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Hi Matt,
I’ll try not to convolute the message too much.
Specifically on the trip scenario (good question btw) the first thing I’d do is look at the basic pedigree side of things.
I’m assuming you read the recent form of a horse somewhere?
If you go on to the racing post website (laptop preferably but information available on app etc) you can view the past form of the sire, dam and dam-sire.For example when Australia won the Derby a few years back he went into the race stepping up from 8 furlongs to 12f. It was widely accepted that he absolutely would stay as his sire was a derby winner and dam was an Oaks victor.
It isn’t always as easy as that though. There was a lot of debate the year Golden Horn won the Derby as to whether he would stay as the pedigree wasn’t exactly suggesting he would but from watching him and the way he won the Dante Derby trial it made sense that he would.
Also if you look at the dam you can see the others she has foaled and get a sense of what trip one might want, especially if having a full brother/sister (same sire)
Anyway, there’s a lot more that could be said on the matter but my lunch break is over (actually it was 10 minutes ago
)Stewards. Won’t be overturned though…..unless they’ve brought in some Premier league VAR officials.
Couldn’t decide between the three of Riffy, Illi and Amiloc so have done the sensible thing for once and will just enjoy the race. Obviously when one of them wins I’ll have some form of gamblers regret eating away at me.
I’d have liked Eve’s opinion on the ground suitability for Zavateri but suckered myself in anyway for a play. The form has been cooking with Morris Dancer smashing A Bit Of Spirit next time, he himself then winning the Solario.
11/2Should have left alone but tempted in by Two Stars profile. More rain the better. 15/2 was just on the edge of an acceptable price for the jump in grade.
Can’t be sure he’ll stay but Jagged Edge 12/1 after winning the Irish Cambridgeshire is hard to ignore. Trouble in running too through the jockey losing his irons.
Tuco Salamanca progressive, handles conditions. 7/1 fair game. Carla Ridge looks a decent price at 18/1, been running well at group level.
It’s a trend of sorts I suppose, although participation in the history of this race from any horse over the age of six is basically non-existent.
Cirrus Des Aigles ran as a 9 year old and came into the race in no form and Lord Admiral ran twice at 7 and 8 when basically a no-hoper.Leopardstown
350 – Convergent
530 – Anmaat NAP
640 – OnemoredanceRes:
Don
300 – Ten Bob Tony
340 – Carmers
Leo
455 – JohanChris Hayes to win his first Irish Champion Stakes on the son of Awtaad, who he rode to classic glory back in the day. Thoroughly likeable hoss, group 1 consistent, turn of foot on softer ground can be key.
ANMAAT 4/1
I like Emma Lavelle, she showed me round her yard a few weeks back and let me take a selfie with Paisley Park. Anyway, she’s had a good flat season by her standards and Chilli Queen has been a highlight. Beat Crepe Suzette on her last outing who has subsequently finished a close 2nd in a listed race and ran well in the group 2 earlier today. 63 days off is my slight concern as I don’t know if that was intentional etc.
7/1
Northern Champion. 1 run, 1 win, 2nd won next time at Ascot. Fair game, 2 year olds, predictably unpredictable.
13/2Duraji ran well at Glorious Goodwood behind Sam Hawkens. This race looks an easier assignment to go closer or perhaps do a win. 6/1
I was torn between Almaqam and Map Of Stars but have plumped for the latter only at 11/2. Been crying out for this trip, hopefully finds a new level.
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