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nevertheless the losses are to BFSP not SP, hence the fav/longshot bias should be negiligible and the odds should approximate to ‘true’ chance across the whole range i.e percentage loss should be more or less constant whatever the price range sampled, all things being equal on a level playing field
Am I missing the point here?
The point is being made by looking at a Level Stakes Profit, i.e. putting a notional £1 bet on every runner. That statistic gives enormous emphasis to high priced winners, and as I said, the low priced ones are the ones that are expected to do well. Is the complaint that he doesn’t have many 100/1 winners?
In the case of some other trainers the media wax lyrical because they "tell it like it is" and say when their horse has a good chance, or conversely a poor chance. Paul Nichols did that the other day on the Morning Line. The horse he said was unlikely to win drifted, and didn’t win.
The very fact that Ferdy has few high priced winners shows that there are no hidden agendas, plot jobs, or betting coups. The horses are sent out to win their races, I don’t think it’s a secret when they are in with a chance, hence the odds are shorter.
or the major difference in riding tactics.
Since most FM runners are ridden by G Lee, and he favours a hold up style I don’t understand this comment.
Those figures are not astonishing at all.
The odds represent the market view of the chance of the horse winning.
It is simply because the outsiders have less chance that they are outsiders, and surprise surprise, less of them win.
The posters above are trying to make the stats fit their own aregument, and it is total nonsense. All trainers have a higher strike rate with their lower odds winners.
If you are looking for indications of cheating, look for a triner or jockey or owner that consistently gets HIGH PRICED winners.
On the subject of Stewards, there is always a professional "stipendary" steward at every meeting. He or she is the professional, and is expected to be the rules expert. The amateur stewards make the subective judgements.
