[carlisle]

Hi Artemis

I have just run a Raceform Query for 6/4’s that ran during 2005, with the following results.

120wins  from   317runs    37.9%   (- 17.00)

I know that SP’s are a good indicator.

However, I am not talking about SP’s.

Accurately calculating ones own prices is time consuming and difficult, but I feel it must be done.  Without them you cannot assess risk.

I realise it’s not for everyone.

byefornow

(Edited by carlisle at 6:35 pm on Oct. 12, 2006)

[carlisle]

Hi davidbrady

I agree.

However my idea is that I am questioning the validity in giving every runner a price.  I feel compelled to do so, just like the bookies.   (for different reasons though)

There could be a sort of a probability tipping point.  The 5% is not able to compete with the top 3, and therefore it should be devalued.

This idea might be rubbish or not.

Who knows for sure?  I wish I did.

Research anyone……

byefrom<br>EC<br>

(Edited by carlisle at 3:31 pm on Oct. 12, 2006)

[carlisle]

"I confess I am EC………….!"

<br>

[carlisle]

Hi Artemis

I warned you about that hole.

Any free thinkers out there, willing to work a bit and stretch their minds.

Imagine if the answer was less than 1%.

byefrom<br>carlisle

(Edited by carlisle at 2:48 pm on Oct. 12, 2006)

[carlisle]

Hi

the more I think about ridgid systems the more fragile they seem.

It’s more important to concentrate on the right races.<br>Then do some analysis.

I would like to hear from another who calculates their own prices.   (I do this in a limited way)

Typically I might come up with the following.<br>=================================

6/5       45%<br>3/1       25%<br>9/2       18%<br>16/1       5%<br>22/1       4%<br>50/1       2%<br>100/1     1%

If 100 similar races were run, would the bottam 4 get any victories?  (without the aid of flying carrier bags etc)

byefrom<br>carlisle

<br>"you can’t beat a hobbyist,………pity"<br>

(Edited by carlisle at 9:41 am on Dec. 25, 2006)

[carlisle]

Hi FlatseasonLover

thanks for your reply.

You know when you start off with an idea and then it<br>develops and changes.  Helped by exploring things in an logical, reasoned manner.  Well I have put forward this theory about certain horses not even deserving a price.

A Bit radical I know.

It would be good to hear an intelligent contribution.

byefrom<br>carlisle<br>

[carlisle]

Horse Racing!

[carlisle]

Hi Artemis

41% you want to move your feet a bit you will get pins & needles, and mind that hole.

byefrom<br>carlisle<br>

(Edited by carlisle at 11:43 am on Oct. 11, 2006)

[carlisle]

Hi dave jay

oh no I do listen and do like a good grope.

What does EC mean.

I try to produce my own odds, and in doing so I feel that a lot of  horses don’t desrve a price.

Adding up all the scores and dividing the individual score by this number, must be a flawed method…..

A 6/4 chance is not worth backing unless it seems to have a 60%+ chance of winning.  The rest of the runners have to divide up the remaining 40%. Esstential they should not be able to dent the the top rated horse.

I am very interested in friendly discussions.

byefrom<br>carlisle<br>

(Edited by carlisle at 8:14 pm on Dec. 21, 2006)

[carlisle]

Hi dave jay

thanks for the bucket of cold water.

However it’s only served to refresh me!

Bookies have numerous weaknesses.

A moving disguised target is very difficult to hit.

byefrom<br>carlisle<br>

(Edited by carlisle at 10:31 pm on Oct. 10, 2006)

[carlisle]

Hi Rory

I dislike you already.

It’s clear to me that we have a differing understanding of the word "contenders".

In most maiden races I would consider nearly all the runners as contenders.

The form tends to be moderate, and any selection will be very vunerable to improvers and debutants.

byefrom<br>carlisle

[carlisle]

Hi Shadow Leader

I don’t mean morning prices.

I think that in some races there are say 2 or 3 live contenders.<br>Yet bookies can compelled to give every horse a price.

Is there such a thing as a horse with a genuine 16/1 chance of winner?

Only if the other horses are similarly priced.

byefrom<br>carlisle

<br>(Edited by carlisle at 12:52 pm on Oct. 10, 2006)<br>

(Edited by carlisle at 12:53 pm on Oct. 10, 2006)

[carlisle]

Hi there

Which horse’s did they miss out last week?

byefrom<br>carlisle

(Edited by carlisle at 8:34 am on Oct. 10, 2006)

[carlisle]

Hi

Bookmakers have to price up every horse in every race.

"Well, what’s wrong with that?"

I wonder……..is there an edge to be exploited.

[carlisle]

Hi Artemis

do you know which bookmakers offer treble odds for one winner?

byefrom<br>carlisle<br>

[carlisle]

Hi

I like the one about 1/5Fav 10/1 bar one e.w. bets.

Bookies would hate these bets, and the 1/5Fav MUST be opposed any way.  It’s a no brainer!

Even 5/1 bar one in some cases can be a bet to nothing.<br>Each ways are a good source of value bets.  However, I think punters have too many thriftless e.w’s.

I say you must be confident it will be placed not hopeful, otherwise you will lose twice as much.

With this confidence 5/2 horse can be backed £10 ew,<br>thus only risking £5 for a chance of £30.

I agree that the search for value prices is another vital tactic.

byefrom<br>carlisle

[carlisle]

Hi there

Professional gamblers obviously come in numerous variations.  (born of experiences and personality)

Yet there are underlying constants that apply.

1. Full time commitment. (That begs the ? how many hours per week.)

any more suggestions.

byefrom<br>carlisle<br>

[Author]

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