Forum Replies Created
-
Posts
-
Pontefract 19/04/11
3.40 Markington 1pt win @ 13/2Starting Bank: 50 pts
Running Total: 48 ptsWindsor 18/04/11
6.50 Elusive Hawk 1pt win @ 7/1Starting Bank: 50 pts
Running Total: 49 ptsNewbury 16/04/11
2.40 Eucharist 1 pt win @ 9/1(3rd @ 6/1)
Doncaster 16/04/11
6.15 The Rectifier 1 pt win @ 13/2(unp)
Starting Bank : 50 points
Running Total: 50 pointsNot a bad start. And a nice SP for Genki. Will stick to prices taken for the stats though.
I quite fancy Ballyholland for this too. He jumped like a dream in the national last year and just didnt get the trip. Was looked after when it became clear he wasnt gona stay and he looks to have been targetted at this.
Lovely to see him back enjoying his racing. Really did look like he could have been truly great before the head went on him.
Jeez he fair sprinted away from them. I was starting to lose the faith in him and thought he might be becoming a horse without a trip but couldnt bring myself to not back him.
Champion Hurdle
This should be the race of the meeting, possibly the decade. There is a realistic case to be made for all of the first 7 in the betting. Menorah showed he has guts as well as speed with a brilliant weight carrying performance in the Greatwood Hurdle earlier this year and easily dispatched top novices Cue Card and Silvanico Conti in the International hurdle. The flip side is both the above appear stayers in the making and he has yet to beat a rival that could be considered a realistic contender for this race. Similarily Mille Chief won a good handicap under a big weight but struggled home against a horse who wouldnt be near this class next time out. Oscar Whiskey is a tad unlucky in that he probably falls between stools and ideally wants 2m4f.
Dunguib was last years talking horse but his poor hurdling and a ‘funny’ ride saw him come up short. His comeback run although not that impressive to the eye, if you take Luska Lad as a yardstick (usually gives his running) the form is not that far off what Hurricane Fly has shown this year and he may be a lively outsider.
Binocular is an enigma. He was impressive last year although the race looked to lack depth and he has never run a bad race at the festival. Ive a feeling he’s never had to deal with the likes of the 2 potential superstars in the field this year.
Hurricane Fly has the effortless look of a champion about. Fragile but brilliant he’s the winner of 9 out of his 11 races over hurdles. Most in the top grade. Of his two defeats ,one came when a novice in his native France and the other when returning from a long layoff and even then it was a respectable 3rd in a Grade 1. Has yet to face this kind of a test but everything in his makeup and breeding suggest he should relish it(Group winning son of Montjeu over staying trips on flat).Will take something very special to beat him.
That could very well be Peddlers Cross. As yet unbeaten over a variety of trips from 2m to 2m5f. Looked a certain future stayer when a gutsy winner of the 2m5 novice at last years festival beating the experienced Reve De Siviola and Ascot Gold Cup winner Rite of Passage. He returned this year over 2m and proved he is at least equally effective over that trip slamming reigning champ Binocular and Starluck under conditions more suited to speed than stamina. Not overly impressive in a bloodless prep win although he’s not the type to noticeably quicken and just keeps pulling out more off the bridle. If he kicks for home early off the turn the rest are in serious trouble as it’ll take a tough customer to peg him back.Selection: Peddlers Cross
R F/C Peddlers Cross/Hurricane Fly
Thought Peddlers would outbattle him but The Fly looks the real deal. Binny woulda been beat here too imo.
Champion Chase
Master Minded certainly looks to be back in some kind of form but the air of invincibility is gone from him and the rather lucky defeat of Somersby highlighted his vulnerability to any kind of improver. Readily overlooked at cramped odds here as its doubtful he’ll ever truly regain his former glory and besides this may be the strongest field he’s faced to date anyway.
Last years winner Big Zeb looks to hold every chance again and he seems a completely different horse from the novice that was fond of uprooting the odd fence. I wouldnt be worried by the defeat by Golden Siver last time out as he was probably in front for too long. A favourites chance.
Somersby and Sizing Europe, last years Arkle 1-2 are both similar types in that the Ryanair is possibly the ideal race for both. It would take a suicidal pace up front (possibly self created) to bring either of them into the equation although you couldnt rule out that scenario. Would fancy Sizing as the better of the 2.
Captain Cee Bee just doesnt look good enough for this level and has had too many excuses made for him in the past.
Woolcombe Folly is perhaps the most interesting horse in the field and he comes here as a big improver. He carried a big weight to victory in an excellent time last time out and he looks a 2 miler of some potential.Selection : Woolcombe Folly @ 8/1
Sizing Europe @ 8/1
Split StakesRSA Chase
The Gold Cup for novice chasers. Has regained status after gainig a bad reputation for leaving its mark on young horses. It remains a serious test of jumping and staying ability that requires a very tough animal to succeed.
Time For Rupert has long been favourite for this and while he’s made a decent start to his chasing career, the feeling is he’s being rated on his hurdling form and proximity to Big Bucks in last years World Hurdle(never looked liked winning). At 9/4 its a potential winner I wont be upset to let go.
AitennThirtyThree has improved dramatically for the switch to fences and should be a fine type for staying chases in future. While he’s yet to fall though he has a tendency to take a chance at some of his fences and thats a very risky proposition in this race.
Wymott has a similar profile to last years runner up Burton Port but has yet to run at the track(major negative for non Irish contenders).
Jessies Dream would have to prove he truely gets the trip having looked outstayed over 2m6 recently.
Mikael D’Haguenet looks to have gone sour and I wouldnt back him with someone elses money at the minute.
In Bostons Angel and Quito De La Roque there are two stayers straight out of the Weapons Amnesty mould and you would think ideal for this race particularly if the ground was testing on the day. Both wil ideally want further in time though and you’d worry about the pace if the ground was decent.
Wayward Prince remains a horse of enormous potential as former Grade 1 winner at 3m over hurdles and a course and distance winner over fences here earlier this year. His only defeats have come on soft ground so would be a swerve on that but he should go well at a nice price in an open race.Selection : Wayward Prince @ 12/1 (if Gd/Sft or better)
Quito De La Roque (if Soft)Champion Hurdle
This should be the race of the meeting, possibly the decade. There is a realistic case to be made for all of the first 7 in the betting. Menorah showed he has guts as well as speed with a brilliant weight carrying performance in the Greatwood Hurdle earlier this year and easily dispatched top novices Cue Card and Silvanico Conti in the International hurdle. The flip side is both the above appear stayers in the making and he has yet to beat a rival that could be considered a realistic contender for this race. Similarily Mille Chief won a good handicap under a big weight but struggled home against a horse who wouldnt be near this class next time out. Oscar Whiskey is a tad unlucky in that he probably falls between stools and ideally wants 2m4f.
Dunguib was last years talking horse but his poor hurdling and a ‘funny’ ride saw him come up short. His comeback run although not that impressive to the eye, if you take Luska Lad as a yardstick (usually gives his running) the form is not that far off what Hurricane Fly has shown this year and he may be a lively outsider.
Binocular is an enigma. He was impressive last year although the race looked to lack depth and he has never run a bad race at the festival. Ive a feeling he’s never had to deal with the likes of the 2 potential superstars in the field this year.
Hurricane Fly has the effortless look of a champion about. Fragile but brilliant he’s the winner of 9 out of his 11 races over hurdles. Most in the top grade. Of his two defeats ,one came when a novice in his native France and the other when returning from a long layoff and even then it was a respectable 3rd in a Grade 1. Has yet to face this kind of a test but everything in his makeup and breeding suggest he should relish it(Group winning son of Montjeu over staying trips on flat).Will take something very special to beat him.
That could very well be Peddlers Cross. As yet unbeaten over a variety of trips from 2m to 2m5f. Looked a certain future stayer when a gutsy winner of the 2m5 novice at last years festival beating the experienced Reve De Siviola and Ascot Gold Cup winner Rite of Passage. He returned this year over 2m and proved he is at least equally effective over that trip slamming reigning champ Binocular and Starluck under conditions more suited to speed than stamina. Not overly impressive in a bloodless prep win although he’s not the type to noticeably quicken and just keeps pulling out more off the bridle. If he kicks for home early off the turn the rest are in serious trouble as it’ll take a tough customer to peg him back.Selection: Peddlers Cross
R F/C Peddlers Cross/Hurricane Fly
Arkle Chase
This has a tendency to go to the top rated hurdler and with Medermit looking at least as good over fences as he was over hurdles and showing a marked liking for the course he’s certainly a worthy favourite here and it would prob just be nitpicking to look for excuses to see him beaten. Of the dangers Fintans Rainbow and Ghizao have looked impressive on occasion over fences but to envisage them beating Medermit, you would have to assume either A) Either or both have improved some 20 lbs plus for the transition to fences or B) Medermit will fail to run a mark anywhere near 150+ on the day. Similar remarks apply to most of the field. The one fly in the ointment for me is if the ground came up really soft, Realt Dubh has to be worth a saver as he’s game,jumps accurately and always gives his running although he’ll probably get done a bit for toe on livelier ground.
Selection: Medermit @ 11/4
Hey lads. New to the site. Heres my thoughts on the Supreme Novices.
Supreme Novices Hurdle
Favourite Cue Card looks very short here at under 3/1 in a race full of potential. Fair enough if you fancy Menorah for the Champion Hurdle(I don’t) you would be hopeful of a big run but he already looks to want further. Willie Mullins has been targetting Zaidpour at this for a while but again he might need further and doesnt hurdle with the fluency required for the pace they’ll go here(remember Dunguib last year). So Young would be of interest if rerouting here but looks like he is heading to the 2m5 race the following day. Of Nicky Hendersons two I think Barry may have picked the wrong one. While Spirit Son has been very impressive in both outings over hurdles they have been on very soft ground and he has to prove as effective on a quicker surface. Sprinter Sacre is the one I’d be most interested in. He has looked an awkward ride in his last 3 starts despite winning 2 quite easily(pulled hard throughout before quickening off a slow pace). He looks to posess plenty of speed though and as he has seemed in the past to want to go a bit faster the stronger pace he should get here can only help. Of the others Recession Proof is tough and genuine and comes the same route as Get Me Out Of Here last year. It should be borne in mind though that GMOOH won off a much higher mark and it looked a better race.
Selection: Sprinter Sacre @ 10/1
