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If you bet hundreds of times a year, you should be taking value (betting a horse that’s bigger than it should be), not looking for ‘the winner’. Every betting book worth it’s paper will tell you that.
If you’re a recreational punter that only punts a tenner at the weekend on an acca, that’s people ‘looking for the winner’ 99 times out of 100.
The second may win in the short term, but the first will always win in the long-term if he’s any good at it.I don’t agree with the post regarding ‘if the horse is too short so put it in a double instead’ – if it’s too short it’s too short. But then that is where the recreational punter vs controlled long-term view comes in, most people betting with a structure won’t even play doubles and trebles.
The problem people have with long-term punting is patience and discipline. They can’t handle having 10 losers to 1 winner even if that 16s shot has them ahead, so they look for the winner every race.
One of the best Golf judges on the planet is doing his absolute brains at the moment as he didn’t keep disciplined with stakes etc. Unfortunately due to this he’s given his amazing results last year back and potentially some more.
Even though Tiger Roll is 3s and you think he will win, you will get a higher payout if you back another horse at 20s e/w and it places. It’s not always about picking out the winner of the race, for all that mentally picking the winner of the race is nice.
Different strokes for different folks is basically what this all comes down to.
Even though Tiger Roll is 3s and you think he will win, you will get a higher payout if you back another horse at 20s e/w and it places.
Exactly. There is more “hidden” value in an EW shot than picking a winner. Tiger Roll has to beat 39 horses otherwise the bet is lot, whereas the 20/1 shot only has to beat 35 horses to put you in the profit zone.
I’ve noticed a lot of EW value at some northern tracks (especially Ayr and Musselburgh or even Newcastle). For instance in an 8-runner novice hurdle where the first three horses in the market trade at roughly 100%, you still might find one or two dark ones at 100/1 and above that might snatch 3rd place.
Two EW bets on 100/1 shots equals 4 bets where you’ll always get at least 5 times your stake, if one of your choices can place. Plus you have the bonus of the other one getting placed as well or even winning the race.thats the beauty of this game, differing views and how we work
GL to you all and hope you find the value(did i really just say that?)
What does “will win” mean?
Thinking Tiger Roll “will win” in value terms does not make sense… And we are talking in value terms here.
If a punter thinks a horse has a fair 3/1 chance then that punter is believing it has only a quarter chance of winning and a three quarter chance of losing.
How can a punter believing a horse three times as likely to lose than win also believe it “will win”?
If a punter does not back against one horse he thinks is a fair 3/1 chance, then what if there are two horses believing both fair 7/1 chances. 2 X 7/1 = 3/1 combined price. If not able to get value on these two horses does he not back anything else because one of the two “will win”?
…Or what if there is four horses thought of as 15/1 shots in a field? 4 X 15/1 = 3/1. Does he not back anything else because one of the four “will win”?
Thinking a horse “will win” does not come in to “value betting”. Although as Mike says – except for big win types – anyone making an overall profit has found value even if not searching for it.
I myself very rarely bet in races where there’s an odds-on shot. Not because there is no value in the race, but because I am personally not very good at identifying value odds-on shots… And therefore if getting odds-on chances wrong am also bad at identifying value on other bigger prices where there’s an odds-on shot in the race. Is that what you mean, nwalton – but with 3/1 shots instead of odds-on?
Value Is EverythingEven though Tiger Roll is 3s and you think he will win, you will get a higher payout if you back another horse at 20s e/w and it places.
It is important to remember:
If putting 100 on a 3/1 shot it returns 400 with 300 profit.
If putting the same overall amount on a 20/1 shot needs to half the stake on the win (2 X 50 = 100 stake).
So if a horse places 50 X 20 = 1000 ‘/, 4 = 250 + 50 (place part of stake) = 300 returned = 200 profit.Value Is EverythingIMO EW is the best in the long term. I kept a record of all my EW wagers at 5/1 and up only in 2018:– There were 32 winners from 219 (14.68%) LSt + 94.35 (BOG) — + 22.71 (SP)
On the place section there were 96 placed from 219 (43.84%) LSt + 45.32 (BOG) — + 5.41 (SP)
It might be said why not just have 1 point WO instead of ½ point EW…..in my case it’s the confidence/psychological factor. 10 of those 32 winners were 10/1 and better returning 134 points (excl stake) which I may not have backed WO. I’m seriously thinking of raising my price limit to 10/1 and staying EW. One thing I do know, you cannot win long term SP as all the previous posters will agree.
2019 to date is modest compared to last year still 5/1 and up:–
6 winners from 87 (6.9%) LSt -19.70 (BOG) — -44.50 (SP)28 placed from 87 (32.18%) LSt +15.01 (BOG) — -14.80 (SP)
Those place figs were skewed by a 66/1¼ finishing second but every little helps.
Anyway there’s a long way to go this year and I’m confident I’ll turn it round.Will win is what i think before the race, thats the way i back/work and as said it works for me, obviously not for you.
i believe it will win because i do many hours in the form book, do i get it wrong of course i do many times. You can bang on all you want GT but i know what works for me and what dont. I could not work the way you do but obviously that works for you.
Will win is what i think before the race, thats the way i back/work and as said it works for me, obviously not for you.
i believe it will win because i do many hours in the form book,
You still have not said what “will win” actually means to you, nwalton.
Do you mean that “before the race” it’s the horse you believe has the best chance of winning of all the horses in the race?
Or “before the race” it’s a horse with a better chance of winning than losing (which logically has to be one you believe should be an odds-on shot)?
Or some other definition? Value Is EverythingGood post Dahlia, i’m the same with regards to e/w.
The mentality you need to have to bet win only, especially when betting in big field handicaps, is a very strong one. The argument of backing 3-4 rather than 2 e/w is an interesting one but i prefer the e/w method myself, you could have 3 of the 4 placed and do your brains when betting WO.
I’ve done some playing about with my numbers to see how i’d fair going WO compared to EW, quite interesting to look at IMO.
Ginger give up the word games you know what I mean you are just yet again having a dig.Maybe it’s a jealousy thing on my part, I will leave it there and let you believe that I am punting wrong
Interesting topic this and as I have said before there are many ways of skinning a cat.
People can be ‘getting value’ without looking for it.
I mean that some people have a knack for singling out they type of horse I think NWalton is driving at, a horse they strongly feel ‘will win’. Certain bettors are good at identifying these in various ways but don’t really explicitly look for ‘value’ as a concept.
Hunches are normally based on information in the subconscious that is informing you and enough studying and backing over the years and, I reckon, people develop, sometimes unknowingly, a ‘feel’ or intuitive knack for identifying value without realizing that this is what they are doing.
So, if I am reading NWalton’s gist correctly, looking for ‘winners’ and not really explicitly evaluating ‘value’ consciously CAN be a route to finding profit.
In the end, any profitable bettor, is, by default, obtaining value, but there are many routes to finding it. Anyone preaching one method only is wide of the mark in my view.thank christ someone has put it into words(on screen) they way I tried to. Never been my strong point English/gramma.
Thank you Cormacknwalton,
As I’ve already said in this thread:
“except for big win types – anyone making an overall profit has found value even if not searching for it”.Am not criticising your way of doing things, if you are making a profit then all’s well and good.
But it is you who started a topic about “is it value”?So from your reaction from David’s intervention you do now mean “will win” as the horse with the best chance of winning and not a horse with a better chance of winning than losing. So a horse that you say “will win” actually can have a much greater chance of losing than winning… which confused me on what you meant – hence my questions.
What I am saying is your way of betting does not fit in to the question “is it value?” because you are not looking for value.
Just trying to answer the question you yourself asked and explain the logic of value betting. No need to be so aggressive.
Value Is Everythingi get annoyed when people know what someone means but just acts the goat. Amazing you try to take moral high ground about me supposedly getting aggressive(only ever got aggressive while in the boxing ring) when you come out with laughable comments stating i am jealous of your punting prowess.
When i say will win it means have an opinion about the race, nothing wrong with having a strong opinion about a race.
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