Elementary VDW Subject to Other Considerations

[Formath]

Having followed the Van der Wheil saga since it began in 1978 IMO the basic principles of following well backed, consistent runners still holds merit.

System
1. Only class 3 or higher races to be considered, where there is winning form in the field.
2. All the short-odds division runners of restricted races are assessed and the 3 highest rated are shortlisted.

Suggested Betting Plans
1. Support all 3 where practicable to level stakes.
2. For simplicity, where the shortest possible is Odds-on No Bet. Where the shortest odds are Evens back just that one. Longer than Evens – 2/1 support the top 2. Shortest 85/40 or longer support all 3.
3. Alternatively bet to return 100 points on 1, 2 or 3 to a maximum of 70%.

Sedgefield 2.20 Nov 11 in order of merit. (Odds shown are from Betfair).

Programme Girl 9/2, stake 19pts
Theatre Belle 4/1, stake 20pts
Gunner Jack 6/1, stake15pts
Lost = -54 pts

Exter Nov 11
2.40 Quickbeam 10/3, Spare Cash 6/1, Nevada Royale 4/5 (No Bet)(Won 8/13)
3.10 Chapoturgeon 4/9 (No Bet), I Hear A Symphony 9/4 (Won 10/3)

[Formath]

Bangor 2.00
Aleron 7/1, 13 pts
Alright Now M’Lad 5/1, 17pts
Nenuphar Colloges 4/1, 20pts (10/3 WON +86pts -50pts = +36pts)[/color:ovlslix1]

Kempton
2.15
Duc De Regniere 7/4, 37pts (5/2 WON +129pts -72pts = +57pts)[/color:ovlslix1]
Ringaroses 6/1, 15pts
Nakai 4/1, 20pts

2.50 I’msinging The Blues 4/5 (No Bet) (Lost)[/color:ovlslix1]

[Formath]

Will The Till 10/1, stake 10pts
Loch Vic 12/1, 8pts (Non runner)[/color:nap1qrke]
Saunders Road 9/2, 19pts
Lost -29pts[/color:nap1qrke]

Just for interest, I considered putting up the Lingfield 2.50, but decided to stick with the jumps and that’s how it goes:

Suzi Spends 9/4, 31 pts (WON 5/2 +108 – 58 = +50)
Jadara 5/2, 27 pts
Rio Guru 5/1[/color:nap1qrke]

[Formath]

1.50 (IMO this race represents a G Hall ‘key’ race, which is interesting)
Golan Way 8/1, stake 12pts (WON 8/1 +108 -53 = +55pts)[/color:1a2mfl66]
Leo’s Lucky Star 3/1, 25pts
Over Sixty 11/2, 16pts
American Trilogy 5/4, —

3.00
Oh Jackie 25/1, 4pts
Garde Champetre 9/4, 31pts
L’Ami 3/1, 25pts
(Lost -60pts)[/color:1a2mfl66]

4.05
Herecomesthetruth 11/10, 48pts
(Lost -48pts)[/color:1a2mfl66]

[Formath]

This is my last post on this thread so to go out on a high note here are 3 G Hall ‘key’ races IMO:

1.25
West End Rocker 11/4, stake 27pts
Ballyfitz 7/2, 23pts (WON 4/1 +115pts – 50 = +65pts)[/color:2fox0zgu]
Big Fella Thanks 5/4,—

2.35
Barbers Shop 13/2, 14pts
Ouzbeck 14/1, 7pts
Silverburn 7/2, 23pts
(Lost -44pts)[/color:2fox0zgu]

3.10
Kirbybroguelantern 9/1, 10pts
Sullumo 6/1, 15pts
Valerius 9/1, 10pts
(Lost -35pts)[/color:2fox0zgu]

[Larry]

Hiya Formath
why are you giving up this thread, a VDW thread with selctions &no arguments thats a 1st well best of luck with these, & good luck with your future ventures, you along with a couple of others on the net are somebody whose posts i look forward to reading
all the best
Larry

[Larry]

Not only giving selections but also showing good strike rate & using BOG/Betfair showing a profit
keep up the good work
all the best
Larry

[Formath]

Larry,
Thank you for your kind remarks.
It seem to me threads generate more interest when they are controversial. With this, it was just that I read another thread inquiring whether VDW principles are still relevant. I was just hoping to show that higher class, consistency and the short half of the market are indeed relevant, nothing more than that.

[Francis]

Formath
Where are Mtoto, JIB, GJ, Johnb etc posting these days?
Any idea?
Regards

[Formath]

Francis,

I have no idea as I was never part of the ‘VDW circus’.

Several G Hall ‘key’ races today IMO – Diamond Harry and Walkon plus Donc 2.50 Junior, On Raglan Road, Gullible Gordon

[Red Rum]

Francis you have mail

[arkle55]

deleted

[Francis]

Much obliged boys.

[GeorgeJ]

Formath

"I have no idea as I was never part of the ‘VDW circus."

Surely you wrote one of the booklets on VDW published by Tony Peach? If so, doesn’t that make you one of the principal performers?

[Formath]

George J

You are correct generally, but my interpretation of the VDW correspondence differs from many of the most ardent of his followers. This puts me at odds with them so I don’t join their debate regarding how trainers place their charges, for example.

[cormack15]

Good to see a thread focusing on the application of VDW in practice rather than the theoretical aspects, which are fine too but which do tend to dominate.

[GeorgeJ]

Formath

Cheers.

I think the biggest problem with VDW is the tendency of those who haven’t studied it at all (judging by their comments) to offer trenchant comments about it – still, in many areas of life the ignorant are not slow in sounding off. On here, on the thread started by Mtoto, it seemed to be principally those who have given up trying to find winners and instead look for something called "value" (which of course exists, but not in the way most value-hunters misguidedly believe – "true" odds and all that rubbish).

[Author]

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