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Id have thought they might wait 3 weeks and go for Aintree again with him, the Champion Hurdle would seem a no, and Nicholls has said he is running Big Bucks (if fit), Celestial Halo and Salubrious, can’t see him running Zarkandar swell personally.
Yeah agree. Ironically it might be the Mullins trained Un Des Seaux that could set the race up as a truly run race, which I believe will make things a whole lot more difficult for Hurricane Fly. He has made all in his last 2 runs and a repeat of these tactics will make for a fantastic renewal of the race.
I just can’t see that NTD has anything good enough to do the job, you could argue Mad Moose on some of his flat form but it would be an absolute no starter (no pun intended!!). Maybe Im missing a horse but nothing seems to be an obvious candidate for the job. You’d still need a touch of class to do it properly.
My take is that they went off far too fast (countrywide flame lit up by first time head gear) and they had no chance of sustaining the pace and it collapsed, I would point to the top speed of Hurricane fly which was 135 which is the lowest that a winner has needed to record to win the race in the last10 years (135,167,149,163,153,157,145,173,152,155)
I would consider and I think I’m not alone in this that the TS needs to be within 7lbs of the RPR (i.e. Rock on Ruby recorded an official rating of 170 and TS of 167 and RPR of 171, when beating the fly)
Its one thing quickening off a modest or slow pace but totally different doing off a truly run race. As mentioned Hurricane fly has encountered this 3 times and lost all 3 but setting the race up this way is not easy, as it proved when Overturn tried to do it for his stablemate Peddlers and didn’t go quick enough and then when Countrywide flame tried to do it last year (coz there was no recognised pace maker) and went to fast and no one on the pace could sustain it, leaving it for Hurricane fly to outstay them really (remember Ruby was very early to work on him trying to keep pace).
Hope this helps although it doesn’t make the result of the next Champion Hurdle any clearer!!!!Hurricane Fly has encountered a truly run race 3 times in his career (twice on the flat and once over hurdles) he has lost all 3.
Im sure this hasn’t escaped the others and the fact the NTD is thinking about a pacemaker suggests he believes its the best way to get him beat.
However its not as easy as just blasting off as Countrywide Flame showed last year when he went off far too fast and ended up running on fumes at the end.
If they can ensure a truly run race then I’m convinced that Hurricane Fly will be encountering his least favourable race conditions and will get beat, if they don’t go fast enough he will win again as he has done so often.
I hope that they stick with Rock on Ruby over 2 miles as he seems to need a few races to be seen at his best. If they do choose to go down the Champion Hurdle route i think that come March you will see a different horse from today. Always felt that for a horse of his age they needed to get at least another run into him in his prep last year. Whether he would have won last year even with another prep im not sure but i think it would have helped.
The new one today confirmed that he is a serious champion hurdle horse and it will be fantastic to see him run this season, fingers crossed he gets to the big one in one piece.
Absolutely agree about Cue Card and the King George. Last year the ground was far from ideal and his blunder at the start ended his chances of winning. I can see him blasting off in front this year and having them all at it turning in, I cant wait to see it, should be a great race.
West wizard given a form boost by the skyfarmer who he beat at kempton. The Skyfarmer won nicely at newton abbot by 3 lengths
Pont Alex. out for the season.
I like African Gold, record of Albert Bartlett winners and placed horse is the first place i always start for this race. He will be 6 at the festival and that age group dont have a great record in the race which is a slight concern, but ive taken the 20/1 which was available last week with 365. Id imagine NTD will get him out early and I could see him winning a soft Novice chase and then the bookies overreacting and slashing his odds to 10/1, which is the reason ive got involved now.
Rival D’Estruval is indeed being aimed at the race he will have a PTP at Alnwick later in the year then a hunter chase to qualify.
If he hadnt fallen last year he would be rated 149+ and if he ran to that mark he would win the Fox Hunters 19/20.
Beshabar is also being aimed at the race which is a bit of a surprise as he looks tailor made for the Grand National and really well treated off his current mark. I wonder if hes not quite as good as he was, or if they might try and do the double. Running in PTP to protect his mark then unleashing him on the Foxhunters at Chelt once the weights are out for the Grand National.Firstly great info and debate, I havent posted on here for a long long time keep up the good work.
I wouldnt be too quick to rule out Sir Des Champs and I think that the ground wasnt in his favour last year. Hills are offering 8/1 which im tempted by. It didnt sound like Mullins was happy with the horse for the certainly the earlier part of the season, and im not sure the horse enjoys slogging through the mud, if the ground was g/s or better i actually think he will be a huge player in this. I wouldnt be surprised to see him sent over for the king the george this year in search of better ground as I think this is going to be important from now on for him to take top honours.
Agree with all comments about Bobs Worth, and SDC has a few lengths to make up, but I wonder how much closer they pair would have been if it had been better ground and Davy Russell would have been on board (russell is 7/9 on him)The other horse im really interested in is Invictus, being out for over a year is not ideal and hopefully he gets back to his best. As mentioned Bobs Worth doesnt appear to enjoy going right handed but Invictus beat him fair and square and also Silviniaco Conti (who may not enjoy going that way round also) on his last start at Ascot and It will be interesting to see how he gets on in the Hennessy. Off a Chase rating he could literally be thrown in for that.
Mullins said after chelt this year "Next season will be all about chasing – he is electric over fences"
And the commented on 12/5/13 "He actually shcooled over fences after racing on this day last year and he flew round. By god he can jump"
So looks like he will be going chasing, which distance is the question, I think.
Personally I believe he is more likely to go the Arkle route, although in time he looks tailor-made for the Gold Cup.
Ive taken some of the 8/1 as I dont see many in the top of the market going for the race, in fact only Grandouet looks likely to me but ive heard he has unfinished business over hurdles still so even he might not be lining up.One at a bigger price that ive backed is Raya Star who is definitely going Chasing, a strongly run 2 miles over hurdles were a must to see him at his best and I believe he will out run his odds of 75/1 in the Arkle.
Different view on Cinders and Ashes really in that the only time he encountered good ground he put up by far his best performance. Not sure why but the market doesnt seem to reflect his superiority in the Supreme. I look forward to seeing if he has improved over the summer because if he has then he will be a likely winner.
Cant work out why rock on ruby is also priced up at the level he is, baffles me, not too many winners will have been double figure prices even at this stage when defending their champion hurdle crown in the last 10 years. When racing over hurdles over 2 miles or 2 miles 1f he has won every time apart from when he missed the last flight in the xmas hurdle at Kempton and was beaten a neck by Binocular. In all seriousness someone tell me why Hurricane Fly should be half the price. Very strange
Personally think that FOR NON STOP is suited by a flatter track and Cheltenham might not have played to his strengths when beaten by SIR DES CHAMPS, so think it would be dangerous to take that form literally and also lets be honest FOR NON STOP clearly has improved and trained on and will surely now as a result land a Grade 1
Bozlike, I wasnt having a go, just stating an opinion on the King George mate, Id read your previous post and understood what you were meaning.
I think that Finians will go to the King George as well and will also not have enough stamina and as a result will be diverted to the Ryanair at the festival and for that reason im keen to back him for the Ryanair if I can get a decent enough price, around 18/1 would be what I would consider taking.
