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Cracking performances by both Smad Place and Many Clouds in the trial race today.
While it’s unlikely that the Grand National winner will take his chance in the blue riband event in March (his trainer has just confirmed that Kelso is the next stop on the road to Aintree), Alan King’s grey will surely take some catching if allowed to stride on. Better ground won’t be a hindrance and the 16-1 on offer represents excellent each-way value.
Cracking performances by both Smad Place and Many Clouds in the trial race today.
While it’s unlikely that the Grand National winner will take his chance in the blue riband event in March (his trainer has just confirmed that Kelso is the next stop on the road to Aintree), Alan King’s grey will surely take some catching if allowed to stride on. Better ground won’t be a hindrance and the 16-1 on offer represents excellent each-way value.
King still sounded very unsure which race the horse goes to. I think the lure of winning the grade 1 Ryanair at the festival v potentially finishing 5th in the Gold cup is weighing on him. Personally I hope he goes to the Ryanair and gallops them into the ground. However I am bias as I have antepost vouchers on that position.
I personally hope he goes for the Ryanair as I’m on him for that and with Vautour looking more and more likely to go for the Gold Cup I think it would be his to lose!
With Djakadam falling today it didn’t really answer any questions over Smad Places stamina in top quality races….I think at the top when he’s asked questions he usually finds one or two too good….going from the front in the Ryanair though I think he would be one of the bets of the week…big decision for connections!
Zam, I think stamina is his forte – finished relatively fresh today. There’s only one Gold Cup and with their horse in such cracking form, no stamina doubts, fine jumper they’d be mad not to go for it. For me he’s all rhythm rather than speed, and would likely get done by something quicker in the Ryanair.
Yeah, maybe not the thing to question him on thinking back…just he has been outstayed and found wanting a few times at the top level….like in the gold cup last year…
There’s no doubt heavy ground plays right into his hands though…could we get really testing ground again this year for the big one? It went right for Coneygree last year…I feel looking through the profile of Smad Place anything with gd in the going description and he can forget the Gold Cup as he’ll find a few too good.
The way the Ryanair is looking though I could see him being too strong for that field on any ground….maybe it’s just my own antepost bets on the Ryanair trying to convince myself that he might still go there?
You’re right, he’s failed close home a couple of times, but had the same op as Cue Card – different animal since
I personally hope he goes for the Ryanair as I’m on him for that and with Vautour looking more and more likely to go for the Gold Cup I think it would be his to lose!
With Djakadam falling today it didn’t really answer any questions over Smad Places stamina in top quality races….I think at the top when he’s asked questions he usually finds one or two too good….going from the front in the Ryanair though I think he would be one of the bets of the week…big decision for connections!
It wasn’t a GC winning performance but it was still pretty good. He jumped the GN winner silly and beat him convincingly. Way more convincingly than Don Poli did actually. I think DP has a better chance in the GC but today’s performance was still solid. It’s a shame it’s such a competitive race cos I think he’d easily be capable of a 3rd or even a 2nd place finish one year.
Smad Place has to be the value bet now at 14s NRNB. He has never run a bad race in his life and since his breathing op, the King George has been his only blip – King continues to ‘protest too much’ about abandoning front-running tactics there: I doubt he would have won with them, but he might well have finished much closer.
He has exactly the same attributes as Coneygree had plus experience and, touch wood, soundness. Horses who can get into a rhythm in staying chases have a precious advantage, especially at Cheltenham.
I can only think he is such a big price due to bookies assuming he is a deep ground specialist. But he’s run some fine races on good ground, not least a neck 2nd in the RSA and a 3rd in the World Hurdle (not finishing his races either time, and his breathing might well have been the issue). Since his op, he’s run once on good, thrashing Fingal Bay on his seasonal debut. He then wins a Hennessy easily by 12l off 155, and yesterday, the Betbright in the same fashion and by the same distance off 168.
Why is he 14/1?
Hope you’re right Joe, and a big deal for me that they’re Going for Gold.
Going for The Ryanair, after winning a key Gold Cup trial at the track, would have been a strange decision.
We can talk about Smad Place all day but IMO Vautour wins the Gold Cup.
I think Ruby will definitely ride him and that will make him a 2/1 shot which makes his current price of about 9.2 massive.
I know I am biased cos I am already on but I think if Ruby had held on to him just a little longer he would have won the King George and we wouldn’t be querying whether he is going to stay in the Gold Cup or not.Raymo, I’m with you, having backed Vautour for this before his JLT win and plenty again afterwards, to make him carry the biggest bet I’ve ever had.
But, value-wise, there’s nothing else in the race I’d rather have as backup than Smad Place, should something go wrong for Vautour.
Raymo, I’m with you, having backed Vautour for this before his JLT win and plenty again afterwards, to make him carry the biggest bet I’ve ever had.
But, value-wise, there’s nothing else in the race I’d rather have as backup than Cue Card ,should something go wrong for Vautour.
I have edited your post for you Joe…..No problem!
I think Don Cossack has the best chance of winning the Gold Cup. But if I was the owner, I’d want Bryan Cooper on Poli and get someone else for Cossack. Arguably DC’s best performances have been at Aintree (AP McCoy) and Punchestown (Paul Carberry). I like Cooper as a rider, but does this particular horse go as well for him as others?
Who’s free to ride?
Geraghty? Johnson? Coleman?
Value Is EverythingRaymo, I’m with you, having backed Vautour for this before his JLT win and plenty again afterwards, to make him carry the biggest bet I’ve ever had.
But, value-wise, there’s nothing else in the race I’d rather have as backup than Smad Place, should something go wrong for Vautour.
Are you worried Vautour and Smad Place’s chances will be compromised by each other Joe? Both horses being front runners and Vautour wanting as slow a pace as possible. Smad Place’s running here may also free up Road To Riches (who could’ve been used by Gigginstown to ensure a strong pace in the GC) for the Ryanair.
I’ve got 25/1 for Smad Place to win the Gold Cup…
…of 2015.
Value Is EverythingSmad Place should be a bonus for Vautour, who’ll be held onto much longer than in the past imo.
Gord, I should have qualified that: Cue Card is already a big winner for me, having backed him to win the Million at 125/1 and again at 33s as well as at the 14s advised by you.
I’m looking at things as they are today, and think Smad Place is the best value by some considerable margin. He should be single figures imo, especially now that Djakadam goes into the race off the back of a fall at the track. Don Cossack, in my view, won’t get in that vital rhythm which Smad Place has shown three times this season matters so much, though they might try to ride him more prominently to do just that. I also suspect that DC is a better horse at a shorter trip, even though he stays.
Don Poli is a slight fly in the ointment: hard to say just how good he is. Cue Card’s form speaks for itself, but if R Ricci is correct in saying Vautour will turn up 10 to 15kg lighter than at Kempton, then he only has to stay to beat Cue Card.
Road to Riches is reportedly working really well, and two jocks in yesterday’s RP when asked what they thought Cooper would ride said it should be RtR. I don’t think a gut-busting Gold Cup is what he wants, and have backed him at 5s NRNB for the Ryanair.
But, returning to the key point, SP has looked a different horse since his breathing op. Two races before that where he just didn’t quite get home now look different in light of his breathing issues: his narrow defeats in the RSA and in last year’s Cotswold Chase (Betbright). So, it seems, like Cue Card, he’s been transformed by this epiglottal op and prominent tactics. Of the two, he’s the more reliable jumper by some way, probably the stouter stayer, and he’s utterly straightforward. Looks a solid EW bet to me NRNB.
You are quite right Joe about Smad Place benefitting from his breathing op.I do recall blowing his trumpet Ante-Post for the 2014 Hennessey at 10/1 and his numpty Trainer ran him short.I was dissapointed with that performance as I had visually saw his 2015 performance in my head.I jumped ship in last years Argento and backed Many clouds to beat him giving the grey 8lb,he duly did totally outstaying ‘Smad Place’.Yesterday I stayed loyal to Oliver Sherwoods Grand National winner at 9/1 and when ‘Djakadam’ fell it was obviously a 2 horse race from then home.Both horses traded at around Evens as they went head to head and in mine I’m thinking “With a 4lb pull from last year ‘Many Clouds’ will do exactly the same thing”..In running I’m offered 4/1 for a nice profit but TAPK is a stubborn fool at times and was convinced my fellow would again beat the Grey…My point is if ‘Many Clouds’ ran his race then ‘Smad Place’ has improved into a worthy Gold cup horse and like you say 16/1 is generous,particularly as Alan King is convinced his King George run is below par.If my 10 winners are home and hosed before the Gold cup I still think your real horse Cue Card will win.I of course being a born again Christian wont rub it in
At 14/1, Smad Place is of obvious each way interest but I just don’t think he’ll finish in the top 3. If he goes out to make all the running, I can see him being swamped late on and finishing 5th or 6th. I just think that for him to place that two of Vautour, Don Cossack, Don Poli, Cue Card and Djakadam have to underperform. I don’t think he is good enough to finish in the top 2 so then you are hoping that he can hang onto third or something like that. I would certainly consider him in perhaps an e/w with the fav (prob Vautour on race day) and grab the extra place there but I would be surprised (and probably a bit disappointed considering the hype of “the big 5” coming into this year) if he was to place. I do like the horse, but if I was being totally honest and a bit selfish, I want the top 5 to come from the top 5 in the betting now.
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