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I’ve put this one up on the TRF v Pricewise and The Clarence House
threads, but I thought probably I should have had him on this thread
first.I think that Gary Moore’s TRAFFIC FLUIDE is a fast improving horse
and well worth considering at 50/1 for this race. He runs today in
the Clarence House at Ascot against UN DE SCEAUX and SIRE DE GRUGY
and whilst I don’t expect him to win there, I think he will run
better than his 33/1 (PP) outsider of the field suggests. If he does,
the 50/1 for the Ryanair won’t last.He has improved with every one of his 4 races from January to April
last year, being raised 29 lbs in the process. His last race was a
step up in class in the Grade 1 Maghull Novice Chase where he ran a
decent running on 3rd behind SIZING GRANITE and GOD’S OWN. Today the
Clarence House is another step up, and if he performs well he will
continue to rise through the weights from his mark of 154.He is also entered in the QM Champion Chase, although I think the Ryanair
is a more realistic target, but as Joe (steeplechasing) pointed out in the
Clarence House thread, there are firms offering NRNB in that race, so there’s
nothing lost by having a covering bet in that, where he is available at 50/1
with PP.Gary Moore Doesn’t over pitch his horses, so the fact he is running in the
Clarence House today, and having the engagements in the Ryanair and Champion
Chase, shows he holds a high opinion of the horse. I think he represents very
decent value.Having done my dough on Ptit Zig, I’ve just had a fun bet at 100 about Un Beau Roman (NRNB).
I’ve backed him to win at Cheltenham tomorrow, too, at 16s. I like Champagne West a lot, but don’t trust his jumping so, seeking some value in the race, I came across Un Beau Roman at 16/1.
Six weeks ago his home was among the stars in Closutton as one of Willie Mullins’s horses. But he was sold to a small trainer, Paul Henderson who trains about 30 down at Whitsbury. Un Beau Roman ran poorly in his first outing for the yard over hurdles, but back over fences a couple of weeks later, he won in the style of an improving horse.
With 28 runs, you’d hardly call him unexposed, but it’s not unusual for a horse to improve for a move to a much smaller yard. He’s the best horse Henderson has, which will make a nice change from seeing Vautour & Co at breakfast every morning.
In a race run at a decent pace at Kempton, he travelled supremely well throughout under Wayne Hutchinson, and after a brief tussle in the straight put the race to bed in fine fashion. A comment from Ruby about the horse early in his career suggested he was a weak finisher, and if so, Cheltenham wouldn’t be the place for a ding-dong battle in this hot handicap. But he looks as though he’ll have no issue travelling nicely in behind the leaders, and he jumped well at Kempton. The hill, as ever, will tell the tale in the end.
If he loses tomorrow, I suspect he will not run in the Ryanair, and if he wins, he’ll be a good deal shorter than 100/1, despite the size of the task in March. So, a fiver at 100s will buy you some very cheap fun throughout tomorrow’s race.
And stranger things have happened than a Closutton ugly duckling turning into a Festival swan.
Having done my dough on Ptit Zig, I’ve just had a fun bet at 100 about Un Beau Roman (NRNB).
I’ve backed him to win at Cheltenham tomorrow, too, at 16s. I like Champagne West a lot, but don’t trust his jumping so, seeking some value in the race, I came across Un Beau Roman at 16/1.
Six weeks ago his home was among the stars in Closutton as one of Willie Mullins’s horses. But he was sold to a small trainer, Paul Henderson who trains about 30 down at Whitsbury. Un Beau Roman ran poorly in his first outing for the yard over hurdles, but back over fences a couple of weeks later, he won in the style of an improving horse.
With 28 runs, you’d hardly call him unexposed, but it’s not unusual for a horse to improve for a move to a much smaller yard. He’s the best horse Henderson has, which will make a nice change from seeing Vautour & Co at breakfast every morning.
In a race run at a decent pace at Kempton, he travelled supremely well throughout under Wayne Hutchinson, and after a brief tussle in the straight put the race to bed in fine fashion. A comment from Ruby about the horse early in his career suggested he was a weak finisher, and if so, Cheltenham wouldn’t be the place for a ding-dong battle in this hot handicap. But he looks as though he’ll have no issue travelling nicely in behind the leaders, and he jumped well at Kempton. The hill, as ever, will tell the tale in the end.
If he loses tomorrow, I suspect he will not run in the Ryanair, and if he wins, he’ll be a good deal shorter than 100/1, despite the size of the task in March. So, a fiver at 100s will buy you some very cheap fun throughout tomorrow’s race.
And stranger things have happened than a Closutton ugly duckling turning into a Festival swan.
in relation to un beau roman firstly I honestly don’t think he has a hope in either race. My philosophy is that when looking at form figures if a horse suddenly has a good piece of form after several rubbish efforts I tend to treat this as a fluke, he is a very exposed horse who won’t improve much at all in my opinion. I understand what you mean about getting more attention in a smaller yard but with this horses performances I can’t see it competing at a graded level whatsoever.
Didn’t need a stopwatch to notice The Clock Leary and Come On Ginger went off at a suicidal pace in Un Beau Roman’s Kempton race. As a consequence didn’t have much to beat. Up 5 lbs for that and could struggle. In contrast, there doesn’t look much pace in the race today, nothing to help a hold up horse. One to oppose imo, even at 16/1.
Runs off bottom weight on 137. Looks a poor Ryanair (particularly if Vautour goes for the Blue Riband) but not that poor. 100/1 doesn’t appear generous. Even if winning today would’ve thought one of the handicaps will be much more likely, but at least you’ll get your money back Joe.
Value Is EverythingUnless I’m mistaken the top 4 in the ante-post market are for the Ryanair are Vautour (5/2), Smad Place (10/1), Road To Riches (10/1) and Al Ferof (10/1) all of which are more than likely to run in the Gold Cup. That would leave surely the weakest Ryanair field in a while to be fought out by the likes of Valseur Lido, Sound Investment, Traffic Fluide, Vibrato Valtat and Village Vic. Given the fact the Gold Cup is looking read-hot with no chance of anyone getting an easy lead it’s not hard to imagine Mr King’s mind-set. Personally I’d run the grey in the Gold Cup because the horse has never nor will ever be in better form and there’s only the one Gold Cup on offer. Now I think, regardless of ground, pace angles and distance, if Smad lined up for the Ryanair he’d be bloody hard to pass when one takes into account the likely opposition.
Trainer says Traffic Fluide goes for QM. I wouldn’t rule out Road to Riches, especially if Smad Place missed the race. Gigginstown sponsor the race, as you know, and already have 2 strong GC contenders. I suspect RtoR is probably better when stamina isn’t at a premium.
I’m starting to look further down the field and maybe looking at David Pipe for a big priced winner for either Dynaste or Kings Palace….
I’m praying Alan King realises today’s race fell in the lap of Smad Place and the Ryanair is there for his taking…
Joe – Do you not think Gigginstown will be missing a trick if they don’t put Road To Riches in the Gold Cup as a front runner to ensure a true run race? From their point of view you would have to be fearing Vautour and their two main hopes Don Cossack and Don Poli would benefit hugely IMO from Road To Riches setting a furious gallop….he tried to take Coneygree on early last year but couldn’t get to the lead but was right up there throughout.
With Smad Place doing what he did today if I was Gigginstown I would definitely do that….Road To Riches may even stay there….he ran well enough last year?
GC run would be fav Zam. Just kind of trying to read between the lines. Meade says O’Leary told him to put the horse in The Ryanair; it’s just my opinion that he doesn’t quite get home in a top notch GC, but I suppose he might go in as the hare, although Smad Place will be there and I wouldn’t rule out Don Cossack being ridden much more prominently.
I see a couple of jocks in today’s RP thought that Cooper might actually opt for RtR out of the 3 (and he’s 10/1 with PP to pick him). RtR reportedly did some sparkling work recently and is fav for next weekend’s Irish Gold Cup.
Much will depend on how Gigginstown read the opposition Djakadam will be going into the race off the back of that fall at the track, and if they take the view that Vautour has stamina doubts, maybe RtR will try and run the race out of him. And they also have Valseur Lido for The Ryanair….
……fascinating!
Had my first and last bets in this year’s ryan air, hoping that vautour dosent turn up and taking a stance on that. Road to riches almost certain to go for the gold cup imo. Alferof I can’t have on good ground and after previous attempt in 2m4 grade 1 races.
Lots of horses priced up here who simply aren’t good enough or unlikely runners and after champagne west falling today and champagne fever being ruled out. It’s time to play in the market.SMAD PLACE 5/1 win b.o.g nrnb
pretty sure he goes here and if vautour dosent run 5/1 will look huge, if he does smad place might drift and I’ll still be on and take my chances at the bigger price as it’s bog.VALSEUR LIDO 12/1 ew b.o.g nrnrb
Finished best of the rest behind Djakadam in the john durkan, looking through his form was suprised to see he has performed better on good ground.FELIX YONGER 16/1 ew b.o.g
if vautour dosent line up willie may throw a few darts. Felix yonger could shorten tomorrow and I can’t see him taking on uds, if he dosent win and somehow still lines up in ryanair atleast it’s bog. And I dont mind a punt.Sir des champs the only other horse that interested me but after much deliberation and watching his previous races on the atr player, as much as people may want him to be the horse that tanked round on the bridle taking graded races, and had some might races with flemenstar, hes simply not of that ability any more and your backing him on name only.
Zam, I think Dynaste has a solid chance in this, and is well worth a second look.
I normally like a good go in this, but hardly got a bean on in yet. Vroum Vroum Mag & Apache Stronghold were my fancies before a ball was kicked this season, but bar a few pennies in Mug 31’s I’ve went the season without a bet. Had a very small bet on Sir Des Champs, but laid that back a good while back.
My main fancy would still be Village Vic, but not bet him yet, though I think I’d better soon, as that 25’s surely can’t last much longer.
Threw a few quid at Ma Filleule @ 42’s on Betfair, and wouldn’t put anyone off the 28’s with Betway either. I still think she’s way overpriced, especially with her allowance.
With question marks over so many, and perhaps not the strongest Irish entry, and in a race where they have a surprisingly poor record, I’ll stick my neck out and say the first 4 home will be from home soil.
I reckon it’ll be from
Village Vic
Ma Filleule
Dynaste
Al Ferofand hopefully, once my money is down, it’ll be in that order haha
Common sense prevails. I’d rather not have had Vautour’s task made any more difficult, but SP had to go for Gold.
Common sense prevails. I’d rather not have had Vautour’s task made any more difficult, but SP had to go for Gold.
Interesting that King has already stated that Smad Place will be ridden “handy” in the Gold Cup. Not only has his best form been from the front, but he has just jumped and galloped a Grand National winner silly. Any flaws in Vautour’s stamina will surely be exposed now.
I personally think they’re making the wrong call and getting carried away with yesterday…suppose I would though with an antepost Ryanair ticket for him…
Just think it was another race that fell into his lap with Djakadam falling and Many Clouds just not at his best for that particular race…Ollie Sherwood said as much after…he wasn’t 100% on that ground and everyone knows he is being trained and aimed for a defence of his National crown…I don’t blame them for having a go…like Coneygree last year…just feel it will be the wrong option…
Leaves the Ryanair wide open now and as mentioned earlier, could be a little window of opportunity for something like Dynaste….maybe a bit of a forgotten horse? Won it in 2014 and has run a few poor races since but even the 2nd to Cue Card in the Charlie Hall isn’t the worst looking form considering what Cue Card has done since…fresh from a break and on possibe better ground I’ve seen worse 20/1 shots…Does anyone know if the horse has any ongoing problems other than a little lack of form like many of Pipes at the moment?
No luck Zam, know that feeling only too well
I don’t know about any issues with Dynaste, but that run behind Cue Card isn’t forgoten, and I’ve taken 34’s this morning. Also topped up on Ma Filleule, and taken the 28’s on Village Vic.
Going to start a small book on it, and also took the 70’s to 75’s Annacotty. He would obviously need it soft, but after the winter we’ve had, you never know.
Ma Filleule, and Village Vic in particular, still the main fancies though.
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