2016 Cheltenham Gold Cup

Road To Riches was on the go eaarly last summer, training and jumping fences when most of his Gold Cup rivals were grazing in the paddocks. He put in a few excellent performances during the winter but i think he was over the top by the time Cheltenham came round and was still recovering from trying to match Coneygree’s Gold Cup pace when suffered a heavy defeat at Punchestown

He’s top class, much fresher this season and will win the Ryanair if he runs in it ( and Vautour doesn’t )
He’d also have a chance in this. The problem is that neither of the two Don’s could win a Ryanair so RTR would appear to be the best option there for Gigginstown.

Here’s another one for those who like to trade, or at least, don’t mind the occasional dabble.

Smad Place can be backed at 12s NRNB. There is nothing obvious that will compete for the lead (Ruby won’t risk what happened at Kempton happening again). He’s a fine reliable jumper (touch wood) and he stays every yard. I’d be surprised if he’s not still leading and travelling strongly 3 out, and even if Vautour is sitting behind pulling double, there’ll be plenty still doubting he can last home and Smad is likely to be trading much shorter than 12s.

I think he’s well up to it, Boz, well up to it. He could be raised to 170 or even 171 after Saturday. Don Cossack is top rated at 175, and I’ll guarantee, Smad Place’s ability to find a rhythm in front is a precious advantage in a Gold Cup, worth 5lb to 7lb in my view.

Like Cue Card, this will be his peak season with the breathing op still relatively new and working well touch wood. The figures back that up with two of his last 3 RPRs at 173, 10lbs ahead of anything he’s ever done.

If Vautour wasn’t in this race I’d be smashing into Smad like this was the last horse race ever run. At least I know I get the Exacta up this year, too!

Just don’t see Smad Place being good enough to get near a place unless the heavens open and it ends up at least soft – he was getting weight from a horse (that had beaten him in all previous meetings) but who this year is being laid out specifically for the Grand National in a race run on heavy ground, neither of them were good enough to get within hailing distance in last year’s GC and the common consensus is that this year’s renewal is even deeper talent wise.

Yes the front running tactics have paid dividends this season (on testing ground) but on likely better ground and (assuming he runs) Vautour will front run (if they are as confident in his ability to stay why change his normal tactics) and he is also a slicker jumper than Smad Place.

With the exception of the journeyman First Lieutenant, his Hennessy win whilst visually impressive does not stand up to much scrutiny form wise – out of the two engagements at the Festival the Gold Cup is the right race distance wise but for me he would be an ideal candidate for an Irish Grand National over 3m4f where nine time out of ten you will be running on soft ground, which he reveals in.

Good luck if you have taken an ew position on him but you will need an awful lot of things to go wrong with a number of his rivals or have a hidden talent for rain dancing in order to collect.

Steep – I agree that Aintree would be right up his alley but if I remember rightly, King was asked after his Hennessy win about that and he answered somewhere along the lines of his owners would string him up if he ever made an entry for him, sad as I think the changes made over the years suit the better class horses much more now although trying to make all would still be a mighty task in of itself.

If it (GC) came up proper soft it would inconvenience (blunt) the more ‘speedier’ type horses a lot more and bring them all closer together where the emphasis would be much more on stamina especially up that energy sapping hill – those are the only conditions where I can see him being a player at the business end.

Kauto Star settled far better than Vautour and didn’t need to race prominently.
Vautour might win the Gold Cup if settling better than has in the past.

Parro88 – If it was anywhere else but Cheltenham then the stamina question probably isn’t as relevant but if you look back over the years, there have been a host of great 3m chasers that have been consistently found out by the extra 2f up that hill.

I have mention in other posts the likes of One Man (dual KG winner & Hennessy winner over GC distance who consistently hit the proverbial wall at the second last in his two GC attempts), Florida Pearl (RSA, KG and 4 time Irish Gold Cup winner who was outstayed when twice placed in GC) and Wayward Lad (three time KG winner and twice placed in GC which were notably for his stamina reserves running out after the last especially against Dawn Run in 1986).

The truth is that the question of whether Vautour stays or not will only be answered when he turns for home and Ruby asks him with two to go in this year’s GC – personally, a horse with that much natural speed normally wouldn’t also have the required stamina but there have been exceptions with Kauto Star (won from 2m to 3m2f) & Desert Orchid (who won from 2m to 3m5f).

I see the race being run in a similar style to last year and that puts more emphasis on stamina and I believe there are other horses in the race that will be better suited to that type of attritional race than he will – if thoses horses are all with him turning for home, I just don’t see him being able to get down and dirty to outstay them.

Don’t get me wrong, I think he is the most naturally talented horse in the race by a country mile and also the best jumper – the JLT was the most impressive jumping performance at Cheltenham full stop but we are talking about another 6f to race.

That being said if he makes the same kind of improvement from Christmas to March as he did last year, the ground is no worse than good and he jumps like he did in the JLT there will be no excuses for him – can’t see them changing the front running tactics unless Smad Place goes off at a silly pace.

I still have not lost faith in Djakadam, yes it was unfortunate he hit the deck but it may just be a blessing in disguise not to have had a real hard slog in heavy ground 6 weeks before the big day – he will be going into the race a fresh horse and strangely enough I am not worried about his jumping even though he has only completed once in three starts at the track.

Funny enough he will now be trying to emmulate Dawn Run who also fell in the same corresponding race before winning the Gold Cup on her next start – the only negative I can see with him is that he is unlikely to have Ruby on board but that will mean he is likely to start at a bigger price than he is quoted at now.