[AlyshebaFan]

We don’t get nearly as much of this sport in the USA as you do but the ones we do get are attended very well and there is for the most part no parimutual betting for the jump races. One more reason it’s probably not as fashionable as flat racing. A lot of racing fans that I know love the sport of racing. However I would say the majority don’t watch this type of racing and there are some that outright dispise it because they feel it’s too much of a risk and we have enough breakdowns already without obsticles involved. I can understand their reasonings but I have to say that the horses that go over jumps that I’ve seen anyway are far fitter than those that race on the flat. Especially the timber horses. They will race at a slower pace, but have to be precise jumpers and a lot of those races are 2-4 miles long. Sometimes with fences between 3-5ft (The Maryland Hunt Cup has one this tall). I’ve made the case before that if a horse in a timber or hurdle race is in distress or just not fit enough to make it around the jockey will ease the horse. If they did this in flat races they would be ridiculed for it not only by the owner and trainer but also the bettors. I think for the most part the jockeys I’ve seen do right by the mount. Again we don’t usually have the parimutuals too. Even the meets that do have it they still do right by them. One thing that I do have to say is that these horses by far are looked on (at least here) as family and treated very well. That is far more than I can say for a lot of flat racers.

[AlyshebaFan]

Good heavens it’d be nice for the BC website to actually post the fields in full! Can’t find them anywhere.

Any ideas?

Here ya go.

Friday’s Card:
http://www.equibase.com/static/entry/OSA110609USA-EQB.html

Saturday’s Card:
http://www.equibase.com/static/entry/OSA110709USA-EQB.html

You can get profiles of the horses here:
http://www.bloodhorse.com/

Just go scroll down to Breeder’s Cup Divisions, click on the race and the horse’s names are highlighted.

[AlyshebaFan]

Crazy post draws

Goldikova gets gate 11 of 11 (You really want a low draw to get round quick on the first turn)

Unsuprisingly Zensational gets stall 1 which will play to his speed-ball tactics no end.

It’s a fix

LOLOL You know Lure pulled the outside post in his second win in the Mile. He was just the best horse on the day. I think if Goldikova runs to her talent she should be okay. She has a good turn of foot when needed. Zensational getting the 1 hole. Wow. Yeah that’s lucky. The others are going to have to put in a top performance to catch him.

[AlyshebaFan]

Bob Baffert says the track is playing more like dirt this year due to it being a year older and the ammount of water they’re putting on it.

The Americans ain’t making much out of it though becuase they love a good excuse.

I think that’s silly. It’s synthetic. It’s going to play like what it is. That’s like saying concrete is playing like mud. We don’t need an excuse. If a horse doesn’t run on it that has run on it before and gets beaten then that is because they were not the best horse on that day. Indian Blessing likes dirt more than synthetic and will run as best she can on this stuff. Ventura and Informed Decision like it very much and will run accordingly. If Indian Blessing loses then what will be his excuse for her? That the dirtlike synthetic suddenly became dryer and reverted back to it’s original form? Or did she get beaten because someone who has beaten her already on the stuff ran better? This should be interesting.

[AlyshebaFan]

Three horses are already out.

Kodiak Kowboy (a big sprint contender)
Allicansayis Wow (Filly & Mare Sprint)
Dave In Dixie (Juvenile)

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/53250/three-horses-withdrawn-from-breeders-cup?utm_source=BreakingNews&utm_medium=email

[AlyshebaFan]

Intriguing. What does a lesbian piano look like, and how does one play it?

I’ve never seen one so I’m guessing but you probably would stroke the keys rather than pound on them. Sorry, couldn’t let that get by.

[AlyshebaFan]

I was reading somewhere that the Americans reckon Zenyatta will start a short priced favourite and Rip Van Winkle will kick off around 4/1 or even 5/1 because of the local support for the unbeaten filly.

That’s difficult to imagine but when you consider Raven’s Pass (8/1) paid $29 for a $2 stake, Conduit (7/2) $13.60 for $2, Donatovium (11/2) $13.6 for $2 Goldikova (9/4) $5.6 for $2

But Zeyatta who paid $3 for a $2 stake was returned 7/10 here, clearly shows how differently they can see things.

I’m think we can access the American PMU through Betfair but I’m unsure of deductions but if the weight of American money for Zenyatta is going to push Rip Van Winkle out would it not make perfect sense to back both home and away or am I missing something?

I think that will be the case if she goes. She will be the favorite. The BC is in her backyard. All of her races this year and most of her races last year were in CA. People at SA have seen her time and time again. She’s a fan favorite and there are tons of bettors out there that will get $2 win tickets to keep as keepsakes or to resell them on Ebay should she win. I’ve backed horses only to keep the ticket. I did it twice with Rachel Alexandra and once with Summer Bird this year. If you like RVW and can get the US price on him then do so. He may even go off the third choice behind Summer Bird. That’s more dicey than having him behind Zenyatta but it

could

happen. After all this is the place that let Arcangues get away at over 100-1.

[AlyshebaFan]

Thanks for that. I’m turning my attentions stateside after the Melbourne Cup next Tuesday, so I’ll have a look at those sites, in addition to the Breeders’ Cup.

Edit: Sorry Alli, only just noticed your name. Didn’t want to refer to you as AlyshebaFan or AF, so used nothing.

Aly, Alli, AF… I prettymuch will answer to anything. Oh BTW, Pierrot Lunaire is going to a training flat on Pennsylvania Hunt Cup day this Sunday. If the weather cooperates I will be attending this and will take some photos of him.

[AlyshebaFan]

Golden Jubilee runner-up Cannonball trained on the Downhill Turf course and didn’t seem to like crossing over the main track-unlike Canadian Ballet.

That isn’t good. I really like him for that race but if he does that in the afternoon, that will be it. Those horses are too fast for anyone to hesitate.

If you see any of Graham Motion’s horses work let me know how they look Pengamon. He’s got 2 in the Juvinile Fillies Turf. It’ll be interesting to see if Bullsbay will like the going. Cherokee Artist has won on it already.

[AlyshebaFan]

I’ve taken Ladbrokes’ 6/1 Zenyatta. Just too big to resist. I am sure RVW is a better horse than her and if I thought he would run to his Eclipse/Sussex form then I wouldn’t look to oppose him. But AOB’s record with horses at this time of the year is enough to make me oppose him.

You won’t get anywhere near 6-1 on Zenyatta in the US no matter what race she goes in. Good call. She’s in the biggest race of her life and she’s going to have to leave it all on the table if she goes in the classic. This will be her last race and if they want any shot at Horse Of The Year she has to go in this race. Winning the Filly and Mare Classic would not be enough to beat Rachel Alexandra for the title.

[AlyshebaFan]

The pre entries are up. Two more added to the Classic field. Chocolate Candy and Twice Over.

http://www.bloodhorse.com/pdf/2009BreedersCupPreEntries.pdf

[AlyshebaFan]

Girolamo confuses me. He has had only six starts in his career. By AP Indy out of a Mr. Prospector mare, he could get the distance. He showed flashes of brilliance in the Jerome but he didn’t really beat anyone significant. Kensei finished third to him and he is a grade two winner at best. The second horse was making up some ground in the end and I would have to say he’s biting off more than he can chew in the Classic. I would have opted for the dirt mile if I had him. Plus the Jerome was a one turn mile as opposed to a two turn mile and a quarter for the Classic. Honestly, I would not choose him to win. I think he will get some play but I would steer clear. The Jerome was impressive yes, but he didn’t beat much.

[AlyshebaFan]

California Flag, albeit the current 4/1 favourite for the turf sprint, is an exceptional front running American horse and if CF gets a decent draw it could be very hard to catch him. He is the only horse this season to run a sub 22secs first quarter down the Santa Anita hill over the 6.5f turf sprint distance and still win with his ears pricked! Pretty exceptional considering we’ve only had 3 winners from the front so far from 20 races. It’s very hard to lead all the way on that course.

Zensational is very fast but at the moment i’m favouring Gayego from the US side for the poly Sprint. Zen will go off very very fast and that may set it up for Gayego or another deep closer drawn better.

I don’t know if this is a good thing or not but I agree on both counts. California Flag has been much talked about around the scene as well as on TVG and HRTV as being the horse to catch in the Turf Sprint.

I watched Gayego run last year on the BC card though not in a BC race and I have to say he’s one damn good looker. His sire was very fast as well and finished third in the BC Sprint as a 3yo off a very, very long lay-off and I believe only one prep race. Gayego has become more seasoned and is one to watch from behind. The one thing about the BC Sprint is that these are the best sprinters around and Zensational will not have it easy on the lead which leads me to look from a horse that likes to run a bit later. If Zensational is the freak they believe him to be then fine. The main advantage he has is that this race is in his own back yard. The same goes for California Flag.

[AlyshebaFan]

I don’t think the Classic is all that weak. You can make a case for at least 5 horses here to win and there are two here that are undefeated this year. Gio Ponti is going at a mile and a quarter which is a better distance for him than the turf. Einstein and Awesome Gem can go on any surface and have shown that ability. The one horse that jumps out at me as a viable longshot is Richard’s Kid. This horse used to be here in MD where we have conventional dirt tracks. He was sold and has run out west winning a grade one and placing in others. He’s by Lemon Drop Kid out of a Broad Brush mare so he should love the distance. Mastercraftsman may go in the Dirt Mile. Zeynatta may go in the F&M Classic. In the Classic you may have:

Gio Ponti

2009 Record: (6-4-1-0)
2009 Earnings: $1,433,000
2009 Win %: 66% In-The-Money %: 83%

Summer Bird

2009 Record: (8-4-1-1)
2009 Earnings: $2,023,040
2009 Win %: 50% In-The-Money %: 75%

Rip Van Winkle

2009 Record: (5-3-1-0)
2009 Earnings: $823,093
1– Queen Elizabeth Ii S. (G1), Sussex S. (G1), 2– Coral Eclipse S. (G1)

Mastercraftsman

2009 Record: (6-3-1-1)
2009 Earnings: $922,692
1– St. James’s Palace S. (G1), Irish Two Thousand Guineas (G1), Diamond S. (G3), 2– Juddmonte International S. (G1), 3– Irish Champion S. (G1)

Zenyatta

2009 Record: (4-4-0-0)
2009 Earnings: $630,000
2009 Win %: 100% In-The-Money %: 100%

Einstein

2009 Record: (6-2-1-2)
2009 Earnings: $1,269,304
2009 Win %: 33% In-The-Money %: 83%
**

IMO the most versatile horse in the field. He has raced on synthetic, dirt and turf this year.

Quality Road

2009 Record: (6-3-2-1)
2009 Earnings: $947,030
2009 Win %: 50% In-The-Money %: 100%

Mine That Bird

2009 Record: (7-1-2-2)
2009 Earnings: $1,892,200
2009 Win %: 14% In-The-Money %: 71%
**

A better record this year than most. I think he’s better on dirt. He would need another Derby performance to pull this off.

Regal Ransom

2009 Record: (3-2-0-0)
2009 Earnings: $1,650,000
2009 Win %: 66% In-The-Money %: 66%

Colonel John

2009 Record: (3-1-1-0)
2009 Earnings: $145,182
2009 Win %: 33% In-The-Money %: 66%

Richard’s Kid

2009 Record: (10-3-1-2)
2009 Earnings: $732,840
2009 Win %: 30% In-The-Money %: 60%
**

Since moving to CA he has not been out of the money on synthetic.

Bullsbay

2009 Record: (9-3-2-1)
2009 Earnings: $712,030
2009 Win %: 33% In-The-Money %: 66%
**

A hard knocking horse who is coming into his own. He trains on the poly but I think he’s better on dirt.

Awesome Gem

2009 Record: (8-2-2-1)
2009 Earnings: $475,800
2009 Win %: 25% In-The-Money %: 62%
**

Graded stakes place on synthetic. Not sure he fits in here.

Girolamo

2009 Record: (3-3-0-0)
2009 Earnings: $150,000
2009 Win %: 100% In-The-Money %: 100%

[AlyshebaFan]

Thanks for the welcome guys. Pierrot Lunaire did unfortunately get beat in the Grand National. It was very poor going in that race and the top two finishers were Irish bred. There are several races next year he can point to in the spring. Such as

March:
The Imperial Cup (2 miles) $45k @ Aiken SC
The Carolina Cup (2 & 1/4 miles) $75k @ Camden SC

April:
Temple Gwathmey Gr3 (2 & 1/2 miles) $60k @ Middleburg VA
The Queens Cup (2 & 1/4 miles) $30k @ Mineral Springs NC

I would hope that they reinstate the Gr1 Royal Chase at Keeneland in April next year. They did not run it this year and it was the only grade one race of the spring. Hirapour, McDynamo and Good Night Shirt won that race and I was bummed when they cancelled it. It was a $150k race.

There are two very good sites we have here. One is the National Steeplechase Association site. You can get entries, results and videos there. Pierrot Lunaire’s races this year are in there if you want to watch them.
http://www.nationalsteeplechase.com/index.html

The second is Steeplechase Times website. It is run by Joe and Sean Clancy and they also cover Saratoga’s racing in the summer. A lot of top Steeplechasers run there during that meet. You can download free copies of the Steeplechase Times on that site. They also have a Pick 6 contest every year where you pick 6 horses and the top three stables win a prize at the end. I really recommend this site and the Clancy brothers are brilliant writers.

http://www.st-publishing.com/cms/

[AlyshebaFan]

Let me just start out saying I LOVE Zenyatta but she has never been tested, has run only 4 times this year and is beating up on the same group. She should go in the Classic IMO and let us see what she can truly do when she has something to run with. Okay rant over…

The one horse I truly wanted to be in this year is Rebellion(GB) who I truly adore and finished second in the dirt mile last year. He raced last on August 29 and has not worked since so I have a feeling something is awry with him and certainly at this late a stage he won’t be going to CA. It’s a shame because he LOVES the poly.

Oh BTW, the Thoroughbred Times and racing2day have a contest going and they are awarding three people with $500 to pick accumulated winners from the 2 days. There is a team USA and team Europe. After last year switching teams would not be a hard thing to do. LOLOLOL Here is the link in case you want to do it.

http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/national-news/2009/October/27/THOROUGHBRED-TIMES-Racing2day-team-for-Cup-contest.aspx

[AlyshebaFan]

$450,000 euros for an unproven sire? Wow I would say that’s a bit much. Granted he’s a superstar but still he’s unproven. IMO he would have to start less than that. Way less.

[Author]

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