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Big Zeb now looks a great bet @ 3/1
He is the stand out horse not masterminded
Place lay of masterminded could be in order. Woolcombe folly is the best of PN this year.
Ii wholeheartedly concur with this. I think MM is vulnerable and when push comes to shove he could be found wanting – perhaps he has passed his peak.
Big Zeb is in his prime and the record of champs retaining their crown is a good one.
The defeat against Golden Silver (who I backed when well stuffed by BZ previously
) should not be given much credence. Zeb will love the fast pace and can come to the last swinging and out battle any cheeky contenders.Certainly, at 100/30 (Toteshit) he is the E/W steal of the meeting.
I’m having £20 E/W next week on payday as I’ll only lose about £3 squids if he’s placed. If I were a tad more flush I’d have £50 squids E/W – my biggest bet ever! (Holy crap, Zip!)
I will see how funds go.
I think there is EVERY chance Zeb will be backed in to fav on the day by those patriotic oirish.
Two horse race?
Zip
As I mentioned previously on this thread I was hoping HK would see sense but it appears not. I would describe somersby going for this instead of the ryanair as a ridiculous decision. i would have him at 33/1 whereas he would be a clear favourite for the ryanair in my book. Of course i’m no bookie!
Cannot understand why Tataniano is going for the Queen Mother, save him for Aintree.
As I mentioned previously on this thread I was hoping HK would see sense but it appears not. I would describe somersby going for this instead of the ryanair as a ridiculous decision.
i would have him at 33/1
whereas he would be a clear favourite for the ryanair in my book.
Of course i’m no bookie!
I’m happy that Mad Max is going for the Queen Mother, i thought he ran a great race in The Arkle last year until he made the one and only error of his race, which stopped any chance of him getting near to Sizing Europe.
Should run well, going to wear ear plugs too!
Golden Silver still makes plenty of appeal. I think the hold up tactics employed against Big Zeb at Punchestown put a huge piece of his jigsaw together. Possesses bags of speed and that speed I feel is best used for a finish rather than burning too much of it early as he doesn’t exactly have an abundance of stamina, I think Mullins would be mad to race him in the Ryanair he’ll be finished by 2 out. I can see him produced late in the Champion and chasing down MM and Big Zeb, 12/1 currently looks outstanding I’d make him half that.
Here comes Big Zeb to gobble up Master Minded and co…
He’s going to be favourite on the day, isn’t he?
What’s wrong with MM?
Zip
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Just my view, Zip, but the way MM folded at the end of his last race suggests the recurrence of his wind problem? Certainly couldn’t back him to see out a Champion Chase on that form; no matter how much his trainer tries to convince us he wasn’t fit, he’d performed a lot better in the same race previously.
I think the Irish will pile into Big Zeb, he will go off 15/8 with Master Minded 7/2 2f.
I gotta agree with you guys, Big Zeb will be favourite on the day.
Reet, you may be right about MM – I’m not sure he’s the horse he was. Question is – how near to his scintillating 1st Champion Chase victory would he have to be to win this? I don’t think his performance to win his 2nd will be good enough come Wed.
I get the feeling he may disappoint and then Nicholls will suddenly tell us why he thought he may not be 100 percent/as good as he was!
Zip
Master Minded and Big Zeb go head-to head in this race for the third time in as many years, with the score currently even.
Master Minded secured his second Champion Chase as a mere 6YO two years ago, where Big Zeb departed company with Robert Thornton at the fourth last when travelling well.
Big Zeb, whose career has been blighted by a series of costly errors, finally got his act together when landing the spoils twelve months ago, with a below-par Master Minded back in fourth.
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Since
Big Zeb
came so agonizingly close to lowering the colours of the dual Champion Chase hero at Punchestown in April 2009, it was obvious that a major threat to the seemingly invincible champion had been found.
The ability has never been questioned, yet inconsistencies in the jumping department always threatened to curtail a career which promised so much. There was only one man who had never parted company with the horse over obstacles, and connections reached out to him after Big Zeb’s fall in the Champion Chase two years ago.
Successful on eight of the thirteen occasions he has ridden the horse, with the sole blip being a lacklustre effort in the 2009 Tingle Creek, Barry Geraghty has been the major contributing factor to the success of Big Zeb.
His smooth reappearance at Navan was followed by a workmanlike victory at Leopardstown, before an unlikely defeat at the hoofs of old rival, Golden Silver, in the Tied Cottage at the end of January. He was left in front earlier than expected that day and it’s not hard seeing him reverse the form at Cheltenham.
He has developed into something of an assured jumper theses days, but there’s still that niggling doubt in the back of my mind that his tendency to hit the odd fence or two is lying dormant, rather than extinct. He is surely booked for a place – at the very least – if he puts in another flawless round of jumping, but One Man was the last 10YO to win the race back in 1998, and only one horse has since claimed victory at an advanced stage – the great Moscow Flyer was eleven when reclaiming his crown back in 2006.
Master Minded
gave every indication that the old flame still burned bright with two commanding efforts at Ascot and Cheltenham, where he secured his second Tingle Creek.
It was surely a great sight for every racing enthusiast to see the dual champion back on form after a disappointing effort at The Festival last year. Many had written him off after the display, but a combination of a fractured rib, which kept him off the track for three months until his impressive Newbury success in February, and the potential ’bounce factor’ gave hope that there were valid excuses for his performance that day.
It was hard to imagine how the horse could be in decline after such a commanding display to land his second Game Spirit just four weeks earlier.
His Ascot return told us that the majority of his old ability remained intact, but the acid test would be Cheltenham in December for the rearranged Tingle Creek, where some new challengers awaited, including recent course winner Gauvain and Arkle third, Somersby.
It was a performance of the highest calibre. Gone is the raw, no fear approach which typified his first Champion Chase demolition as 5YO, but that has been replaced by a new flawless, professional attitude. Whilst many looked ill at ease at some stage of the contest, including Somersby, Master Minded coasted round before effortlessly catching the leaders around the final bend and pulling clear with two impressive leaps in the straight.
A P McCoy was reunited with the horse for the first time since their 2008 Tingle Creek success for the Victor Chandler Chase, which Master Minded had won twelve months earlier. Again, whilst many of the field were struggling down the side of the track, Master Minded was arguably travelling too well and AP allowed him to take control of the race five out. It proved to be a near costly error of judgement, as Somersby nearly collared them on the line after Master Minded looked assured of success turning in.
I have seen this occur many times at Ascot. It’s a track that, like Sandown and Kempton, places emphasis on rhythm. Chase fields are so often well strung out at this venue because if you’re taken out of your comfort zone and don’t get into a rhythm, you’re going to struggle. Consequently, a horse is often invited to go a shade faster than they should if going well. All, except Master Minded, were being niggled at down the side of the course, placing pressure on their jumping. A P felt he had them cooked at this stage and allowed his horse to bowl along. In hindsight, this was the wrong decision.
It is my opinion that Somersby was somewhat flattered by his proximity to Master Minded that day. The Tingle Creek form is a more informative guideline and if Master Minded is in that type of form, it will take a performance out of the very top drawer to beat him.
Somersby
has been a model of consistency since his career began, with only one unplaced effort in thirteen races. He has been placed at The Festival on his previous two visits – third behind Go Native in the 2009 Supreme, and second behind Sizing Europe in the Arkle last year.
It has been a noticeable and worrying trait that the horse has a tendency to hit a flat spot during his races. It happened at a similar stage during both the Arkle last season and the rearranged Tingle Creek at the same venue in December. The eventual third looked in trouble turning in before staying on up the hill.
Whilst his career has been defined by consistency, he has only managed to secure four wins in thirteen starts and has not tasted success in five outings since his Henry VIII success at Sandown in 2009. There is no reason why he should reverse Arkle form with Sizing Europe, who was left in front earlier than expected after a bad mistake by Mad Max at the third last, and the decision to run the horse in this contest (as opposed to the Ryanair) has apparently been based on personal rather than professional reasons, with Henrietta Knight stating "The fact is that Mrs Radford is ill at the moment and is having chemotherapy on Thursday next week, so he will run on Wednesday so that she can come and see him."
Sizing Europe
is arguably the forgotten horse of the race.
He has been called many names in the past and had his detractors en route to Cheltenham last year, but he remained unbeaten in novice company before a creditable third at Punchestown against senior rivals.
He was left in front earlier than expected in the Arkle and was perhaps idling when Somersby and Osana came back at him up the hill. He travelled supremely well during the contest and his jumping was flawless. In my opinion, he was better value than the winning margin suggests.
He has been competing with much distinction of longer trips this season and posted a fine effort back over two miles last time out. Connections were disappointed with his effort that day, but the horse has since been the subject of good reports by his trainer and it’s quite telling that connections have decided to run him in such a competitive race instead of the Ryanair, which is clearly a weaker event.
Woolcombe Folly
has been the surprise package of the season, elevating himself from a mark of 142 to the fourth highest rated horse in the race.
Another horse with a solid, consistent record, Woolcombe Folly has either won or been placed in thirteen of his fifteen starts. His effort in the Arkle last year can be best ignored after he took a nasty fall at home a mere week before the race.
His course triumph in December was 0.5seconds quicker than that of stablemate Master Minded, who won his second Tingle Creek on the same card off the same weight. I, for one, have never been convinced that time represents an accurate portrayal of superiority and Woolcombe Folly will need to raise his game once more to be a realistic threat. As an 8YO this isn’t beyond the realms of possibility, but I think he could fine a few too good on this occasion.
Captain Cee Bee is loaded with talent, but for various reasons is not one to place complete faith in, while Golden Silver has twice been disappointing at this venue. Mad Max would have live place claims based on his commendable effort in the Arkle last year, when a mistake at the third last cost him a place, but he will more than likely find a few too good over a trip arguably short of his best.
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I started this thread back in July of last year, citing Master Minded as value at 6/1 and Sizing Europe a major contender, although far from impressed with the 7/1 on offer at that stage. If the dual champion is in the same form which saw him land his second Tingle Creek, he will take all the beating. Big Zeb is sure to push him all the way if putting in another clear round, while Sizing Europe should not be ignored and I have taken the 10/1 on offer. I am not a forecast player, but a Master Minded / Sizing Europe SFC is tempting.
1 MASTER MINDED
2 SIZING EUROPE
3 BIG ZEBDisagree re:Somersby.
Tactics will be different this year as opposed to last. He could easily have the beating of Sizing. The ground was the concern for him about running in the Ryanair but they’ve watered and will ensure safe ground. All his runs this year bar the Ascot run deserve forgiveness. He was unfit first time where Nichols horses were primed and he keeled over at Cheltenham as well as running too far behind for his ability(pace). He missed those fences because of the incident earlier and without any mishaps before the race he’ll be in the first three come Wednesday.
MM, Sizing, Somersby.
Willing to take on the Big Zeb not to be placed.
Just like the Irish propery boom, were gonna have a bunch of suckers investing in something that has no value and peaked years ago. (Didn’t have to peak last yr as everything else fell away!)Somersby was flattered to get so close to Masterminded last time, Paul Nichols adimitted MM was not fully primed for that race.
Big Zeb won last years race by default, won’t be winning it as a 10 year old.
Sizing Europe needs everything to go his way, if he gets headed he downs tools.
Woolcombe Folly is the main danger to Masterminded
"jmfitz" wrote: Just like the Irish propery boom, were gonna have a bunch of suckers investing in something that has no value and peaked years ago. (Didn’t have to peak last yr as everything else fell away!)
Big Zeb did not peak years ago, he’s better now than he ever was. The stable couldn’t believe it when he actually strengthened up a tonne over the summer and improved from last season to this.
He hasn’t been fully wound up yet this year and make no mistake he is the one they all have to beat.
Champion Chase
Master Minded certainly looks to be back in some kind of form but the air of invincibility is gone from him and the rather lucky defeat of Somersby highlighted his vulnerability to any kind of improver. Readily overlooked at cramped odds here as its doubtful he’ll ever truly regain his former glory and besides this may be the strongest field he’s faced to date anyway.
Last years winner Big Zeb looks to hold every chance again and he seems a completely different horse from the novice that was fond of uprooting the odd fence. I wouldnt be worried by the defeat by Golden Siver last time out as he was probably in front for too long. A favourites chance.
Somersby and Sizing Europe, last years Arkle 1-2 are both similar types in that the Ryanair is possibly the ideal race for both. It would take a suicidal pace up front (possibly self created) to bring either of them into the equation although you couldnt rule out that scenario. Would fancy Sizing as the better of the 2.
Captain Cee Bee just doesnt look good enough for this level and has had too many excuses made for him in the past.
Woolcombe Folly is perhaps the most interesting horse in the field and he comes here as a big improver. He carried a big weight to victory in an excellent time last time out and he looks a 2 miler of some potential.Selection : Woolcombe Folly @ 8/1
Sizing Europe @ 8/1
Split StakesVictor Chandler are offering a free bet money back if your horse comes second or third. Normally these offers are accompanied by cramped odds but at present you can get 7/2 on Master M.
Forget form study – the odds are well in your favour here. I guess you could bet on lots of horses in the race but that might be termed abuse of the offer so be careful.
) should not be given much credence. Zeb will love the fast pace and can come to the last swinging and out battle any cheeky contenders.
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