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Here’s the current betting from Stan James
11/4 Vautour
5/1 Cue Card
7/1 Don Cossack
12/1 Ptit Zig
12/1 Valseur Lido
12/1 Sprinter Sacre
12/1 Vroum Vroum Mag
14/1 Simonsig
14/1 Sound Investment
16/1 Road to RichesThe current intentions of connections, gathered from reading race reports, stable tours, blogs etc suggest that the following are likely to be seen in the Gold Cup, not the Ryanair:
Vautour
Cue Card
Don Cossack
Road to Riches
The QM Champion Chase is the likely destination for Sprinter Sacre, who might be joined there by Simonsig (though I wouldn’t be surprised to see the grey return to hurdling full time).
Valseur Lido could also end up in the Gold Cup as connections appear to believe stamina is his strong suit. Vroum Vroum Mag might run in the Ryanair, but I doubt she’ll have accumulated sufficient tough-it-out experience by March. Also, she has yet to run left-handed outside France (she has an entry at Carlisle at the time of writing, another right-handed track).
Should all of the above pan out (unlikely, but far from impossible), that leaves the Nicholls pair, Ptit Zig and Sound Investment. The latter is a fast-improving handicapper, who could run well. Ptit Zig is a horse bordering on top class. He is also much more likely to run here than in the QM or the Gold Cup. The QM would mean facing a potential superstar in Un De Sceaux as well as a rejuvenated Sprinter Sacre. The Gold Cup would see him taking on arguably the best field in the history of the race, over a trip he’s not at all sure to stay.
Ptit Zig ran Vautour pretty close on Saturday, giving the Gold Cup favourite five pounds, a performance which brought brickbats raining down on the Irish horse rather than bouquets on PZ. I think it will turn out to be very good form indeed. Prior to that, Ptit Zig had won easily in Ireland on his seasonal debut. In the JLT, he was routed and gutted by Vautour, but so was everything else in that field. Ptit Zig does have a Cheltenham victory, having won there last January. Nicholls has always thought a lot of him (he ran him in the 2014 Champion Hurdle). I’ve a feeling Ptit Zig will progress this year much the way the yard’s Dodging Bullets did last year.
Crucially, Ptit Zig is the one horse in the above betting list who looks most likely to turn up in the Ryanair. Nothing is certain, but that risk is more than built into the price of 12/1. If my hypothesis proves correct, he’s unlikely to be bigger than 3/1 on the day.
You’ve chose a tricky race there Joe!..I admire a bit of foresight.I think the King George is going to send not ripples but waves throught the Ryanair Market and I honestly think that ‘Vautour’ will be the one who’s Gold cup aspirations get blown out the water.This then becomes the obvious choice,however I am adamant Rich Ricci would take the QMCC route with his star horse rather than the less prestigious Ryanair.If of course this Mullins wonder horse trounces ‘Cue Card’ at Kempton then I’m eating 2 slabs of humble pie….Not for the first time.Your selection ‘Ptit Zig’ at 12/1 is a fine choice,he looks like a typical Nicholls plot horse and this race is the ideal plot.Good luck Sir.
You know who my money’s on here Joe, and still freely available at 25/1!
Gord, I think Vautour could be beaten 50 lengths at Kempton and they’d still go for the Gold Cup.
Aye, Tommy, I’d forgotten about that one . . .gulp!
You’re right – bound to be his target, and he’ll be way shorter than 25s. I’ll have a saver, though I do believe that PZ form on Saturday will look phenomenal come the end of the season. Third Intention wouldn’t be one to have the bank on, but he’s been largely consistent in the last half dozen runs, yard is in form, he’s rated 160 and finishes 30 lengths back. Seems to have been ignored by almost everyone.
I’ve backed Vroum Vroum Mag at 14/1. Been impressive so far though against fellow mares only. Entered Carlisle on Sunday where she could face Ma Filleule which will tell us more where she stands. Can’t see her going off 14/1 come Cheltenham with her connections and 7lb allowance.
The uncertainty over the field shows precisely why this race was such a bad idea; it’s a virtual consolation prize for The GC and the 2-mile CC. That it is usually a competitive contest don’t take away from this. And both major races suffer; Uzizandre would surely have gone very close in the 2MCC last year
With depth of 3m chasers Mullins and Giggistown have i think SIR DES CHAMPS may be routed here instead of gold cup 16/1 current price
That had occurred to me as well Darren.
Beginning to get worried about Apache Stronghold’s well-being.
Tommy, this today from Meade:
“He gave himself a bit of a stretch a while back. It looks like nothing serious but because we think so highly of him we have been very careful with him. We haven’t been able to get stuck into him yet and the vet says he’s okay but I’m still not 100% so if he doesn’t run over Christmas he still might run in something in January. It might well be all for the best that we hang on to him for the second half of the season but it’s still disappointing that we haven’t managed to get him out yet. He was very good last year and ran a good race behind Vautour at Cheltenham. I mean Vautour is a very very good horse and he has won a Grade One for us. I wouldn’t close the door on the three mile route, but I won’t be making any plans for him just yet as we haven’t just done enough with him so far this season.”
Thanks very much for that Joe. Obviously not an ideal start to the season so fingers crossed we see him soon.
Village Vic has got to come into the reckoning for this now, really impressed by him today.
Connections have been a bit non-committal about Village Vic going here, but I still reckon he’s got to be worth a go.
Certainly need to latch on to something, I like to have a decent bet on at least one ante-post, but I think the race has a good few question marks against it, not least because of the Vautour situation.
I’ve got pennies on Apache Stronghold & Vroum Vroum Mag in a couple of Lucky 31’s from the tail end of last season, as well as a few quid on Sir Des Champs @ 26’s (he’s now 34’s), but that’s it.
Village Vic’s stablemate, Champagne West, might emerge as a candidate for me, but I still hope that they go the Gold Cup route with him, but should it be The Ryanair, then he’d be on my shortlist.
One horse who looks a wee bit overpriced @ 25’s with Paddy Power is Ma Filleule. She hasn’t hit the heights she hinted at a couple of years back, but she travelled smoothly at Ascot until her stamina appeared to give way, in The Sodexo Silver Cup, before then going on to win at Doncaster in a listed mares chase last time. It might just be there’s more to come, as she could be more of a spring horse, and with her handy allowance, then the 25’s seems reasonable about her repeating her runners up spot in this last year. Certainly has a bit of each way appeal about it.
To me the clear winner of this has been steadily emerging over the last few weeks in the betting. I personally think it’s still a false market as Vautour will be Gold Cup bound, so still well worth taking a price…
He didn’t come up to scratch in the Gold Cup last season and on occasion has found the going a bit tough at the top level over longer trips against top quality chasers….he’s been placed in two World hurdles and narrowly beaten in an RSA, so clearly goes well at the festival…
He’s looked better than ever this year trouncing the Hennessy field with a fantastic round of jumping…I feel the King George came too quickly for him after that effort at Newbury and he never gave his true running…
I know he’s more often than not been a hold up horse, but the few times he’s found himself in front early in races he’s looked a much better proposition to me, like in the Hennessy…he got to the front some way out and got into a fantastic rythmn…I’d love to see them make more use of him dropping in trip for this…get out in front and jump the field silly did like Alan King’s winner of this race last year Uxizandre…
Ryanair winner 2016 = Smad Place!
Commiserations, on Apache, Tommy.
Thanks Joe. Very disappointing but I can’t say it’s a massive shock given the trouble he’s had in the early part of the season. A tough blow to Meade with it looking like we may have seen the last of Very Wood as well.
I’ve backed Vroum Vroum Mag for this at 12/1 NRNB.
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