[carlisle]

Hi nipz

yes I can put it all on a CD for you… because it’s going to be a lot of data to send. I produce my own speed ratings, so this means my computer programs rely on having loads of data stored away. Let the PC do the work that’s my moto.

byefrom
carlisle

[carlisle]

Hi beegeegee

you will find this info on the http://www.racingpost.co.uk
(you can join for £1 for 1 month then cancel)

there’s a sample of the data for AYR…

FLAT RECORDS
DISTANCE RECORD HOLDER COURSE RECORD RP STANDARD
5f Boogie Street (2yo) (18Sep03) 56.98s 57.70s
5f Look Busy (IRE) (21Jun08) 55.68s 57.70s
6f Sir Bert (2yo) (17Sep69) 1m 9.73s 1m 10.30s
6f Maison Dieu (21Jun08) 1m 8.37s 1m 10.30s
7f Jazeel (2yo) (16Sep93) 1m 25.71s
7f Sir Arthur Hobbs (19Jun92) 1m 24.97s
7f50y Tafaahum (USA) (2yo) (19Sep03) 1m 28.99s 1m 28.20s
7f50y Ginger Jack (30May12) 1m 28.07s 1m 28.20s
1m Kribensis (2yo) (17Sep86) 1m 39.21s 1m 38.70s
1m Sufi (16Sep59) 1m 36.00s 1m 38.70s
1m1f20y Retirement (19Sep03) 1m 50.30s 1m 52.00s
1m2f Endless Hall (17Jul00) 2m 4.02s 2m 6.00s
1m2f192y Azzaam (18Sep91) 2m 13.31s 2m 17.50s
1m5f13y Eden’s Close (18Sep93) 2m 45.81s 2m 47.00s
1m7f Romany Rye (19Sep91) 3m 13.16s 3m 15.00s
2m1f105y Curry (16Sep55) 3m 45.00s 3m 49.00s
2m4f90y Charles Stuart (08Jul83) 4m 33.86s 4m 31.00s

JUMP RECORDS
DISTANCE RECORD HOLDER COURSE RECORD RP STANDARD
2m(C)(12) Clay County (12Oct91) 3m 38.60s 3m 43.00s
2m(H)(9) Secret Ballot (19Apr80) 3m 27.40s 3m 39.00s
2m4f(C)(17) Chandigar (15May72) 4m 44.10s 4m 48.00s
2m4f(H)(11) Moss Royal (19Apr74) 4m 35.00s 4m 39.00s
2m5f(C)(18) Even Flo (20May01) 5m 17.20s 5m 6.00s
2m5f110y(C)(18) Star To The North (09May01) 5m 10.20s 5m 10.00s
2m5f110y(H)(12) Cucumber Run (21Apr12) 5m 4.70s 5m 4.00s
2m6f(H)(12) Any Second (19Apr80) 5m 6.80s 5m 10.00s
3m110y(H)(12) Nautical Lad (06Apr64) 5m 42.00s 5m 45.00s
3m1f(C)(19) Top ´N´ Tale (12May82) 5m 57.70s 6m 2.00s
3m2f110y(H)(14) Meditator (18Apr97) 6m 26.90s 6m 17.00s
3m3f110y(C)(21) Joacci (15Apr05) 6m 50.20s 6m 43.00s
3m5f(C)(24) Prime Example (IRE) (07Dec98) 8m 24.30s 7m 5.00s
4m110y(C)(27) Hot Weld (21Apr07) 7m 55.10s 8m 2.00s
4m1f(C)(27) Young Ash Leaf (17Apr71) 8m 0.40s 8m 7.00s

bye from
carlisle (always willing to help….yes )

[carlisle]

Hi % Man

I agree that "Trends Analysis" is just another tool. Your idea about studying trainers is a good one. Lets see if we can at least settle on ONE trainer to get our teeth into.

Mention a few… and I select ONE from your menu.

cheers from
carlisle

[carlisle]

http://www.onlineracingreview.com/welsh … rends.html

http://horse-racing.ie/welsh-grand-nati … 10-trends/

[carlisle]

Hi Gingertipster

As for "Trends Analysis" in general, the big races (which are run on the same course & similar going) represents the same TEST year after year. If there are strong patterns within the race this can only be an asset to narrowing down the contenders.

Anyone interested in brainstorming a new/original
approach to Trends…….
I suggest we use "The Welsh National" as a starting point.

byefrom
carlisle

[carlisle]

Hi Cormack

YEAH… I’m still a believer, but i don’t expect miracles. Trends analysis must be use to indicate the most/least favoured horses in the race. I edge forward in my seat when numerous form study methods seem to point at only one or two selections. (I like Solidus, VDW, watching races, Trends and Pro-Punter)

The link you posted is very interesting, and this supports my opinion that …"worthwhile Trend Analysis is a multi-layered and very complicated process"

This is why the "Trends" tipsters …rarely pick winners, their logic & methods are too simple.

I would like to pursue this… in the research section.

byefrom
carlisle

[carlisle]

Hi Blueshark

I might be able to help you… (manually inputting data is not the best use of your time) I’d like to know more about your approach to horse racing analysis.

We may have some common ground.

byefrom
carlisle

[carlisle]

Hi aji

Hmmm well…
Speed Ratings measure a horse’s performance against the clock.
The following elements are required to produce the rating.

eg (+12.65) see racing post

2. Going Correction. This figure adjusts the average
up or down if the ground is Firm or Soft.

3. Next a formula is used to produced the actual Speed Rating.
which is then adjust to 10 stone (Flat) 12 stone (Jumps)

This is just a rough explaination, but i hope it helps.

byefrom
carlisle

[carlisle]

Hi gang

I have recently joined forces with a mate from my local bookies. (we share a similar general view… regarding betting, and our two heads are working well and also keeping us focused)

Jimmy, my mate, swears by Mark Nelsons Time Test ratings.
The top 3 figures have been producing some big priced winners>>> Gaily Noble 20-1 Gleaming Spirit 20-1 and many more.
Personally I am a Solidus fan.

I would like to hear from any other Time Test users, with a view to finding out his speed rating formula. Eventually aiming to write some computer code that will produce these ratings automatically on a,more complete, daily basis.

byefrom
carlisle

[carlisle]

Brighton
14 May 09

1st 3Len

Harlequinn Danseur

(IRE) 7/1 4 7-13over weight7 N B King 52 5 57 — »
b g Noverre (USA) – Nassma (IRE) (Sadler’s Wells) Amy Baker5

In touch in rear, hard ridden over 2f out, went 3rd over 1f out, stayed on to lead final 50yds (op 9-1 tchd 10-1)

[carlisle]

Hi tenbob

thanks for the reply… manual inputs must be reduced to a minimum
The Pro-Punter data template looks something like this>>>>>

"ASCOT","1-30","24/08/09","","FLAT","HEAVY","YES",1000,5,2
0,"NONE","NO","NO","NO","J GOLDIE",""
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
"3"
"3"
"3"
"3"
"3"
"3"
"3"
"3"
"3"
"1"
"2"
"3"
"4"
"5"
"6"
"7"
"8"
"9"
"1","1","1","FIRSTHORSE","TRAINONE",3,9,0,0,"JOCKONE"
0,1,11,11,11,11,11,11,6,21
5,8,0,5000,-1,10000,3,"NO","NO"
"NO","NO",0,0,"",111,101,1
"1/1",0
""
""
""
""
""
""
3,3,6,""
3,3,6,""
3,3,6,""
"2","2","2","SECONDHORSE","TRAINTWO",3,9,0,0,"JOCKTWO"
0,2,22,22,22,22,22,22,3,21
5,8,0,5000,-1,10000,3,"NO","NO"
"NO","NO",0,0,"",122,102,2
"2",0
""
""
""
""
""
""
6,8,7,""
6,8,7,""
6,8,7,""
[/color:11h7endj]

So populating this with the required data isn’t too difficult. I have access to most of the variables. I used to run a piece of Visual Basic code to capture some of the less obvious data from the net. Frustratingly I don’t remember the exact code….. now….. Hai!!!!!

Any VB programmers out there? who could help little old me…

byefrom
carlisle

[carlisle]

Hi Caledon,

as far as making a living from betting…"I am ALL IN".

I don’t have a "real" job, so horse racing is my full-time occupation.

Completely confident that i can eventually make Big sustainable profits. I consider this outcome to be a gradually evolving process.

Just like you i have been "away" from betting… i also know exacting what you mean by "a dwindling bank balance".

I look forward to discussing some future races.

byefrom
Gary

[carlisle]

Hi Andrew

i am still trying to update my Solidus "production". I would be surprised if Look Busy wasn’t top on "clock figures".

Which going corrections / standard times are you using? (btw)

cya from
Gary

[carlisle]

Well done

you might consider a Betfred Lucky 15 next time, it would have returned
£644.67 (with the insurance of TREBLE the odds one winner)

byefrom
Gary

ps. please the tips flowing

[carlisle]

Hi there

yeah… i try to save the "at a glance" pages. I can go back as far as April last year. I have a few "

annoying

" gaps though

byefrom
Gary

[carlisle]

Hi Formath

i am going to give the VDW another go. I need to make some money
This method should produce some "bread & butter" wages. (50-100 level stakes profit a year)

Going to dust off my "dutchman inspired" spreadsheet, and take it nice and steady. Yeah… and i am pretty much an open-minded sort of a chap.

mmm… REALLY

Just got hold of "The Golden Years… " book. (Well it looks like a good read?)

byefrom
Gary

[carlisle]

Hi gang

YEAH… sellers could be a good area to speacialise in. There seems to be quite a few successful gambles in these races. It makes sense to keep your horses ability under wraps… then try to beat very poor position.

The big question is "which trainers do well in sellers?" &
"do they pull off gambling coups?"

(okay it’s a double-barrelled question… )

byefrom
carlisle

ps "i will look into it… )

[Author]

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