- This topic has 32 replies, 12 voices, and was last updated 17 years ago by
.
- Posts
George J Wrote
I
think the biggest problem with VDW is the tendency of those who haven’t studied it at all (judging by their comments) to offer trenchant comments about it
I have to agree with this statement. Like many others I had long been alternately beguiled and frustrated while trying to understand what VDW was putting across. What changed my approach were contributions posted on the thread started by Mtoto. Lee and Crock, among others, made me realise that in order to gain any insight it would be necessary to obtain some of the relevant form books. Up to that point I had (naively) been labouring under the misapprehension that I would eventually gain understanding merely by reading the VDW literature over and over!
Over the last six months I have obtained a fair few of the old form books and I have done a fair amount of research on the horses VDW mentions. Now I am not going to start claiming to have discovered any “missing link” but I do understand more clearly why VDW was so emphatic about some of his selections.
Nothing I ever post attracts as much feedback as the VDW methodology, so I amended the title and will go over some old ground – again! There must be some novice punters out there who have not heard of Che Van der Wheil
Leaving out all the dross timescale is important when considering the ‘elementary mechanical procedure’ detailed in the correspondence to the Sporting Chronicle, 1978 & 1979 (for applying to jump racing):
6 Apr 78. It is not a system, but one of many ways to narrow the field. I suggest that two factors can be coupled together to leave three horses for consideration. This can be very illuminating and show, SUBJECT TO OTHER CONSIDERATIONS, the good betting propositions
Consider the first 5 in the betting forecast in non-hcap races and the first 6 in hcaps.
Add the last 3 places of the respective horses in the betting forecast , we have a numerical picture. A high percentage of winners comes from the 3 lowest figures.
Leave out sellers and novice hcaps.
21 Aug 1979. Although the elementary procedure can be used to effect on any race concentrating on better class race provides a fuller understanding. Relatively consistent horses can be found in any race, but GOOD consistent horses are usually found only in better events.
Another of the many ways to reduce the field, which can be used in conjunction with the previous method given is as follows. The combination of the two usually isolates the probables.
1. From the last 2 placings of each horse mark all those with form figures 1 – 4.
2. Select in days the the 5 most recent runs.
3. Select from above the 3 most consistent by adding together the last 3 placings of the respective horses.Kempton
2.05
Au Courant, chased drew clear eased, Lei, 20f won 1/4
Itsa Legend, tracked mistake ridden rallied, Tau 23f, won 1/4
LODGE LANE, tracked led 13th hit next led clear, Exe, 24f, 1/8
Or Jaune (Won 11/1), held up headway ridden held mistake, Fon, 22f, 3/7 -7L
3.15
Bonchester Bridge, up 2, chased ridden, Tau, 17f, 6/ -33L
PICOT DE SAY, up 9, held up headway chased one paced, Lud, 16f, 2/10 -3.5L
Farmers Lad, down 3, ridden headway no chance, 21f, 3/12 -17L
3.50
Nemetan, up 9, chased ridden chased winner beaten fell, Exe, 21f, 17 ran
POP AHEAD (Won 11/4), down 6, held up headway challenged stayed on, 23f, won
Just Jaffa, up 8, weakened 3 out, Mkt, 20f, 5/8 -26?2.30 (nov hdle 24.5f on soft to heavy)
INCHDALY ROCK (WON 1/3), tracked leader hung every chance hit 2nd out ridden stayed on same pace, Chp, 20f, 2/9 -3L, heavy
Joker’s Legacy, mid division headway led blundered headed eased weakened, Nwb, 19f, 5/16 -11L, soft
One Cool Knight, mid division slipped up at 5th, Flk, 22f, 0/12, soft3.30 (hcap chse 19f on soft to heavy)
CONSILIGIERE (WON 7/2), up 8, held up hampered led mistake ridden kept on WON, Tow, 19f, 1/5 +2L, soft
Katess, up 7, mid division headway ridden chased no impression, Exe, 19f, 3/8 -12L, soft
The Randy Bishop, up 3, keen held up headway led last ridden kept on WON, Mkt, 18f, 1/9 +1.5L, softMy intention was to consider the Leicester 3.20 so these two races at Newcastle are very much potboilers and probably best ignored IMO – depends on your temperament
1.20 (nov hdle over 16f on soft to heavy)
DREVER ROUTE, held up effort soon outpaced, Nwc 16f, 4/12 -4.5L, soft
Ockey De Neulliac, held up headway ridden weakened, Hay 20f, 6/13 -46L, soft
Mighty Moon (WON 7/2), held up headway one pace, Dnc 16f, 4/11 -16L, soft
SIRKEEL, with leaders challenging kept on every chance until edged left no extra, Ayr 20f, 2/11 -2.5L, soft1.55 (nov hdle over 16f on soft to heavy)
WHISKY MAGIC, led made rest hit 6 clear stayed on well WON, Mkt 19f, 1/9 +4L, soft
Baltic Pathfinder, chased winner to 4th hit next one pace, Wet 16f, 4/10 -25L, soft
Waldo Winchester, held up headway soon ridden stayed on flat not reach leaders, Nwc 16f, 9/16 -23L, good/soft
Mamba, chased leaders effort chasing winner no impression, Hexham 16f, 2/10 -12L, heavyTender Falcon, held up headway every chance hit last not quicken, 3/11 -4.5L, Wnc 16f, good/soft
Dastardly Dick, tracked leaders disputed took narrow advantage bumped headed kept on awarded race, 2/10 -hd, Exe 17f, soft
WHITE ON BLACK, heldup headway led ridden out WON, 1/11 +2L, Wnc 16f, good/soft
Black Jacari, always prominent keen not fluent edged right no extra, 2/14 -7L, Her 17f, softTender Falcon, held up headway every chance hit last not quicken, 3/11 -4.5L, Wnc 16f, good/soft
Dastardly Dick, tracked leaders disputed took narrow advantage bumped headed kept on awarded race, 2/10 -hd, Exe 17f, soft
WHITE ON BLACK, heldup headway led ridden out WON, 1/11 +2L, Wnc 16f, good/soft
Black Jacari, always prominent keen not fluent edged right no extra, 2/14 -7L, Her 17f, softHi Alan, good to see you posting these again
May I ask why have you knocked out the favourite, is this based just on it’s latest effort. Which imv was better than the bare form suggests (-7L to Culcabock, Selling Hurdle, Donny, 16.5f, Gd).I like the look of Tender Falcon in this and am taking him to overturn the recent form with White On Black however, I keep getting drawn back to Stradbroke. Admittely it may be a little bit short due to McCoy riding (his only booking today). Just for fun I’m gonna do a C/R/F it being a Handicap Hurdle on Hvy and all that
Hi Pete,
I didn’t list list Stradbrook as a possible mainly because he wasn’t in the first 3 consistency ratings. The field is quite close and he could come good coming from Cheltenham here and was reported as lame in his last race.
Good luck with Tender Falcon – although I don’t fancy your chances upgrading from Hereford and an iffy jumper last time
Apologies Alan, were I got a seller at Donny from I don’t know (I was on the phone at the time getting a bollocking from my boss for doing this Btw) Stradbrook’s last race was indeed at Cheltenham 0-135 Handicap Hurdle – which is why I thought the form was good for Seller I suppose that proves the old saying if you can’t good be lucky.
Good stuff Formath, very much like my own approach to betting, although I don’t bother too much with form, as such.
Keep up the good work.
2.00 (Hcap Chse over 19f on soft)
CEOPERK, up 4, chased leaders led drew clear WON, 1/6 +16L, Her 16f, soft
Justwhateverulike, down 6, mid division kept on to lead driven out WON, 1/10 +1.5L, Sed 16f, soft
More Like It, down 9, in touch led soon ridden left clear held on under pressure WON, 1/7 +.75, Nwc 16f, soft
ROYAL HILARITY,down 6, chased leaders mistake challenged hit next and 10th led well in command eased WON, 1/10 +15L, Flk 21f, good/soft2.35 (KEY race – nov chse over 16.5f on better than soft).
Buck The Legend
Herecomesthetruth, jumped right galloped made all always in command WON, 1/12 +8L, Chp 19f, soft
Massini’s Maguire
Pressgang
Will Be Done, made all blundered stayed on well WON, 1/6 +4L, Hay 16f,soft
ARALDUR, keen tracked leaders went 2nd bumped ridden driven stayed on gamely led finish WON, 1/5 nose, San 16f, good/softFormath
Where are Mtoto, JIB, GJ, Johnb etc posting these days?
Any idea?
RegardsI think you will find Jib, Mtoto ect all alive & well here.
Hi Formath
i am going to give the VDW another go. I need to make some money
This method should produce some "bread & butter" wages. (50-100 level stakes profit a year)Going to dust off my "dutchman inspired" spreadsheet, and take it nice and steady. Yeah… and i am pretty much an open-minded sort of a chap.
mmm… REALLY
Just got hold of "The Golden Years… " book. (Well it looks like a good read?)
byefrom
GaryGary,
I havn’t posted on this thread for some time but I have been putting similar info under Cloud 9 in Systems.
PM with an email address and I will send you a file full of VDW info that should be of interest.It has been intimated that I could be a VDW devotee – Mois? I have just been an interested onlooker for the past 31 years. Anyway I thought I would check whether the principles for an amended version of the basic methodology for the Flat still hold good, as advised by VDW. Looking to support outstanding class/form qualifiers.
Dante Stakes, York 2.40
Stars
6 Crowded House
6 Kite Wood (proven class well behind Crowded House)
3 Monitor Closely
2 Redwood
1 Neeham
1 Sans Frontiere
1 Native Ruler
0 Black Bear Island
May I ask why have you knocked out the favourite, is this based just on it’s latest effort. Which imv was better than the bare form suggests (-7L to Culcabock, Selling Hurdle, Donny, 16.5f, Gd).
Apologies Alan, were I got a seller at Donny from I don’t know (I was on the phone at the time getting a bollocking from my boss for doing this Btw) Stradbrook’s last race was indeed at Cheltenham 0-135 Handicap Hurdle – which is why I thought the form was good for Seller 
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.