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What a world away from racing elsewhere in the world. Im in New Zealand at the mo and went to the Waikato Times GOld Cup at Te Rapa racecourse on their biggest racemeeting of the year a couple of weeks ago. Free to get in, 26 degree sunshine, and a quid for a beer. Great stuff. Plus anyone can go into the owners enclosure ‘clothing permitting’ and you can even walk stright into the stables as the horses are gettign prepped!!!. Doesnt say much for security but great experience.
Thias may sound silly but surely isnt the answer to introduce 0-50 handicaps for £2000. OK its low grade fodder but I dont think the owners of real low grade horses would mind running for a couple of grand.
I think they should be made an example of, surely to say ‘we are doing something about it’ but come on, lets be fair. We now live in a world where well over tens of thousands of pounds is being wagered, quite easily on the exchanges on races worth a couple of grand. If you have a 5/1 ish chance going for a £2000 prize, THEORETICALLY you can either try and win the race, and the prizemoney, or just lay it for £10000, become a blatant non trier and make £2000 anyway. Now dont ask me how you make a non-trier, because it isnt my field, and I did say theoretically. I know what is easier, and more certain
just thought this was worth bringing to the front. Have a read of my post on March 28th then look at the last race at Warwick. Makes interesting reading
I feel really bad for saying this but I find Tanya Stephenson totally devoid of character and I cringe when she talks to camera because she always seems soooo nervous. I thought well give her a month or two but shes still the same incredibly nervous person she was 2 month ago. Not funny, not witty, never gives a valid point in race analysis and only seems to be on the programme because she can use the computer! At least shes quite pretty! :biggrin:
The most feared trainer in British racing by a country mile and the only man I would poop myself taking a bet off is Barney Curley. The man is a genious and greater still, no-one including god has a clue how he works. He hasnt had a British winner since October 2000 (24 runners in 2001, not one backed, not one placed) but did have a gambled on winner in Ireland (Kalingalinga who had a previous lifetime best of 5th and went off 5/4 in a 20 runner handicap and won by a mile). Dont let that fool you. He is giving up the game to concentrate on hes charity work in Zambia but I’d bet my life he’ll have one big punt before he goes. If one of his runners shortens, get on relentless. It is usually a former Irish horse whose form in the UK has declined to a featherweight mark in a handicap. Cabo Salinas has all these trademarks and is the horse in his yard I see him most likely to do a job with. Keep an eye on all his runners in the market.
I’d probably have to say I’m with Georoid on this one. It was well publicised before the race that Isty can have a lot of ‘off’ days now he is getting on a bit. The way I see it, O’Brien probably thought that if he was having a ‘going’ day, eg. reacted to the roar and got the old adrenaline pumping he could do it again. As it turns out he didn’t, I and many others done their cash but i DONT think it was a conspiracy.
Oh and one other thing. Daylight has made some superb and very accurate statements in this thread, and i am behind him 100%. All of the people who have been on the mathematical side of gambling, have ALL sided with betting win only in nearly all instances. I have seen NO mathematical evidence for betting E/W ahead of win by anyone on this thread, apart from the instances i mentioned earlier. If anyone would like to supply me some figures to prove me otherwise then feel free! And plesae no-one come up with the bollocks that betting isnt mathematical and being about ‘getting a return when you otherwise wouldnt have gotten one’. I wont even read it. If you want to know why, read my above thread.
PS sorry if I sound quite angry but I feel incredibly strongly on this
I feel very strongly on the subject of each way betting. It can be sumed up very simply. If you believe the chance of your horse getting placed is greater than a fifth of the odds non handicaps, or 1/4 in handicaps, then punt it. The amount of times this happens though is very slim. Only ever when theres 16+ in a handicap (where you have fair odds 1/4 odds for 4 places) OR and most profitable, a skewed market.
Around 6 month ago there was a conditions stakes where the betting was<br>Horse A – 4/7<br>Horse B – 2/1<br>Horse C – 11/2<br>Horses D to M – 100/1 or bigger.
I thought horse C (sorry dont remember the name) had a roughly a fair chance of winning, about a 5/1 shot but its chance of getting placed was closer 1/8 or 1/10 simply due to the race make up because apart from injury or a very freak result, those 3 would fill the places. I had the biggest bet of my life on horse C and only got 5% profit on my investment, but it was a free bet on the win. OK it didnt win but I know if I bet E/W on races like that, I’d garuntee to be comfortably in profit after 20 or 30 races. The only problem is finding freak races such as that.
If you dont agree, put yourself in the bookies position,. Would you like to lay a bet like that on a race like that?
As for people who like betting E/W in races where there are less than 16 runners have a look at this
<br>Punter A and Punter B have 100 bets in a year. They have 10 winners a year all at 10/1, they have 10 horses finish 2nd and 10 horses finish 3rd, roughly the percentage youd expect. Only difference is that Punter A places £5 E/W every race and Punter B prefers to bet £10 win. The maths are as follows –
Punter A – win bets – Placed £500 in total, returned £550 (£55×10)<br> place bets – Placed £500 in total, returned £525 (£17.50×30)
total staked = £1000.<br>total profit = £75
Punter B – win bets – Placed £1000 in total, returned £1100
total profit = £100
<br>As you can see, even off identical results, and predictable place percentage, you’d lose out on £25 and thats only betting fivers and tenners. The ton and grand punters would be chucking away £250 and £2500 respectively.
E/W betting in races under 16 runners IS a con, UNLESS you are clever with it, as I mentioned further up. Dont let the theives rob you.
Hi everyone.<br>Great topic by the way. I have to say, the prson I have agreed with more on in this topic is James. I agree with him 100% on the value issue. I have had a stinking run recently on Max Punts. Im an infrequent poster, probably on average only once a fortnight. But I post these bets because I believe the RP forecast, which is the only guide I have, is around about 10% incorrect over 10/1, 15% wrong under 10/1 but over 2/1 and 20% under 2/1. When I say this, I mean if a horse is 20/1 in the post (5%) and I have it in at 6’s, I make that roughly a 11% difference so i bet it. Same again, if I price up a horse at 4/6 (60%) and the post has it at 7/4 (37%), it goes in as a Max, therefore even accounting for some error on my part which is inevitable where form is envolved, I wil always have some sort of edge. I know its long winded and after about 15 maximums and a very poor run, Im about 1 point down on bets posted on here thanks to 2 lame horses and a faller. But, because I have so much confidence in my system, I am cetain that come lets say June, Ill be showing healthy profit. Just my 2 pence worth:cool: :biggrin: ;)
