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Can I just point out the reason why I started this thread, as people seem to be taking it personal for some reason and missing the whole point!
The point of my postings is to highlight very poor value bets in a bid to help anybody reading this to eliminate the bookies edge when things are clearly in his favor and not yours! Whether you take any notice is entirely up to the person reading the thread, if my input eliminates 1 bet that is clearly in the bookies favor and makes you seek alternative more fairer bets then it’s been a sucessful post in my opinion. There will always be people who swear blind they can continue to beat massively overround bets and who am I to argue if it’s true as I’m sure some people can defy the laws of probability regularly.
The ‘comfort blanket’ does hold true to me as if you are not confident to do a win bet then a place bet would suffice would it not? Escorial’s bet seems to be the focus in this thread and what I was saying is that Escorial paid out a 30% bookies tax on this bet and was forced to place a £50 on a win bet (by his own addmission) on a horse he did not feel was the winner. There are, and were alternative bets instead of a £50ew bet he could have had £100 on the place bet which eliminates the massive overrounds in some each way bets and had a full stake on instead of having to only placing half his stake on the bet he fancied.
Colin,<br>Whether this appears "childish and actually untrue" is a matter of opinion as this is my opinion and what confusses me is at the top of your post you back up my arguement with "if I had placed them on a win only basis, my profits would have been 28% higher". Isn’t the point – making better profit even if it means the losing runs are higher? <br>
They are ways and alternatives to backing each way by using the Tote online or Betabet’s place only market.<br>There you will find the bet you should have made ;)
Afternoon Esc,<br>I can see I am wasting my time trying to open your mind or as the saying goes that I’m wasting my time ‘trying to teach an old dog new tricks’ (not that your old or a dog….LOL) but it’s the law of averages that you seem to be missing by presuming you can constantly defy them which at some point you won’t so why continue to aid the bookmakers advantage.
Regarding the roulette example each and every spin has an overround of 105.4% so eventually if you stay there long enough you will see your bank slide. I agree each spin is exactly the same odds and has the same chance of the last spin but if you backed to a 105.4% book last spin as you will this spin, it would catch up with you eventually albeit 10, 100, 1,000 or 10,000 spins.
This is my final attempt to highlight the problem with bad value if backed long term.
Now if you are at the casion playing Roulette and you are just backing £1 on Red at Even money, the true odds of sucess are 18/19 (18 red, 18 black + zero) assuming the law of averages is correct you stay for 3,700 spins you would leave with £50 (not £100, because zero = 1/2 stake refunded) less than you went in with. Although the chance of zero coming up is 36/1 it will at some point and the longer you stay in there the more likely it is to come up. Now bear in mind 18/19 compared to evens is now great overround percentage (-1.35%, house overround of 5.4% on all possibilties), imagine what damage could have been done to 10% or even 68%!
So summed up basicially the longer you gamble against bad odds the more you will lose eventually no matter how good at finding the winners you are!
Rob,<br>Yes granted you will have winners and I can understand you think they produce profit but [/b]EVERYONE[/b] has losers and you are not taking this into account as it is the winners profits that subsidise the losing runs so the better the return the longer you can withstand the losing runs or have more profit if you show a winning year. This game is all about maths and increasing your chances of success so why play when odds are clearly against you?
Okay lets concentrate on Ecs bet then, I’ll try to explain it a bit better.
He got a 20/1 shot (assuming that should have been it’s true odds to 100% book) placed which had a real chance of 5.3/1 of being placed and yet he recieved 4/1 which on my reckoning he lost out on £65 to a £50 place stake.<br>Now a 5.3/1 shot has a percentage rating of 15.9% chance so if he repeated this bet he would get (according to the laws of averages) 1 right in every 5.3 bets so in effect if he maintain this 5.3 level of success (as the law of averages should dictate) then every 5.3pts staked on the place bet would return 4pts (20/1@ 1/5) which would result in a loss of 0.3pts per 5.3 staked.<br>Now this only applies to laws of averages and winners will come in fits and spurts but long term it will even itself out and amount to a considerable amount – say after staking 530 points, 30points would have been lost through backing a bad bet, if like me during the NH season £10 = 1 point (whist is a very modest stake compared to some) 30points would equal a loss of £300 just because I am backing bad value bets.<br>I think my maths are correct but it wouldn’t be the first time I got it wrong! :biggrin:
Where I think you 2 are falling down (IMHO) is that you are concentrating on winners and forget the losers as most punters do if they don’t keep records as I used too, its a convenient memory trick to remember the winners and forget the losers that your brain does. More can be learnt from backing a loser than a winner most of the time. It all boils down to how serious you are and how much effort you want to put into it to giving you a fighting chance long term, if your happy just to get a return no matter what it is then carry on by all means as there is nothing wrong with that for enjoyment purposes, I’m just trying to highlight a few things that could help you put odds in your favor if you’re serious. I’m no expert but I’m also no mug any longer!
Below is the scandalous way in which the punter can pay upto 68% in bookie over rounds on your each way place bets, this is off course on top of your price taken which already includes an overround. You may find this hard to believe so here are the maths which were orginally taken from Peter May’s book ‘Forecasting methods for horseracing’ and has been adapted by me to show the percentages of over rounds on you bets.
How to read the charts below: <br>Runners | Place % bookie pays (1/4 or 1/5) | Actual Fair % | Places paid | Difference (overround)
For Non-Handicap Races
05 | 25% | 38% | 2 | -13% (152%)<br>06 | 25% | 40% | 2 | -15% (160%)<br>07 | 25% | 42% | 2 | -17% (168%)<br>08 | 20% | 24% | 3 | -4% (112%)<br>09 | 20% | 25% | 3 | -5% (120%)<br>10 | 20% | 26% | 3 | -6% (124%)<br>12 | 20% | 27% | 3 | -7% (128%)<br>14 | 20% | 28% | 3 | -8% (132%)<br>16 | 20% | 29% | 3 | -9% (136%)<br>20 | 20% | 30% | 3 | -10% (140%)<br>25 | 20% | 31% | 3 | -11% (144%)
For Handicap Races
05 | 25% | 38% | 2 | -13% (152%)<br>06 | 25% | 40% | 2 | -15% (160%)<br>07 | 25% | 42% | 2 | -17% (168%)<br>08 | 20% | 24% | 3 | -4% (116%)<br>09 | 20% | 25% | 3 | -5% (120%)<br>10 | 20% | 26% | 3 | -6% (124%)<br>12 | 25% | 27% | 3 | -2% (108%)<br>14 | 25% | 28% | 3 | -3% (112%)<br>16 | 25% | 20% | 4 | +5% (80%)<br>20 | 25% | 21% | 4 | +4% (84%)<br>25 | 25% | 22% | 4 | +3% (88%)
<br>The only posative figures are in handicaps with 16 or more runners so in those races only an each way bet becomes a good bet, so when companies offer each way bets in big runner fields where they pay the first 5 home it is definately worth betting each way as you have a major advantage in your favor and you are betting to a punter friendly market. Next time you hear Big Mac say "bookies should be paying 5 places on +16 runner races" just think how ill informed he is as his efforts should be directed at small field races.  Remember in a 7 runner race you will be donating 68% of any winnings back into your bookmakers bank accout.<br>I hope this highlights to you how each way betting is designed and I hope it will put many of you off punting each way in certain races as you can’t win no matter what you think!<br>
Daylight shakes his head in disbelief :(
Hopefully my next post might convince you otherwise (but maybe not).
Morning Esc sir.
I just worked out your place bet in your each way bet – would it surprise you if I told you that you had been ripped off £20 (10%) if it was a handicap and £60 (30%) if it wasn’t a handicap?<br>Because you have been!
My point is why in the first place make an each way bet as 1/4 or 1/5 the odds are not fair odds. Why not back it place on the Tote and win anywhere else if you must place an each way bet.
The place part of an each way bet is a con!
Evening Esc Sir,
You would not give 10% to your bookie on your winnings yet you did on that bet, yep it won this time so you don’t care but won’t an extra 10% have been nice as thats appox what you lost out on because this is a bookie bet. 10% sounds alot but on certain each bets you are losing nearly 40% of what you should get! Now tell me that don’t bother you!
£3.60 a place – a £100 place only on the tote would have paid £360 (considerably more than your return).<br>Betabet do place only bets Esc.
Rob,<br>It isn’t true Escorial lost whether it won or lost – a concept that seems hard for some to grasp as it doesn’t just come down to picking your winnings up and thinking – that was a good!
Esc,<br>Afternoon sir :wave:<br>
good afternoon DL!……….did I not just prove to you that backing e.w. in a 13 runner race can be profitable….as long as you have got it right?…..
This was in fact a very bad bet – albeit this time it won and the readies ease the fact but a 13 runner race is a bad race in which to back each way!
<br>Rob & Ecs can you two answer this question please?
If a bookie said to you "you can have that bet at SP with me as long as you give me 10% of any winnings" –  what would you say? – ‘yes’ or ‘no’
The ONLY time each way betting is FAIR is when it’s a 16-17 runner handicap, so most each way bets are not a good bets as you are backing smaller odds than you should be. This is not ‘value’ just simple maths that says EW is a bad bet.
Would you still back the CSF now although you now know how bad value it is? Same principles apply to an each way bet to a lesser extent.
so you see, e.w. betting can be MORE profitable than betting to win….you just have to make sure you pick the right horses…..
<br> <br>This is just not true unless you only back in 16-17 runner races, any other races make your post very misleading and incorrect as you are heightening your chances long term. I suppose the money you donate to the bookies on this bet is the cost of a comfort blanket nowadays thought….;)
If a bookie said to you "you can have that bet at SP with me as long as you give me 10% of any winnings" –  what would you say? – ‘yes’ or ‘no'<br>
Nice senario Rob but remember a 10/1 chance has conderable less chance of being placed than a 1/2 shot has of being placed! The odds are irrelivant really as in most cases an each way bet means you won’t get a fair return.
The point I’m trying to make here it IS a bad value bet and IS in the bookmakers favor.
<br>I don’t understand the problem with each-way betting?
Each-way betting can be a value bet. If i had the choice to back a 1/2 fav or a 10/1 shot each-way, i’d go for the 10/1 shot e/w
A 10/1 shot that finishes 2nd, backed each way produces return odds of 5/4 (assuming that it was 1/4 the odds) – hardly seems such a great price now eh?
This bet is firmly in the bookies favor (apart from the very rare occasion) so why put yourself at a disadvantage before you start?
Wouldn’t youe hard earned be more profitable if you back win only? Just the losing runs will be longer but reward would be higher?
And if you are not confident enough to think it’s a winner wouldn’t it be best just to back the place bet, instead of losing your win bet?
I think the ‘comfort blaket’ is exactly what each way cetting is for people who don’t like losing runs.
#Moderation Mode
<a href=”https://theracingforum.co.uk/cgi-bin/ikonboard/topic.cgi?forum=23&topic=7″ target=”_self”>Moved here</a>
Ho Tooting, <br>We do indead sound similar but I have set stakes according to how I rate it’s chances not according if I smash the value, as this stops the wild betting sprees I used to have after hitting a winner – trying to hit a quick heavy double of winners (never seemed to work when the money was down). Sounds boring I know but it keeps me restrained.
