an SP to be returned (or the shows to be assessed more than one bookie has to be at that price – that is the standout (or best) prices is not used.
Betting exchanges only show the BEST price and claim its represents the value surely we are not arguing on this point. Betting Exchanges balantly mislead the public as to what the price is.
re 4. I know this BUT they don’t do the math to work out display the weight price. Its not ard its <br>For N (where N is the number of runners)<br>(i) for each price half the matched-bet<br>(ii) multiply (i) by the price (=liability)<br>(iii) add the stakes and the liabilites<br>(iv) divide liabilities by stakes to get weighted odds<br>(v) divide 1 by the weighted price to get market percentage<br>for N=1 to N add (v)
– be a lot easier if Betfair just said "here it is"
re 5. what are you smoking – this is the 2nd most fictious figure in wagering (the first being matched bets – which just bullsh*t
lastly – I don’t have to ask bookies – that is what there are betting ring stewards and price assessors for (plus we have the (substantial) tote that also gives assessment of weight of money (in an unbiased mathematical way)
rouge homme<br>May 22, 2003 at 13:36 #103002
redman<br>I was replying to your post as you put forward a valid(ish) argument as you have deegrated to dergogatry terms, then I can only give you the following advice. The elbow is the one on the upper limb, the ar*e seems to the one from whence you speak. :biggrin:May 22, 2003 at 13:42 #103003
you know I am talking about British Racing and you know that the Government won’t ever let it happen. As to offshore SP – as I undertstand it they all take it from the offshore market rather than collusion to set a UK SP.
as to GPT – its not over yet … by a long shot
as OFT I have never made any pronoucemnts on that, though in case you are referring your erroneous comments suggesting the OFT has overturned the IP rights … that’s not true is it – they have just question whether the BHB owns them of other elements of Racing
as to regulation .. nit sure what you mean but I read in the DCMS papers more or less what I expected (given the UKs desire for a "free-market") but that’s not say I think that’s right
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