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First I had Cue Card at 12/1 and then after he jumped ship I checked and was happy with Smad Place at 16/1 only for Mr King to jump ship and go for the wrong race!! Despite this great error in judgement I can still see him going close in GC. Al Ferof must be too old and the rest we don’t know who will run!!
Road to Riches has been taken out of the Gold Cup and there is still a bit of 6/1 around for the Ryanair
Ignore my previous tweet. RtR is still in the Gold Cup. The normally reliable Paul Jones (editor of Cheltenham Guide) got it wrong on twitter
I have been waiting for confirmation on where Annacotty runs before placing a bet, and fortunately Alan King obliged at On The Line on ATR tonight.
£25 ew @ 40/1 in the Ryanair Chase.
I am genuinely excited about this bet, for a number of reasons.
Firstly, a number of the market principals will run elsewhere, most noticeably, Vautour, Valseur Lido, Vroum Vroum Mag and possibly even Road to Riches.
Secondly, the trip. Annacotty’s trip is not 3m. In the 2014 RSA he tanked along in front to about 20f and then ran out of steam. Did the exact same in the Ultima handicap in 2015. 2 1/2 miles is his trip which makes the Ryanair ideal.
Thirdly, Cheltenham form. Setting aside the festival runs over 25f, he has won 3 out of 4 starts over his preferred trip at Cheltenham – he loves the place.
Fourthly – Alan King is in form. He smashed Cheltenham trials day, is taking a number of strong hopes and I think this one is under the radar.
Taking all the above into account, I am happy firing in @ 40/1
__________________Hope you’re right Charlie.
Attempted a book on The Ryanair, but so far been carnage. Very tempted now just to take the hit, and let them all ride, especially Annacotty as got him up to 140’s, wouldn’t knock that back, though Village Vic would still be a strong fancy.
GL
Manchester.
Not sure if your already aware but ma filleulle is in Normandy starting her new career as a brood mare.David casey confirmed that valseur lido will be going for this.
Leaves me with
Smashing 33/1 ew
Valseur lido 12/1 ew.As long as vautour dosent run here which I’m sure he wont, I’m pretty happy to leave it at that.
I do not fancy Al Ferof at all. I love the horse but not since his novice chasing days has he won a race which wasn’t his seasonal debut. Unbeaten in seasonal debuts, beaten in all other races. Hopefully he’ll run and I’ll look to either win or place lay.
Won’t Al Ferof be thinking this is his seasonal debut Zark?
Another way of looking at it is his strike rate after 60+ days break is remarkable.Get On!
Value Is EverythingAm on Al Ferof at 13/2 and am quite happy with that as the field will cut up dramatically it seems. As Ginge says his record ‘fresh’ is remarkable and the trip should suit perfectly.
Still wondering if Philip Hobbs has got over that knock on the head he must have suffered prior to deciding it wasn’t a sensible idea to run Onenightinvienna in the National Hunt Chase. Much better to take in a nice, easy target like the Grand National instead. According to his favourite columnist he is now suggesting that running Village Vic in the Ryanair is too big an ask. Apparently, too many more highly rated horses in opposition. Much better idea to run off top weight in a competitive handicap. Does he actually realise that the likes of Vautour and others are not going to run? Perhaps he will come to his senses but I wouldn’t bank on it.
We can live in hope Stilv. I have backed Village Vic for this at 25/1 but he seems to think the handicap route is best!!
What do we know?
Seems a very strange decision to me, I had him down as a very strong chance in this, not much to beat, and was bit surprised to see him not vying for favouritism. Ok, he could still go here, and get stuffed, but just thought it looked ideal for him.
Might throw a few quid at him for The Plate, but it’ll be out of hope rather than expectation.
Still wondering if Philip Hobbs has got over that knock on the head he must have suffered prior to deciding it wasn’t a sensible idea to run Onenightinvienna in the National Hunt Chase. Much better to take in a nice, easy target like the Grand National instead. According to his favourite columnist he is now suggesting that running Village Vic in the Ryanair is too big an ask. Apparently, too many more highly rated horses in opposition. Much better idea to run off top weight in a competitive handicap. Does he actually realise that the likes of Vautour and others are not going to run? Perhaps he will come to his senses but I wouldn’t bank on it.
I think it is a really tough decision connections need to make Stilvi.
On the one hand: Even if Vautour, Don Cossack and Road To Riches (as expected) run in the Gold Cup… Village Vic still has at least 8 lbs+ to make up on the Ryanair top rateds if they run to form.
On the other hand: He’s got a lot more progressive types to race against if choosing the handicap route and will probably need to improve around 7 or 8 lbs to win that one anyway.Suspect what Hobbs is actually looking at (and doesn’t want to say) is how many “confirmed” front runners are in each race. The fewer of those the more chance Village Vic has of winning.
imo He’s doing the right thing in keeping options open. If I were Hobbs – at the moment – think I’d go for the Ryanair. But that might change depending on who’s likely to take VV on up front.
Value Is EverythingTaquin De Seuil supplemented for this race looks back to his best form. He is a course and distance winner winning the JLT on good ground. At 12/1 and a very likely runner after his supplementation this looks an each certainty.
God’s Own is a sound ew bet at 25-1 in my view. Looks like the ground is coming right and was the only one to give Un De Sceaux a race in last year’s Arkle.
Vautour’s entry in this surely, barring a fall, makes this a race to look
for e/w value. Now I know CHAMPAGNE WEST would have to find about 10lbs for
the likes of Al Ferof and Road To Riches, but this is a horse that loves
Cheltenham, and that’s worth more than a few pounds.He’s run 6 times at the course, won twice, including over C/D, been 2nd twice,
4th in the Albert Bartlet and on his other run in January this year, he was
travelling really well and making a move when he was short of room at the 8th,
and all but fell. He immediately dropped to the rear, and was pulled up by Richard
Johnson when it was obvious his chanc had gone.He’s 66/1 with plenty firms, or 40/1 with Paddy Power 4 places. I’m definitely
having a go here, and I’ll happily drop a few points to take advantage of that
4th place. This is a very decent horse, how they can price him so high I really
don’t knowSurely the even money around for Vautour this morning is an absolute gift!
He’s miles clear of the current 3rd and 4th favourites on all known form and is still on an upward curve…
They say Road To Riches is better on better ground but the last time he encountered good ground he couldn’t even beat the specialist two miler Sizing Europe (at 12 years old) over 2 and a half miles in receipt of 4lbs…
Surely he’s an absolute steering job…has well over a stone in hand….course, distance, ground all in favour…as good a jumper as there is in training…
Even if it’s to be believed that he’s 90% fit ( I don’t believe) then that’s about the same if not fitter at Kempton where he produced his best ever figure on a course he didn’t look happy at and on winter ground he’s not keen on…
How does he not win this?
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