FantasyForm

[Alexander]

Sorry for the late Saturday posting, however Simeon has backtracking form in a race where hardly any of these can be found with subsequent form.

Saturday April 30 2011
Goodwood 15:30
totescoop6 Handicap
£30000.00 added, 4yo plus, 1m 6f, Class 2, £19428.00 penalty
11 runners
Going: Good (Round Course: Good to Firm)
Surface: Turf
No. Form Horse Age Trainer Jockey
1 (3) 3626/37- Petara Bay (IRE) 315 7 R Mills Jim Crowley #
2 (4) 7302D-2 Moyenne Corniche 27 6 B Ellison G Baker #
3 (8) 2/3157- Very Good Day (FR) 277 4 M R Channon C Catlin #
4 (6) 221239/ Investissement 407 5 J H M Gosden N Mackay #
5 (2)

444683- Simenon (IRE) 175 4 A M Balding David Probert 286

6 (5) 221339- Western Pearl 184 4 W J Knight S W Kelly #
8 (10) 331120/ Harry Tricker 49 7 G L Moore D Sweeney #
9 (12) 90-1163 Exemplary 14 4 M Johnston Greg Fairley #
10 (9) 15358-2 Montparnasse (IRE) 14 4 K A Ryan S Donohoe #
11 (1) 720030- Dazinski 196 5 M H Tompkins E Ahern #
12 (7) 23419-1 Battleoftrafalgar 28 4 M J Attwater T P O’Shea #

Non-Runners
7 (11) 511124 Mush Mir (IRE) 14 4 J R Boyle Steven Craine

[Alexander]

Huygens hasn’t run for 233 days so with the last race date as 11th Sept it wasn’t too surprising to find subsequent form that warrants a good rating. Given last year’s rating level of 103 & expected rating level for this race at 230 our selection looks an attractive proposition if we can forgive the long absence.

Monday May 2 2011
Kempton Park 16:00
kempton.co.uk Jubilee Handicap (London Mile Qualifier)
£10301.00 added, 4yo plus, 1m, Class 3, £6419.00 penalty
14 runners
Going: Standard
Surface: Polytrack
No. Form Horse Age Trainer Jockey

1 (10) 3/13855- Huygens 233 4 D J Coakley J P Spencer 525

2 (5) 6365-05 Highland Knight (IRE) 9 4 A M Balding J Fortune ~
3 (6) 2008987 Greyfriarschorista 16 4 M Johnston Greg Fairley #
4 (12) 9/55400- Big Noise 199 7 Dr J D Scargill Jim Crowley #
5 (11) 141274- Watch Amigo (IRE) 226 5 W R Swinburn S W Kelly #
6 (1) 1510-70 Shamir 37 4 Miss Jo Crowley F Norton #
7 (8) 2/143- Call To Reason (IRE) 184 4 J Noseda R L Moore #
8 (2) 2-01882 Avon River 30 4 R Hannon R Hughes #
9 (3) 2441-6 All Action (USA) 16 4 H R A Cecil I Mongan #
10 (7) 7/51747- Dukes Art 284 5 J A R Toller R Havlin #
11 (9) 1424-74 Space Station 32 5 S Dow S Sanders 92
12 (13) 77-8097 The Scorching Wind (IRE) 38 5 S C Williams P Robinson #
13 (4) 3613-90 Merchant Of Medici 16 4 W R Muir N Callan #
14 (14) 530-111 Resuscitator (USA) 79 4 Mrs H Main R Ffrench #

Expected rating this race : 230
Last Year rating this race: 103

[Alexander]

Pssst: keep it quiet but

Signifier

in the 2.30pm at Bath tomorrow looks absolutely nailed on.
Backtracking form is in the region of 600 !!
Take any price better than odds on – be quick off the mark.
Could be the bet of the season.
Alex

[cormack15]

Great stuff Alexander. Keep it coming, very interesting.

[Alexander]

Great stuff Alexander. Keep it coming, very interesting.

Cormack, glad you find this thread interesting. Tomorow’s race will find me out – any flaws in the FantasyForm and I shall be hiding under the nearest stone. But if this one works out, I shall be dining out after racing at the nearby Rose & Crown

[Alexander]

Plenty has been flagged up regarding this race. The form of Signifier has been franked strongly since and the rating looks just too good to be true. Must be a nap choice
As advized yesterday any price at odds against would be attractive – 6/4 & 5/4 have been readily available.
Odds on now and shortening all the time – don’t say I didn’t warn you !

Tuesday May 3 2011
Bath 14:30
HSBC Maiden Auction Stakes
£3600.00 added, 2yo only, 5f 11y, Class 5, £2457.00 penalty
6 runners
Going: Firm
Surface: Turf
No. Form Horse Age Trainer Jockey

1 (3) 2 Signifer (IRE) 18 2 M R Channon M Harley (3) 634

2 (7) Bajan Hero 2 P D Evans Catherine Gannon #
4 (4) 2 That’s Dangerous 28 2 R Charlton S Drowne #
5 (1) Shout For Joy (IRE) 2 R Hannon R Hughes #
6 (5) 7 Steady The Buffs 19 2 H Palmer L Morris #
7 (2) 5 Dream Whisperer 33 2 D J S ffrench Davis Billy Cray (3) 184

[Alexander]

Plenty has been flagged up regarding this race. The form of Signifier has been franked strongly since and the rating looks just too good to be true. Must be a nap choice
As advized yesterday any price at odds against would be attractive – 6/4 & 5/4 have been readily available.
Odds on now and shortening all the time – don’t say I didn’t warn you !

Tuesday May 3 2011
Bath 14:30
HSBC Maiden Auction Stakes
£3600.00 added, 2yo only, 5f 11y, Class 5, £2457.00 penalty
6 runners
Going: Firm
Surface: Turf
No. Form Horse Age Trainer Jockey

1 (3) 2 Signifer (IRE) 18 2 M R Channon M Harley (3) 634

2 (7) Bajan Hero 2 P D Evans Catherine Gannon #
4 (4) 2 That’s Dangerous 28 2 R Charlton S Drowne #
5 (1) Shout For Joy (IRE) 2 R Hannon R Hughes #
6 (5) 7 Steady The Buffs 19 2 H Palmer L Morris #
7 (2) 5 Dream Whisperer 33 2 D J S ffrench Davis Billy Cray (3) 184

[Alexander]

Good day for me yesterday, even allowing for deductions for 2 non runners in Signifier’s Bath race. I’d snaffled 6/4 Monday evening.
There is a certain satisfaction about these sort of winning bets when the price shortens up dramatically after the bet is struck.

Anyway, today at Chester with Channel 4 Blaise Chorus carries the fantasy form best rating. Ran 18th March at Deauville with the winner from that race Galaxie Sud running again with credit at Longchamp .The rating achieved of 538 when backtracked to the original race of 18th March finds Blaise Chorus 5pts behind with a subsequent rating of 533. Last year there was a rating achieved of 540 (Gertrude Bell 5/2f) The Cheshire Oaks is a high calibre race and I would expect a rating in the region of 750. Nevertheless, Blaise Chorus is not too far adrift for an ew venture.

Wednesday May 4 2011
Chester 14:20
Weatherbys Bank Cheshire Oaks (For The Robert Sangster Memorial Cup) (Fillies’ Listed)
3yo only, 1m 3f 79y, Class 1, £17031.00 penalty
9 runners
Going: Good to Firm
Surface: Turf
No. Form Horse Age Trainer Jockey #
1 (9) 69- Bilidn 289 3 C E Brittain P Robinson #

2 (1) 23 Blaise Chorus (IRE) 47 3 B W Hills M Hills 534

3 (5) 431- Encore Une Annee 180 3 R M Beckett Jim Crowley #
4 (3) 14734- Fork Handles 221 3 M R Channon J P Spencer #
5 (6) 134- Jaaryah (IRE) 193 3 R Varian L Dettori #
6 (2) 217- Midnight Caller 236 3 J H M Gosden William Buick #
7 (7) 1537-6 Musharakaat (IRE) 21 3 E A L Dunlop R Hills 138
8 (4) 40635 Sunday Bess (JPN) 19 3 Tom Dascombe R Kingscote #
9 (8) 25965 Wonder of Wonders (USA) 6 3 A P O’Brien R L Moore #

Expected rating : 750
Last Year’s rating 540

[Alexander]

Here is a race to kick start your Saturday

scoop 6

. Beacon Lodge btn on 17th July by Fuisse. Fuisse since won a valueable Longchamp mile, Backtrack that form and the resultant 806 is very much in line with the expected level for the race to hand.
The Cheka has good rating but is a doubtful runner.

Saturday May 7 2011
Haydock Park 14:00
toteplacepot Spring Trophy Stakes (Listed)
£30000.00 added, 3yo plus, 7f 30y, Class 1, £17031.00 penalty
8 runners
Going: Flat: Good to Firm; NH: Good.
Surface: Turf
No. Form Horse Age Trainer Jockey
1 (1) 0207-16 Dunelight (IRE) 21 8 C G Cox P Mulrennan #

2 (2) 635/542- Beacon Lodge (IRE) 294 6 C G Cox P Robinson 806

3 (4) 483-344 Duff (IRE) 21 8 E Lynam S W Kelly 381
4 (7) 211110- Kakatosi 224 4 A M Balding L Keniry 340
5 (8) 6039-58 Lovelace 21 7 D Nicholls Adrian Nicholls #
6 (3) 3110-20 Redford (IRE) 9 6 D Nicholls T E Durcan 651
7 (5) 46825-2 The Cheka (IRE) 34 5 Eve Johnson Houghton DOUBTFUL 800
8 (6) 010133- Folly Bridge 247 4 R Charlton S Drowne 377

[Alexander]

Monday has good evening races with Class 1 event. The Cheka sidestepped racing on Saturday for this event and the rating would indicate he is up to winning this.

Monday May 9 2011
Windsor 18:40
sportingbet.com Stakes (Registered As The Royal Windsor Stakes) (Listed)
£30000.00 added, 3yo plus, 1m 67y, Class 1, £17031.00 penalty
7 runners
Going: Good
Surface: Turf
No. Form Horse Age Trainer Jockey
1 (5) 0207-16 Dunelight (IRE) 23 8 C G Cox A Kirby 299
2 (7) 17125-4 Penitent 37 5 W J Haggas R Hughes 120
3 (1) 1312-31 Side Glance 12 4 A M Balding J Fortune 141
4 (4) 9011-69 Spirit of Sharjah (IRE) 23 6 Miss J Feilden L Dettori #
5 (6) 8/2710-4 Set The Trend 23 5 A M Balding L Keniry 127

6 (2) 46825-2 The Cheka (IRE) 36 5 Eve Johnson Houghton K Fallon 800

7 (3) 12016-6 The Rectifier (USA) 23 4 J R Boyle M Fenton #
Expected level of rating : 780
Last Year : 266

[Hatter]

Hi Alex

Trying to follow the maths here
On Sat The Cheka had a rating of 800 but today in the same class race it is down to 135.
If so, should it be Dunelight as selection ?

Good one for Sat btw

[Alexander]

Hi Alex

Trying to follow the maths here
On Sat The Cheka had a rating of 800 but today in the same class race it is down to 135.
If so, should it be Dunelight as selection ?

Good one for Sat btw

Sorry about the mistake here: The figure is put against the wrong horse this morning. The Cheka should be 800 the runner below should be #. Thanks for pointing out the type error.
Alex

[Alexander]

York tomorrow (Wednesday) with good class events.
Ladies Are Forever would not appear to be a candidate due to her official rating propping the rest of the field up. However, following her Nell Gwyn run on 13th April we find a link to Barefoot lady who won that race and went on to finish 5th in the 1000gns. Backracking finds Ladies Are Forever with an adjusted rating of 1725. The 1725 rating matches up to expected rating for this race of 1220. Markab should be noted due to her second best rating; again well up to the expected levels for a win.

Wednesday May 11 2011
York 15:00
Duke Of York Blue Square Stakes (Group 2)
£100000.00 added, 3yo plus, 6f, Class 1, £56770.00 penalty
14 runners
Going: Good, Good to Soft in places
Surface: Turf
No. Form Horse Age Trainer Jockey
1 (4) 5/11261- Markab 249 8 H Candy P Cosgrave

1526

2 (7) 153223- Dalghar (FR) 191 5 A M Balding J Fortune #
3 (9) D35/148- Delegator 186 5 Saeed bin Suroor L Dettori #
4 (5) 10342-1 Genki (IRE) 27 7 R Charlton S Drowne #
5 (2) 1444-31 Hamish McGonagall 18 6 T D Easterby D Allan #
6 (13) 221-554 Hitchens (IRE) 39 6 T D Barron G Gibbons #
7 (14) 1/0561-5 Inler (IRE) 27 4 B J Meehan Martin Dwyer #
8 (3) 400-760 Prime Defender 10 7 B W Hills R Winston #
9 (1) 9922 Rain Delayed (IRE) 11 5 M Dods J P Murtagh #
10 (12) 01164-5 Regal Parade 38 7 D Nicholls Adrian Nicholls #
11 (8) 44740-0 Tiddliwinks 10 5 K A Ryan P Makin #
12 (10) 1U500-7 Triple Aspect (IRE) 46 5 W J Haggas R L Moore #
13 (6) 261520- Rose Blossom 220 4 R A Fahey P Hanagan #

14 (11) 131-5 Ladies Are Forever 28 3 G R Oldroyd T Eaves 1725

Expected rating level this race : 1220
Last Year’s rating 320

[discretedata]

I’ve been looking at this thread on and off since it started but I’m must admit that without a spreadsheet to help me I’m struggling with some of the maths!

Anyway, that’s bye the bye. The main reason for posting is that I have a query for you regarding today’s selection, Ladies Are Forever.

You mention the Nell Gwyn race won by Barefoot Lady who then went on to finish 5th in the 1000 Guineas. Did you notice that Maqaasid who finished 3rd in the Nell Gwyn went on to finish 3rd in the 1000 Guineas two places ahead of Barefoot Lady?

The reason I ask this is because I was wondering if Maqaasid should be the ‘key horse’ from the Nell Gwyn rather than Barefoot Lady, and if that were so would it have any bearing on today’s rating figure for Ladies Are Forever?

By the way, on the subject of biorhythms, I’ve been meaning to ask you for several weeks if you were the author of a couple of articles on the topic published way back in 2004 in the Punter Profits Betting Journal.

All the best.

[Alexander]

I’ve been looking at this thread on and off since it started but I’m must admit that without a spreadsheet to help me I’m struggling with some of the maths!

Anyway, that’s bye the bye. The main reason for posting is that I have a query for you regarding today’s selection, Ladies Are Forever.

You mention the Nell Gwyn race won by Barefoot Lady who then went on to finish 5th in the 1000 Guineas. Did you notice that Maqaasid who finished 3rd in the Nell Gwyn went on to finish 3rd in the 1000 Guineas two places ahead of Barefoot Lady?

The reason I ask this is because I was wondering if Maqaasid should be the ‘key horse’ from the Nell Gwyn rather than Barefoot Lady, and if that were so would it have any bearing on today’s rating figure for Ladies Are Forever?

By the way, on the subject of biorhythms, I’ve been meaning to ask you for several weeks if you were the author of a couple of articles on the topic published way back in 2004 in the Punter Profits Betting Journal.

All the best.

Hi discretedata,
Barefoot Lady as the winner of Ladies Are Forever’s race was deemed the link or key, instead of Maqaasid. The original race 13th April and its runners position takes preference working back for subsequent form. Although as you have observed Maqaasid is indeed a strong candidate and would return a good rating. However, as the method is organised the rating is just short of Barefoot Lady, nothwithstanding that on 1st May’s race Maqassid (3rd) finished in front of Barefoot Lady (5th) with a couple of lengths difference.

Good racing on ch4 today, but i’ve later to go to the dentist so I will only half enjoy it I suppose.

I am indeed the author of those articles on Biorhythms. Was it really as long ago as 2004 ?
Being brutally honest I have gone around in circles looking for a link between form and cycles of days that are repeatable. Nothing when tested over time has proven to be of real merit.

There was a time when I thought that each horse would have its unique cycle and once the number of days were identified for an individual, good form could be predicted within about a 10 day block. I had some fun and a few brillant betting outcomes. It didn’t stay the test of time and eventually I have had to accept defeat.

In years to come no doubt, someone with a sophisticated programme will take up the cudgel and circadian cycles will play a routine part in form analysis. Maybe anyway.

Thanks for the interest.
Alex

[Alexander]

The only clear candidate today from the selected handicap is St.Moritz. The rating achieved is 1416 against the expected rating for this race being 530. I’ve done a back of an envelope calculation in an attempt at finding value: The outcome is that St.Moritz warrants a theoretical tissue price of 7/2. Next best Light From Mars (450 rating) 8/1 & third best Pintura (390) at 9/1. Maybe this is a bridge too far from the FantasyForm concept of raw figures in assigning odds but for awhile I will post both ratings and these theoretical odds in a quest for value bets.
Today its a definite St.Moritz EW venture if the anticipated 7/1 is still around.

Thursday May 12 2011
York 15:00
totesport 0800 221 221 Hambleton Stakes (Listed Handicap)
£30000.00 added, 4yo plus, 1m, Class 1, £17778.00 penalty
19 runners
Going: Good
Surface: Turf
No. Form Horse Age Trainer Jockey
1 (10) 6-04325 Fareer 26 5 E A L Dunlop R Hills 127
2 (5) 36010-0 Harrison George (IRE) 40 6 R A Fahey T Hamilton 136

3 (8) 150-112 St Moritz (IRE) 15 5 D Nicholls Adrian Nicholls 1416

4 (12) 210023- Balducci 194 4 A M Balding J Fortune 288
5 (16) 6530-81 Light From Mars 26 6 D Nicholls T Eaves 450
6 (1) 4/138-P Capital Attraction (USA) 26 4 H R A Cecil T P Queally #
7 (15) 2414-23 Off Chance 12 5 T D Easterby D Fentiman #
8 (9) 37603-8 Crystal Gal (IRE) 11 4 Mrs L Wadham R L Moore #
9 (17) 93000-1 Wannabe King 19 5 D R Lanigan T E Durcan #
10 (11) 011-696 Spirit of Sharjah (IRE) 3 6 Miss J Feilden J Fanning #
11 (4) 244520- Mass Rally (IRE) 209 4 M Dods Freddie Tylicki #
12 (14) 310-045 Osteopathic Remedy (IRE) 12 7 M Dods S M Levey #
13 (6) 2061-20 Dance And Dance (IRE) 19 5 E F Vaughan L Dettori #
14 (18) 4/16360- Party Doctor 268 4 Tom Dascombe K Fallon #
15 (3) 7700-30 Balcarce Nov (ARG) 12 6 T P Tate J P Spencer #
16 (19) 1410-41 Justonefortheroad 12 5 R A Fahey P Hanagan #
17 (7) 796769- Mont Agel 215 4 M L W Bell Hayley Turner #
18 (13) 3557-65 Totally Ours 12 4 W R Muir Martin Lane #
19 (2) 312-922 Pintura 6 4 D M Simcock S De Sousa 390

Expected level of rating : 530
Last Year : 390

[Alexander]

Friday the 13th – staying in bed all day – its still ok to look at The Jorvik Handicap for analysis. The ratings thrown up do not match up the expected level that this race warrants. We are looking for something in the region of at least 600. Last year’s outcome, the rating was close to 500. Mateeleb has highest rating with 373. Verdant bt Mateeleb (Good 28/7) shd & then subsequently has run a couple of times. (Nby 16/4) close up 5th in valueable enough event rating 374. Backtracking we find Mateleb with 373. The odds calclulated should be around 12/1 which is probably close to the eventual Sp. However, the rating is just too far adrift from the expected so its watching only today.

Friday May 13 2011
York 14:00
sportingbet.com Jorvik Handicap
£40000.00 added, 4yo plus, 1m 4f, Class 2, £25904.00 penalty
16 runners
Going: Good, Good to Firm in places
Surface: Turf
No. Form Horse Age Trainer Jockey
1 (4) 0/311- Awsaal 356 4 J L Dunlop T P O’Shea 72
2 (2) 8/75111- Kansai Spirit (IRE) 251 5 J H M Gosden William Buick #
3 (5) 10130-4 The Fonz 12 5 Sir Michael Stoute R L Moore #
4 (9) 219120- Hanoverian Baron 245 6 A G Newcombe S Drowne #
5 (10) 105328- Chilly Filly (IRE) 216 5 J G Given P Mulrennan 30
6 (1) 15370-6 Deauville Flyer 27 5 T D Easterby K Fallon #
7 (16) 0/2152- Mataaleb 289 4 Mrs L Pearce T P Queally 373
8 (17) 28432-6 Averroes (IRE) 41 4 C G Cox P Robinson 175
9 (3) 1227-53 English Summer 12 4 M Johnston R Ffrench #
10 (12) 173318- Tepmokea (IRE) 188 5 R A Fahey P Hanagan #
11 (11) 57862-3 Bowdler’s Magic 48 4 M Johnston Greg Fairley 262
12 (15) 5358-29 Montparnasse (IRE) 13 4 K A Ryan J P Spencer #
13 (13) 0480-53 Crackentorp 12 6 T D Easterby G Gibbons #
15 (8) 5-12910 Lovers Causeway (USA) (ex6) 2 4 M Johnston J Fanning #
16 (7) 2159-22 Royal Swain (IRE) 12 5 G A Swinbank J Quinn #
17 (14) 82367-4 Dazzling Light (UAE) 20 6 J S Goldie Neil Farley (5) 190

Expected rating this race : 600

[Author]

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