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Tooting,
I work soley on my ratings and the critea’s I feel that are important when search for a winner, the selection was Robbo and after adding a few other things that I don’t think are important but are clearly important in the way the market is shaped I calclated a 90% book which I will only back selections that match (if I REALLY think it’s a good thing) or are higher than the returned figure (7.6/1) so I would have backed Robbo at odds of 9/1 but no lower as it was a tough race.<br>2nd rated was Binderee (8.6/1) who was no value , Red Striker was 3rd rated (9.2/1) and in my opinion over priced at 14/1 (didn’t see 14’s so I took 12’s) so I chose RS as a saver which is something I don’t always do but just had a ‘gut feeling’ after seeing major money for this on the exchanges late Friday night/very early Saturday morning. Yes, I do find value rarely on my selections but it’s worth the wait as the market clearly proved to be false early doors as Red Striker hit 8/1 & Robbo 6/1 when the on-course market opened which proved my point in this particular race.
The price I get doesn’t dictate how much I stake as it is my confidence in the selection that determines that, I will always ignore the selections if I can’t get on at the right price which does mean I miss winners but I know long term it’s for the best as I look at it as putting the chances of sucess in my favor if I only back over priced ones. I average a low strike rate, people will not believe you can show a profit from a low SR but you can as my average winning odds are decent at present but if I took SP I would at best be level! I regularly encounter 20’ish losing runs and it gets me down (as Nev will testify) but according to my low strike rate this is to be expected. I average about low profit which is something I have acheived for a while now and I’m perfectly happy just knowing I ain’t giving it away any more and should my bank ever become huge the low % will not be anything to be sniffed at for something you enjoy doing.
Please bare in mind I get a lot more wrong than right and Saturday was one of those rare occasions I got a race almost right but it does highlight you have to look for value instead of just taking a price with the rest of the betting shop crowd as the difference would have been £120 had Robbo won from a modest stake compared from SP to price taken – a sum of money not many would turn their nose up at, but some would! (read earlier posts) :biggrin: and to only a £10 saver the difference was £30 getting the ‘value’.
My 3 selections yesterday were Robbo, Red Striker & Barren Lands and the prices I calculated as value were:
Robbo 9/1<br>Red striker 11/1<br>Barren Lands 8/1
I got Robbo at 10/1, Redstriker at 12/1 and Barren Lands best price I could find was 6/1 so I left it alone.<br>It matters not whether they win or lose (yesterday was just a good day of which there are not that many) as I knew I was backing what I considered good value.
I spent 1 hour making my selections and 2 hours finding the best prices – finding the best price is just as important as finding the winner to me as we all have winners but it’s what price you get which I feel makes the difference.
Sure Aidan,
Sindaar, Giant’s Causway, Monjeur, Kalanisi made it a sheer top class season, there were others than contributed but these 4 really made the season for me!
It’s getting a bit personal now and lowering the helpfulness of this thread. Maybe only post if you have something constuctive to post?
My book translates ratings into prices and highlights selections that are bigger prices than my book forecast, which in turn makes it ‘value’ in my eyes and determines what price I play at and what price I leave!
My book is 100% correct to MY ratings, which obviously are not 100% correct otherwise I would win every race – if it were 100% accurate to the bookies prices then there would be very little point in doing a book!!<br>
As previously discussed on this thread Luke it is to transfer your/users ratings into a calculated book from the users ratings. You have to have to have your own ratings! This program will only highlight value according to the users ratings. It’s not going to be a complete book calculator as that’s what odds compilers are employed to do, is just going to be a quick, simple aid to help transfer ratings into odds which should highlight value odds according to your ratings (basicially taking all the calculation work out of transfer data which will be done in a second).
What I’ll do is a demo version that will work for a few months, anyone can download to see if it helps them and then I’ll sell it in the TRF shop for something silly like £5, if you find it a help and you want the fully working version.
It looks as though it will take about 2-3 days to write so I should get the demo version done by then I hope.
Does that sound fair as the forum needs to start supporting itself finacially and to start recovering some costs, by buying it you will be paying for software as you would elsewhere whilst supporting the forum finacially.
I’ve had a few private messages now asking for more information on how to created a book so I’ve decided to write a program that works out a book automaticially from the ratings put in.
Would this be of intrest to anybody?
Hi Ali,
I can see where you’re coming from but I think you’ve missed the point as if you want an accurate book, just look at tissue prices. The aim is to quote a book to your system to highlight value of your selection which will give you a fair idea of what price you think it should be (not what the bookmakers think). We all know the bookmaker’s books are very accurate but we are just trying to find (using OUR system) what price we would describe as "value".
I hope this helps, as it is tricky to explain and this is my reason for doing a book, although I’m sure others have different reasons and techniques.
It’s because I’m always doing the competition scores Esc and I was working it out they way :rolleyes: these competions are sending me loopy….LOL
Ali,<br>The book would reflect how much percent your system gives the horse (odds) and will indicate whether good or bad value mate.
Sorry Esc you are quite right (as always!:smiley: )….it’s been one hell of a long day for me! Maybe not such a good idea to get into a debate with you when not 100% awake :o
Ali, I would gladly show you one of my books when I do one as I have written a program that produces this from my speed ratings but I’m not impressed with this years AW performance (due to surface changes altering standard times slightly) but when the flat season kicks in I would gladly do so – it only calculates ratings into percentages so it’s no big secret for me (similar to my example but using my stop watch ratings).
Quote: from Escorial on 4:17 pm on Jan. 15, 2002[br]DL…..if I had £100 at the beginning of the day and, I give my voucher to the bookmaker after the race….he gives me back £250….I made a profit of £150….I`d be happy with that….if I`d backed the winner, I`d have shown a profit of £72.72….so I made more than double that with my e.w. punt.<br>
Good evening sir….In fact it was merly £27.28 more than backing the favorite as £50 ew @ 20/1 on 1/5th odds = £200 returns cash (£250 for the place win minus £50 for your win loss).  Can you ask your bookie to do my accounts next week for me….:smiley:
Your win stake lost Esc so £50 needs subtracting from your total. :(
I’m not knocking you but I really think if you backed these types each way long term (20/1 shots hoping for 3rd place) you will come unstuck to which I hope I am wrong.
Your bookie must be ‘nut’s’ as a 20/1 shot x £50 each way at 1/5th the odds should have returned £200!!
I’m really glad you’re happy with your 1/1 place bet on a 20/1 shot, long term me thinks you won’t be so glad? :(
Yeah but Graham you can’t have 75% on the place part with a bookmaker though can you.
I’ve been biting my tongue and sitting on my hands on this one during the last few posts but the comment "If you think a horse should be 8/1 and its 4/1 – so what? If it wins you have a smaller profit than you’d think ideal but you’d have a profit." has made me respond!
Rob,<br>If you are prepared to back a selection 4pts under your estimated value price then good luck to you as you are really going to need it backing bad value consistently will lead you to the poor house at 100mph! That is like saying if you thought Istabraq would win this years Champion Hurdle this year you would gladly take 1/2 – No you wouldn’t because it’s just not a good price!
"Almost everyone can bag a 6/4 winner and some can get 16/1 winners – get on all your winners (be them 6/4 or 16/1) and in the long run, you’ll be in profit." If only it were that simple! Are you forgetting losing runs? As they happen to the best, if you only back 2/1 shots lets say, that means you HAVE to get 1 winner in every 3 bets to break even otherwise you lose! It may sound simple to you but you try it!
This whole game is about maths and by backing what you consider value gives you a better return long term and will only increase profits. If things aren’t right (price included) then why play? There will always be other days! The main thing I have learnt since my time of being here is those that tend to do well are the patient ones.
"How about each-way betting? Is this value? I have to say a resounding YES to this – but what do you lot think?" Each way betting is a bookmakers bet, as why don’t they let you do a place bet? reason is that they want your win bet! A common mis-conception over each way betting is the place return people instantly think a 20/1 will pay a nice 5/1 for the place – not true, it’s only true if it wins and at 20/1 you have a 5% chance of this! So presuming it loses would expect 5/1 return? You put a £10 bet on each way and it finishes second which you will recieve £50 back.
So you staked £20 to win £30 in reality – those odds equate to 6/4, not so generous eh! Whereas if a place bet existed other than at the Tote you could have had 5/1! I personally think it is a bet the bookmakers want as it carries little risk.
Of course this is only my opinion and an opinion I feel strongly about as a while back I decided each way betting is not for me and I’m the type that regularly backs double figure odds horses.
Ali,
The idea of creating a book is too highlight value using your system in comparison to that of the bookmakers, as the bookmakers allow for most things you mentioned. I personally am not looking to create a book identical to that of the bookmaker as that would be pointless as a professional (odds compiler) has spent more time then I ever can so I am looking to get a good idea of what price my selection should be to be classed as value/over-priced.
