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With respect Dartguru, unless you post the races and selections on the day I fail to see how anyone could offer any advice.
When you say that
"She’ll always do two horses in a race (just occassionally three in bigger fields), with maybe up to six races at a time"
is not really much use is it?
Have a look at…
http://www.britishhorseracing.com/insid … apping.asp
Download the
Guide to Handicapping
and then search the document for the word ‘competitive’.
Nathan
Re. the 5% – sorry, must be suffering from that attention deficit thingy.
As regards calculating the % diff for odds on…..
A
4/11 = 1.36 decimal odds
B
4/9 = 1.44 decimal odds
(100/1.36) – (100/1.44) = 4.08%
Nathan
Is this a Stop At A Winner thread?
Seriously, I’ve just been looking at how your system has/would have fared from last Sunday onwards and have noticed that….
There were three possibles on Sunday but none fitted your odds criteria so no bets and six possibles on Monday from which My Name Is Sam (3.9% diff) would have been a selection.
Yesterday there were again six possibles with Roxane Bruere (1.8% diff) the selection.
Earlier this morning there were 22 possibles for today which at the time of writing has been reduced by non-runners to 18. Even so that’s more than enough to be checking up on!
You say that your problems start when you have jointly priced selections.
You don’t say exactly when, in relation to the race time, you’re viewing the odds on offer.
Could you elaborate please?
I’ve got HRB running in the background so let me know if I can help.
I can give you the bare figures but if you want to add any parameters, e.g. race distance, field size, colour of horse (
) etc., just ask.Oasisdreamer
I certainly don’t mind you ‘taking on’ the system.
Hope you find a profitable angle or two.
Oasisdreamer
I’m assuming that your spreadsheet looks something like this:-
Cell A1 = time
Cell B1 = track
Cell C1 = horse
Cell D1 = prize
Cell E1 = totaland that you’ve already sorted the runners by time (ascending), then track (ascending) and finally total (descending).
It appears you’ve already done something similar, but I’ll cover it anyway: label cell F1 ‘
VR
‘ and cell G1 ‘
VR rank
‘.
Than in cell F2 enter the formula
=IF(E2 < > "";E2/(D2/100);"") and copy the formula down to the last row containing data
In cell G2 enter the formula
=SUMPRODUCT(–(A$2:A$331=A2);–(F2 < F$2:F$331))+1
You’ll notice that the cell G2 formula I’ve shown indicates that row 331 was the last row in the spreadsheet that contained any data. You can change this number to suit the number of runners you have data for on any particular day then simply copy the formula down to the last row with data.
One final thing. I’ve put spaces before, in between and after the less than and greater than characters in the first formula and before and after the less than character in the second formula. This was purely a precaution to make sure they displayed correctly in my post. You should remove them if you copy and paste the formulas in to your spreadsheet otherwise they may not work.
Hope this helps.
fillychick96
Thanks for your reply to my queries but I’m really none the wiser.
When I posed the questions…
1. What was the size of the bank to start with?
2. What is the current position of the bank?
I was hoping for a response along the lines of……
1. Opening bank £1000
2. Current bank £1100.75
You’ve thrown me now by saying "Minimum banks are £500 and £1000".
What do you mean by minimum banks and why are there two?
Thanks and good luck.
fillychick96
I was hoping this wasn’t going to be just another one of those threads littered with smiley/sad/blushing faces in place of some proper accounting but after following your progress for a few days it would appear my hopes have been dashed.
Your opening post mentioned a ‘% of the bank’ staking plan so perhaps you could answer a couple of questions please?
1. What was the size of the bank to start with?
2. What is the current position of the bank?
3. Are you actually laying these selections on the exchanges or just monitoring them?
Just looked at my prediction for Southwell 12th July and perming selections 1 and 2 would have won the place pot.
I’ve just looked at your predictions for Southwell 12th July as well.
Sorry to have to draw this to your attention, but you wouldn’t have won the Placepot as your selections in the 7:40 (Leg 4), Majestic Millie & Two Bucks More were both unplaced.
As I said, sorry to have to point this out to you but I’m a bit of a stickler for detail.
At the risk of repeating myself……
[b:1f7rma0s]races over 7f & further on old outer home straight; actual race distances: 6f ,7f & 13yds,1m & 13yds, 1m 3f & 213yds[/color:1f7rma0s][/b:1f7rma0s][/size:1f7rma0s]
I noticed this yesterday on Racing Post racecards and the info is repeated today…….
GOING: 5f & 6f – GOOD TO FIRM (Good in places; 8.6); 7f & further – GOOD; 7.7) (Races over 5f & 6f on new inner home straight;
races over 7f & further on old outer home straight; actual race distances: 6f ,7f & 13yds,1m & 13yds, 1m 3f & 213yds)
. (White cloud, light showers)
[b:37k3cq83]MrE[/color:37k3cq83][/size:37k3cq83][/b:37k3cq83]
Your staking plan is similar to one I came across a few years ago namely……..
If you can get your selections to a point where they do not run into horror losing streaks, the following plan will be most useful. If, over a period of years, it has become apparent that your winners fall in a certain price bracket, and that you can, say, pick one winner in five, at an average of 4/1 or better, then you simply have to be a candidate for this progression approach.
There is a simple step-by-step staking plan, and you should never get into too much strife. The recommended staking steps are as follows: 1-1-1-1-2-2-3-4-5-6.
This means a total outlay of 26 units over 10 bets. If you have five bets a week, that’s two weeks’ action. Each loser takes you onto the next stage in the progression, but if you strike a winner and a profit is shown then you rule off and start a new series.
At the various stages of this progression plan, a win would return 400%, 250%, 66%, 25%, 40%, 25%, 36%, 33%, 25% and finally 15%.
If you strike a winner at less than 4/1, you simply keep going with the sequence, unless, of course, you find yourself in profit, in which case you end the series.
I’ve been looking at this thread on and off since it started but I’m must admit that without a spreadsheet to help me I’m struggling with some of the maths!
Anyway, that’s bye the bye. The main reason for posting is that I have a query for you regarding today’s selection, Ladies Are Forever.
You mention the Nell Gwyn race won by Barefoot Lady who then went on to finish 5th in the 1000 Guineas. Did you notice that Maqaasid who finished 3rd in the Nell Gwyn went on to finish 3rd in the 1000 Guineas two places ahead of Barefoot Lady?
The reason I ask this is because I was wondering if Maqaasid should be the ‘key horse’ from the Nell Gwyn rather than Barefoot Lady, and if that were so would it have any bearing on today’s rating figure for Ladies Are Forever?
By the way, on the subject of biorhythms, I’ve been meaning to ask you for several weeks if you were the author of a couple of articles on the topic published way back in 2004 in the Punter Profits Betting Journal.
All the best.
