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Except for Douvan and Vautour??! Mullins dominance has largely changed the dynamic of what was once a very strong meeting for reliable stats/trends. Sadly, in many ways, no more!
Soz VTC! I only joined last week, so entirely my fault as not up to speed and tried to unknowingly and unfairly gatecrash the party!
Champion Hurdle – My Tent or Yours 1pt e/w – 25/1 Bet365
World Hurdle – Martello Tower 1pt e/w – 33/1 PP
Gold Cup – Don Poli 1pt e/w – 6/1 Bet365
Supreme – Yorkhill 1pt e/w – 10/1 PP
Arkle – Douvan 2pts win – 1/2 PP
Neptune Novices – Yanworth 2pts win – 7/4 PP
RSA – More of That 2pts win – 9/2 Bet365
Champion Chase – Un de Sceaux 2pts win – 4/5 PP
Ryanair – Vautour 2pts win – 3/1 PP
Triumph – Sceau Royal 1pt ew – 12/1 Bet365More of That for me (on at 6/1). I genuinely cannot believe that No More Heroes is so short? More of That is 4/4 at Cheltenham, including a World Hurdle win, in which he lowered the colours (which nobody else has managed to do!) of Annie Power. He has a top notch combination of Jonjo/Geraghty. Geraghty gets on so well with the horse, that he isn’t running this weekend in the Scilly Isles Novice Chase, because he is riding in Ireland this weekend. I thought that the connections were wrong to run Coneygree in the GC instead of the RSA, as I genuinely thought that a novice couldn’t win the GC (how spectacularly wrong can one be?!)
Connections have been talking the same way about this horse, which to me speaks volumes. I just hope he doesn’t go for the GC now instead!Another very strong stat/trend is that most GC winners, except previous winners,are running in the GC for the first time. Previous placed horses very rarely, if ever, come back and win one.
On that basis the shortlist should be Vautour, Don Cossack, Cue Card and Don Poli. Three out of those four have not just got proven Cheltenham form, but proven winning Festival form (as there is a MASSIVE difference). However IMO there is only one out and out stayer and that is Don Poli. I cannot see Vautour or Cue Card staying that distance up that hill. Whether Don Poli is quick enough to keep up remains to be seen? Lord Windermere did it, and whilst this is a superior field, Don Poli is a far superior horse to him!
All in all,fascinating as always, but especially so this year! Although I am absolutely gutted that Coneygree isn’t there again, as whatever wins the race, there will still be a lingering “what if” for me? I think he would probably have won it again. Last years performance was the standout at the festival for me, and in context and style,one of the the most jaw dropping NH performances I have ever seen!!Cheers. Boo hoo though, as E/W AP single and a multiple or two have just evaporated!
Still, on Yanworth at 12/1 and Douvan at 5/2, plus Faugheen at 7/4 (after losing to NC) so not all doom and gloom! :DNAP – Yanworth – Neptune (Douvanesque last time)
LAY – Vautour – GC (Should mop up the Ryanair instead, as he won’t stay IMO)
E/W – Yorkhill – Wherever he runs
Another very strong stat is that most GC winners, except previous winners,are running in the GC for the first time. Previous placed horses very rarely, if ever come back and win one.
On that basis the shortlist should be Vautour, Don Cossack, Cue Card and Don Poli. IMO three out of the four have proven Cheltenham form, but there is only one out and out stayer and that is Don Poli. Whether he is quick enough to keep up remains to be seen? Lord Windermere did it and Don Poli is far superior to him!
All in all,fascinating as always, but especially so this year! Absolutely gutted that Coneygree isn’t there again, as whatever wins the race, there will still be a lingering “what if” for me?Is Vautour now officially confirmed for the Gold Cup and out of the Ryanair? Even if he is, I don’t get it? Djakadam is GC favourite after an impressive reappearance, then after one fall, in a race he may well have won equally impressively, he is now 11/2 or 6/1 and Vautour is now favourite?!
Why though, what has changed? Precisely nothing. Djakadam has already been a gallant runner up in a GC won by a horse, that if he was in it this year would probably win it again?! Plus Vautour, who I did back on the day, got caught on the line over a flat 3 miles on a polar opposite track, as his tank clearly emptied. If you think he will stay a further 2 1/2 furlongs up the hill at Cheltenham,and the same applies to Cue Card, then good luck with that!
My view is that Vautour should mop up in the Ryanair, which would still leave Willie Mullins with his best chance to date of bagging his Holy Grail, via Don Poli and Djakadam.
For me, the best value at current prices in the race is Don Poli at 13/2 (most likely GC type and 2/2 at the Festival) and Road to Riches, as 12/1 seems too big based on last years performance. If trained by Mullins he would be half the price at least.
