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It looked like a similar plan was in place for the KG but he ended up outjumping SC after a circuit because he wasn’t going fast enough – we know he doesn’t mind another horse upsides him as Irish Saint took him on early in JLT before he was forced into that mistake four out.
Much will probably depend on just how keen SP is on getting the rail position to lead and how fast he intends to go over the first few if he does get the lead but I feel trying to settle Vautour in behind to get the trip will not be making the best use of his main weapons i.e. his extremely high cruising speed and slick ground stealing jumping.
LD, I listened last night to an ATR podcast where Rory Delargy pointed out the appalling record of Irish Gold Cup winners in the Cheltenham Gold Cup, and it set me thinking back to this time last year when Many Clouds won that Betbright Chase. I was so impressed, that I quickly posted here that we had just seen the GC winner, and I backed him accordingly. He ran no race in the Gold Cup, but, as we all know, came right back to form at Aintree.
I’m wary now about Smad Place. This year’s ground was deeper than last year, and although he stayed on up the hill, he was beginning to look a bit weary. If he runs to form, I’m confident he’ll set a good pace until at least three out. If Saturday has affected him, then he might fade much sooner, so you could well be right and Ruby might find himself in front much sooner than ideal.
But he’s the best horse in the race by some way, to my mind, and finished the JLT as though he could have gone round again, so I’m pretty confident he’ll see it out well.
I just hope we get the answers we are all looking for and all of them get a fair crack at the race!my gut feeling Is just vautour is just too good to be one of those in between distance horses and hopefully he is a superstar staying chaser who wins multiple grade ones which is what NH has needed since kauto and denman retired.people writing him off as a non stayer after one 2nd in the KG is ludicrous IMO
LD, Mullins has already said that Vautour will be dropped in.
Where was this Joe?
Value Is EverythingSteep – you have to go a long way back to Looks Like Trouble to find a Gold Cup winner coming out of that race, which seems a bit odd to me at first look but in retrospect may have something to do with being only a month or so after the KG & Lexus Chases and just before the Denman Chase (which arguably fits in better timing wise).
I agree that while SP seems to revel in softer ground, he will take awhile to recover from that effort as that was proper heavy ground, I would also be concerned for Road To Riches contesting the Irish Gold Cup for the same reason. That is why I am glad that Djakadam only got to halfway in that race even though he did fall.
The JLT run is why I am thinking Vautour would be better off leading as any distanced gained through his jumping (especially on good ground) will be done more efficiently and means his rivals have to recover it on the flat using up more energy – not sure if he will meet all his fences on the perfect stride like he did in that race but if he does replicate that race it will mean he is able to conserve his stamina reserves for the last 2f.
For me Ruby should just ride him with his normal front running tactics (unless someone goes off too fast) with the thought that he will stay the trip rather than trying to drop him in and go a stride or two slower than the horse wants, which could upset him if Ruby keeps having to reign him back off the leaders heels and break his stride.
LD, Mullins has already said that Vautour will be dropped in.
Where was this Joe?
Can’t recall now, I have read so many sources. Might have been ATR, or one of the Irish newspapers
LD, Mullins has already said that Vautour will be dropped in.
Where was this Joe?
Can’t recall now, I have read so many sources. Might have been ATR, or one of the Irish newspapers
The bit I’ve seen seems to suggest Vautour won’t be so agressively ridden than Kempton if they can help it (if giving his jockey help in settling). Impression I got was might allow something else (probably Smad Place) to lead whilst racing with a clear view of his fences. Somewhere at the front of the arrowhead. Hoping to go as slow as possible. However, I did not get the impression he’d be “dropped in” to mid-div or be held up behind horses. May be racing in second or third but not behind horse/s. At a push on the outer, in fourth; I’d be surprised if they changed tactics to race further back than that, in a position which is totally abnormal to all he’s done in the past.
Value Is EverythingWell, I took it to mean dropped in behind the leader rather than in midfield. It wouldn’t have occurred to me for a second that he’d race in the pack, and therefore I naturally assumed that Mullins simply meant he would not lead.
I’ve had a search for the piece – I often clip such stuff to Evernote, but cannot find this one. I believe it was reflecting a conversation he’d had with Ruby after the KG, rather than a definite directive he was planning to give Ruby (not WM’s style, as everyone knows).
My view of the gold cup
Vautour and Smad Place will make the pace at the front with Cue Card, Don Cossack, Don Poli, Djakadam, Road to Riches (maybe On his Own if he runs) in behind, followed by a few also rans like Lord Windermere and whoever else.
Don Poli will be the first of the big guns off the bridle, and will plod along outstaying the likes of Smad Place who will tire. Don Cossack will be next off the bridle and will fade up the hill into 5th, Up Front Vautour Cue Card Djakadam and Road to Riches will be bang there at the last with Vautour Showing a greater turn of speed to Narrowly beat Djakadam with Cue Card in third and Road to Riches in 4th.
That’s my opinion obviously some horse will have an off day or one will make a jumping error but I really can’t understand all the hype about Don Poli or Smad Place.Depending on how quick they go my feeling is that Don Poli will be on and off the bridle and probably from quite an early stage, he is the most thorough stayer in the field (has Grand National winner written all over him) and it is just a question of whether he can stay within striking distance in order to take advantage of that stamina…a repeat of how last years race was run would be ideal for him.
Don Cossack’s hit and miss jumping got him into trouble and landed him on the deck at Kempton and I could well see it causing him the same type of problems especially at a course he doesn’t appear to operate too well at (beware the open ditch at the top of the hill). I can’t see any reason why Road To Riches would reverse running with Djakadam (who is two years younger and open to more improvement imho).
I don’t know why but I am still not convinced that Cue Card wants this trip (but then again I thought the same when he went up to 3m…so what do I know) and honestly I would be slighty disappointed if one of the younger brigade didn’t have the scope to improve past his current level of form.
Personally, I just can’t see Djakadam being out of the first three and if Vautour’s stamina does hit empty before the finish, he is my most likely winner (think he could win even if Vautour does stay) and with Ruby jumping ship he is bound to start at a bigger price. Going in off the back of a fall is not ideal but it meant that he wasn’t subjected to a hard race on heavy ground either.
Another very strong stat/trend is that most GC winners, except previous winners,are running in the GC for the first time. Previous placed horses very rarely, if ever, come back and win one.
On that basis the shortlist should be Vautour, Don Cossack, Cue Card and Don Poli. Three out of those four have not just got proven Cheltenham form, but proven winning Festival form (as there is a MASSIVE difference). However IMO there is only one out and out stayer and that is Don Poli. I cannot see Vautour or Cue Card staying that distance up that hill. Whether Don Poli is quick enough to keep up remains to be seen? Lord Windermere did it, and whilst this is a superior field, Don Poli is a far superior horse to him!
All in all,fascinating as always, but especially so this year! Although I am absolutely gutted that Coneygree isn’t there again, as whatever wins the race, there will still be a lingering “what if” for me? I think he would probably have won it again. Last years performance was the standout at the festival for me, and in context and style,one of the the most jaw dropping NH performances I have ever seen!!Glad to see some Don Poli love Brightstar.
I wouldn’t have anything against him, good and all as the other contenders are. Vautour is probably the most talented horse in the race but I find it hard to see him suppressing Don Poli when he gets interested over this trip.
Don Poli has looked lazy and even sluggish since winning the RSA but in March, to borrow a line from Tolkien, he is going to wake up and find that he is strong. He’s not half as slow as he lets on, and probably twice as good.
Aye, Tommy, DP is the unknown. I could never figure out Silv Conti, and I put DP in the same bracket – not as a ‘type’ but in my inability to nail him at a certain level. I had a small bet at 25s on him for this before he won the RSA, but I really don’t know what to expect next month.
As you say, he is not slow. It’s just a matter of finding out how many gears he has. Every time he is asked, he just seems to kind of say, ‘all right, then’ and move up a single gear, or maybe two, but seldom more than what is required. His two biggest winning margins have been at Cheltenham, so perhaps it’s the track or maybe the better ground or a combination of both.
King George form now beginning to look outstanding, assuming V Lido was travelling as well as he looked to be
Though I backed RtoR today, suspicions that he doesn’t want a severe stamina test at top level borne out, I think. Vautour should continue to shorten
The most open Gold Cup for many a year with numerous imponderables. I’d love the Tizzards to win the million but fear he is too old, Vautour could hose up if still there jumping the last but last years form won’t hold up so I am happy with chancing Smad Place EW as not all of those at the head of the betting will be able to keep up with him when he kicks on
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