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I remember backing Tin Soldier 23rd Feb 2017 looking all over the loser 4 and 3 out but somehow Ruby conjured up a run and he got up by a length……… magic.
Replying to KevMc… your first post on page 3 I absolutely agree with. I’m having between 200 to 300 wagers per year and rely on percentages taking care in the long term. Betting EW at 5/1 minimum you need 17% winners to make 2% on 100 WIN bets assuming each winner is 5/1 but of course the average winning price will be higher than 5s so if I can get an ave of 7/1 I’d require 15% winners to make 20% on 100 bets. On the place side of things, assuming average placed at 7/1 one fifth, I’d need 45% PLACED to make 8% on 100 bets. So my aim is minimum 15% + 45% and don’t worry too much about losing runs (19 win + 7 place LLR in 2018). Which leads to the bank — I believe 100 points (½ point EW = 1 POINT) is ideal for my comfort zone and same stakes throughout the year.
Interestingly in 2017 I bet WO throughout but at 3/1 and up….. separating 5/1 and up only, 16.50% won for Lst + 52.87 and 45% placed for Lst +33.10 so for the first time in my punting life I’ll bet regularly EW in future.
Re getting value each bet this is hit and miss and in the eye of the beholder…BOG takes care of drifters. Biggest prob is bookie restrictions….. unfortunately where I live I can’t access BF.
To sum up in my case, I use roughly the same selection methods each time and let the percentages (hopefully) come into play in the long run……… and not be scared to back at long odds sometimes.
IMO EW is the best in the long term. I kept a record of all my EW wagers at 5/1 and up only in 2018:– There were 32 winners from 219 (14.68%) LSt + 94.35 (BOG) — + 22.71 (SP)
On the place section there were 96 placed from 219 (43.84%) LSt + 45.32 (BOG) — + 5.41 (SP)
It might be said why not just have 1 point WO instead of ½ point EW…..in my case it’s the confidence/psychological factor. 10 of those 32 winners were 10/1 and better returning 134 points (excl stake) which I may not have backed WO. I’m seriously thinking of raising my price limit to 10/1 and staying EW. One thing I do know, you cannot win long term SP as all the previous posters will agree.
2019 to date is modest compared to last year still 5/1 and up:–
6 winners from 87 (6.9%) LSt -19.70 (BOG) — -44.50 (SP)28 placed from 87 (32.18%) LSt +15.01 (BOG) — -14.80 (SP)
Those place figs were skewed by a 66/1¼ finishing second but every little helps.
Anyway there’s a long way to go this year and I’m confident I’ll turn it round.True betlarge if you could find one and I understand that value is in the eye of the beholder. I recall that before the 2016 US election one bookie paid out £800,000 on Clinton before polling day and a lady punter had £481,000 on her as well. All the experts called that one wrong as well as the referendum, so imo that’s where true value lies in questioning expert analysis.
Back the longer priced one EW – why not? Experts reckon EW punting is for wimps or because you’re not confident about a selections chances. If you back 20 x 10/1 shots at EW one fifth, it shouldn’t be impossible to get 6 placed minimum(30%)returning 21 points and with any luck, more placed and the odd winner to boot. Backing too short is difficult anyway in the long run, esp odds on.
I would imagine betting shops of the future will be fully digitalised with just a supervisor present. The days of a manager and cashiers taking bets will be history with computerised machines taking sports bets. You put your card or cash in the machine and presumably are given a reference or user id as with online accounts.Your tenner on a 3/1 winner will pay out your 40 like a high street ATM. What happens if you try to place 100 on a 7/1 shot in a selling hurdle at Cartmel, who knows? Will you be knocked back or referred to a trader? I imagine the vast majority of their turnover will be cartoon racing and online fruit machines, albeit with the maximum stakes reduced to £2. Most serious sports punters will stick to their online accounts with in the shops mainly the unemployed and OAP’s. Should be interesting to say the least.
Cheers Big – just a friendly argument with a friend settled. I imagine the same would apply to African Sister, 1939 Champion Hdl winner ridden by no less than Keith Piggott, Lester’s dad.
Some excellent points mentioned above. You read in the media that some idiot has stolen x amount from their employer and gambled it on FOBT’s or online ‘random number generators’ and then everyone who would rather bet than ‘gamble’ is tarnished with the same brush. ‘I couldn’t control myself and became addicted’ they bleat, and then along come some do-gooding ignorant politicians of whatever hue and attempt to equate this type of gambling with betting on sports, which are two completely different things. Form study requires discipline, analysis, dedication and self control, something altogether lacking with random numbers players.
Have you tried checking the results on https://www.irishracing.com/raceresults ?
If you’re a regular backer and keep a record, this is something you just have to factor in. It equals itself out in the end — you strongly fancy one that is then beaten 20l, another you’re not so confident about but which hoses in because the short priced fav was ‘sick’. As a keen punter, there are enough non-runners every day to contend with that alter the whole ‘aspect’ of a race, and never mind the layers giving the odds. Perhaps moving back to 24 hour decs on the flat may help cut down the non-runners or ‘sick’ horses.
Hopefully it won’t affect Ireland — perhaps the Irish authorities will add on some extra meetings, although British horses won’t be able to run. With their large fields in mdns, mdn hdls and beg chases, they might come up with something. They need some more AW tracks there as well.
It’s not that uncommon for colts to run in the juvenile hurdle ranks (3yo + 4yo) — however, it’s much rarer for 5yo and upwards entires to run in Nov Hurdles etc. Sir Erec is rated 105 on the flat so possibly connections are looking to a future stallion career and wouldn’t surprise me if he runs in 14f+ group races in the British Isles.
This site is quite good for UK + ROI.
For the draw in UK + ROI.
http://horseracingtowinners.blogspot.com/2009/03/draw-adv-ireland-courtesy-david-renham.html
Have you thought about contacting them ? — I used to subscribe years ago and remember being sent the weekly results and then buying the final Annual if I so wished. They may well have a copy of 2004 (2003 Results) and could check for you.
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As far as I’ve noticed, entire males are a rarity running in British Isles NH racing and being gelded keeps them on the ‘straight and narrow’. Midnight Legend and Moonax were sires who ran on the flat and jumps and there are surely others. This seems to be more prevalent in France with Kap Rock, Kapgarde & Dom Alco coming to mind and I’m sure there are plenty other French jumpers who became sires.
