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Nicky Henderson has the single entry today (Sunday) with East India Express vying for favouritism. The figures are really good with resultant 300pts. 6/1 available this morning – that must be a good opportunity even for a place only bet ; 4 places Evens a banker.
3.27 PLUMPTON Sun 19/4/26 T. COUNT FAV FAV & W PROBABILITY COMMENT
RUNNER: EAST INDIA EXPRESS (14) (5) (4) 0.9459775 Good
CLASS C2 CL & Higher (6) (2) (1) 0.4225 Good
TRAINER: Nicky Henderson (59) (36) (25) 0.999973053 Good
CLASS + & RUNS AS % (14) (6) 0.640506254 Good
TRAINER’S RECENT RATIO IE. RUNS : FAV. + [RACE RATI 2 : 1 [300]___________________________________________________________-
UPDATE: very disappointing run – pulled up !
___________________________________________________________Quinault sits well in this C1 and looks to have the measure of the others vying for favouritism.
with a decent draw and with the aid of Marco Ghiani this is the selection today. (3.00pm Newmarket).3.00 Nmk Thurs 16th April T. COUNT FAV FAV & W PROBABILITY COMMENT
RUNNER: Time For Sandals (8) (1) (0) 0.4225 Good
CLASS C1 CL & Higher (5) (1) (0) 0.4225 Good
TRAINER: (32) (7) (4) 0.8002 Good
CLASS + & RUNS AS % (8) (5) 0.8939 Good
TRAINER’S RECENT RATIO IE. RUNS : FAV. + [RACE RATING] 5 : 1 [253]
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3.00 Nmk Thurs 16th April T. COUNT FAV FAV & W PROBABILITY COMMENT
RUNNER: Aramram (23) (8) (3) 0.4278 Good
CLASS C1 CL & Higher (1) (0) (0) N/E/Data
TRAINER: (76) (9) (2) 0.1211 Poor
CLASS + & RUNS AS % (23) (1) 0.0000 Poor
TRAINER’S RECENT RATIO IE. RUNS : FAV. + [RACE RATING] 8 : 1 [54]
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3.00 Nmk Thurs 16th April T. COUNT FAV FAV & W PROBABILITY COMMENT
RUNNER: Quinault (29) (6) (4) 0.8826 Good
CLASS C1 CL & Higher (14) (1) (1) 0.6500 Good
TRAINER: (78) (9) (5) 0.8283 Good
CLASS + & RUNS AS % (29) (14) 0.9022 Good
TRAINER’S RECENT RATIO IE. RUNS : FAV. + [RACE RATING] 9 : 1 [326]
——————————————————–Dark Cloud Rising looks a fair shout tomorrow at Pontefract.
3.57 Pont Tues 7/4/26 T. COUNT FAV FAV & W PROBABILITY COMMENT
RUNNER: DARK CLOUD RISING (16) (1) (1) 0.6500 Good
CLASS C2 CL & Higher (9) (0) (0) N/E/D
TRAINER: David O’Meara (31) (3) (3) 0.9571 Good
CLASS + & RUNS AS % (16) (9) 0.9329 Good
TRAINER’S RECENT RATIO IE. RUNS : FAV. + [RACE RATING] 10 : 1 [254]
________________________________________________________Unusual trip for Karl Burke to Bath Sunday. Single runner at the track and a long journey !
Beautiful Diamond looks strong for this C1 at a very modest course. Given the value of the race there are quite a few who have made the long trip including a couple of Irish challengers. Of the fancied runners the main danger could come from Clive Cox’s Hold A Dream. Ruby’s Profit has some good form in C1’s but that was a couple of years ago and since hasn’t made that grade.3.10 Bath Sun 5/4/26. T. COUNT FAV FAV & W PROBABILITY COMMENT
RUNNER: BEAUTIFUL DIAMOND (13) (6) (3) 0.6471 Good
CLASS C1 CL & Higher (10) (6) (3) 0.6471 Good
TRAINER: K R Burke (125) (18) (9) 0.8609 Good
CLASS + & RUNS AS % (13) (10) 0.9975 Good
TRAINER’S RECENT RATIO IE. RUNS : FAV. + [RACE RATING] 7 : 1 [315]
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3.10 Bath Sun 5/4/26 T. COUNT FAV FAV & W PROBABILITY COMMENT
RUNNER: MISS ATTITUDE (26) (2) (0) N/E/Data
CLASS C1 CL & Higher (5) (0) (0) N/E/Data
TRAINER: Jack Channon (54) (12) (6) 0.7873 Good
CLASS + & RUNS AS % (26) (5) 0.0242 Poor
TRAINER’S RECENT RATIO IE. RUNS : FAV. + [RACE RATING] 5 : 1 [81]
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3.10 Bath Sun 5/4/26 T. COUNT FAV FAV & W PROBABILITY COMMENT
RUNNER: HOLD A DREAM (9) (1) (0) N/E/Data
CLASS C1 CL & Higher (6) (0) (0) N/E/Data
TRAINER: Clive Cox (54) (11) (6) 0.8513 Good
CLASS + & RUNS AS % (9) (6) 0.9464 Good
TRAINER’S RECENT RATIO IE. RUNS : FAV. + [RACE RATING] 5 : 1 [179]
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3.10 Bath Sun 5/4/26 T. COUNT FAV FAV & W PROBABILITY COMMENT
RUNNER: SHINE ON ME (7) (2) (1) 0.4225 Good
CLASS C1 CL & Higher (3) (0) (0) N/E/Data
TRAINER: Archie Watson (45) (7) (3) 0.5323 Good
CLASS + & RUNS AS % (7) (3) 0.5323 Good
TRAINER’S RECENT RATIO IE. RUNS : FAV. + [RACE RATING] 6 : 1 [148]——————————————————–
T. COUNT FAV FAV & W PROBABILITY COMMENT
RUNNER: RUBY’S PROFIT (16) (2) (1) 0.4225 Good
CLASS C1 CL & Higher (2) (0) (0) N/E/Data
TRAINER: Dr R Newland & J Insole (66) (11) (6) 0.8513 Good
CLASS + & RUNS AS % (16) (2) 0.0098 Poor
TRAINER’S RECENT RATIO IE. RUNS : FAV. + [RACE RATING] 6 : 1 [128]———————————————————
D21 you dodged a bullet with a 4th yesterday.
Anyway, onwards and upwards, AL QAREEM and Karl Burke have amassed a really high rating. Said to need a pipe opener to be at his best but notwithstanding that fact looks a banker.2.30 Muss Sat 4/4/26 T. COUNT FAV FAV & W PROBABILITY COMMENT
RUNNER: AL QAREEM (35) (6) (5) 98% Good
CLASS C1 CL & Higher (20) (4) (4) 99% Good
TRAINER: K R Burke (105) (14) (5) 42% Good
CLASS + & RUNS AS % (35) (20) 99% Good
TRAINER’S RECENT RATIO IE. RUNS : FAV. + [RACE RATING] 8 : 1 [338]—————————————————————————–
2.30 Muss Sat 4/4/26 T. COUNT FAV FAV & W PROBABILITY COMMENT
RUNNER: MOUNT ATLAS (13) (3) (1) 27% Moderate
CLASS C1 CL & Higher (10) (0) (0) N/E/Data
TRAINER: Andrew Balding (63) (25) (14) 97% Good
CLASS + & RUNS AS % (13) (10) 100% Good
TRAINER’S RECENT RATIO IE. RUNS : FAV. + [RACE RATING] 3 : 1 [224]
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2.30 Muss Sat 4/4/26 T. COUNT FAV FAV & W PROBABILITY COMMENT
RUNNER: ROARING LEGEND (28) (11) (4) 43% Good
CLASS C1 CL & Higher (14) (0) (0) N/E/Data
TRAINER: Olly Murphy (22) (6) (4) 88% Good
CLASS + & RUNS AS % (28) (14) 93% Good
TRAINER’S RECENT RATIO IE. RUNS : FAV. + [RACE RATING] 4 : 1 [223]———————————————————
Hi D21, Same runner, Iv’e taken 2/1 to be placed in top 3. Not very courageous but I took a hit the other day and still licking my wounds.
AlexCheers Dynamite – comments much appreciated.
I also follow the racing post as a tissue for the races. Dark Moon Rising (Lin 3.15pm) makes for interest today in very open looking h’cap. 42 races without being fav to date but Kevin Ryan has good record with Favs.
AlexHIGH CLASS AW meeting at Lingfield. Fri 3rd April. Tight handicap with tissue favourite My Fermoy struggling to obtain a rating that gives any confidence. Another close in the betting Dark Moon Rising has had 42 races without ever being Favourite. Well that is so far. Maybe different Friday. With limited data this one still holds a rating advantage over My Fermoy.
3.15pm LIN AW Fri T. COUNT FAV FAV&W PROb COMMENT
RUNNER: MY FERMOY (6) (1) (1) 65% Good
CLASS C3 CL & Higher (1) (0) (0) N/E/Data
TRAINER: Denis Coakley (40) (6) (3) 65% Good
CLASS + & RUNS AS % (6) (1) 8% Poor
TRAINER’S RECENT RATIO IE. RUNS : FAV. + [RATING] 7 : 1 [137]—————————————————
3.15 Lin (AW) 43/4/26 T. COUNT FAV FAV & W PROBABILITY COMMENT
RUNNER: DARK MOON RISING (42) (0) (0) N0 Fav
CLASS C3 CL & Higher (35) (0) (0) No Fav
TRAINER: Kevin Ryan (66) (14) (7) 82% Good
CLASS + & RUNS AS % (42) (35) 100% Good
TRAINER’S RECENT RATIO IE. RUNS : FAV. + [RACE RATING] 5 : 1 [181]
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Chepstow today with Marlacoo who is todate proving very expensive to follow. The failures to do the business when favourite results in a low rating of 124.
Authentic Legacy has on the other hand a much higher rating mainly due not to the moderate form of the runner, but the excellent conversion rate of favourites from Gary & Josh Moore.4.07 Chp 2/4/26 T. COUNT FAV FAV & W PROBABILITY COMMENT
RUNNER: Authentic Legacy (10) (3) (1) 27% Moderate
CLASS C4 CL & Higher (10) (3) (1) 27% Moderate
TRAINER: Gary & Josh Moore (61) (9) (6) 95% Good
TOTAL RUNS / CLASS + & RUNS AS % (10) (10) 100% Good
TRAINER’S RECENT RATIO IE. RUNS : FAV. + [RACE RATING] 7 : 1 [249]
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4.07 Chp 2/4/26 T. COUNT FAV FAV & W PROBABILITY COMMENT
RUNNER: Marlacoo (13) (8) (2) 17% Moderate
CLASS C CL & Higher (14) (8) (1) 3% Poor
TRAINER: Tom Lacey (56) (16) (3) 5% Poor
TOTAL RUNS / CLASS + & RUNS AS % (13) (14) 100% Good
TRAINER’S RECENT RATIO IE. RUNS : FAV. + [RACE RATING] 4 : 1 [124]
________________________________________________________Back to the mundane tomorrow Monday 30th March.
The favourite Jackomy looks strong here. 2nd in betting not so ! Perhaps this is an occasion for taking the odds on.3.27PM LUDLOW T. COUNT FAV FAV & W PROBABILITY COMMENT
RUNNER: JACKOMY (7) (1) (1) 65% Good
CLASS C5 CL & Higher (6) (1) (1) 65% Good
TRAINER: Neil Mulholland (66) (6) (3) 65% Good
TOTAL RUNS / CLASS + & RUNS AS % (7) (6) 43% Good
TRAINER’S RECENT RATIO IE. RUNS : FAV. + [RACE RATING] 11 : 1 [237]
——————————————————–3.27 Ludlow T. COUNT FAV FAV & W PROBABILITY COMMENT
RUNNER: Oakley’s Way (10) (5) (1) 12% Poor
CLASS C5 CL & Higher (10) (3) (1) 27% Moderate
TRAINER: Anthony Honeyball (62) (15) (5) 35% Moderate
TOTAL RUNS / CLASS + & RUNS AS % (10) (10) 100% Good
TRAINER’S RECENT RATIO IE. RUNS : FAV. + [RACE RATING] 4 : 1 [174]
——————————————————–Looking at The Lincoln Handicap Sat. I’ve covered a few of RUNNERS where there has been strong support:
Not very inspiring but Eternal Force has the form when favourite or at least close to favouritism !LINCOLN T. COUNT FAV FAV & W PROBABILITY COMMENT
RUNNER: ETERNAL FORCE (7) (2) (2) 88% Good
CLASS C2 (0) (0) (0) N/E/D
TRAINER: William Haggas (10) (5) (3) 76% Good
TRAINER’S RECENT RATIO IE. RUNS : FAV. + [RACE RATING] 2 : 1 [164]
———————————————————LINCOLN T. COUNT FAV FAV & W PROBABILITY COMMENT
RUNNER: VALVANO (9) (3) (1) 27% Good
CLASS C2 (5) (1) (0)
TRAINER: Ralph Beckett (14) (6) (5) 98% Good
TRAINER’S RECENT RATIO IE. RUNS : FAV. + [RACE RATING] 2 : 1 [125]
——————————————————–LINCOLN T. COUNT FAV FAV & W PROBABILITY COMMENT
RUNNER: ROGUE DIPLOMAT (10) (2) (1) 42% Good
CLASS C2 (2) (1) (1) 65% Good
TRAINER: James Owen (51) (13) (5) 50% Good
TRAINER’S RECENT RATIO IE. RUNS : FAV. + [RACE RATING] 4 : 1 [157]
——————————————————–Paul Nicholls fields 4 fancied runners tomorrow at his local track Taunton. Taunton is one of the best Tracks for favourites. Favs can run at 45% strike on a good day.
2.15pm Tau Nov Hur 8R Tue 24/3/26 T. COUNT FAV FAV & W PROBABILITY COMMENT
RUNNER: FALLS OF ACHARN (7) (1) (1) 5% Moderate
CLASS C4 (1) (0) (0) Insu’ Data
TRAINER: Paul Nicholls (71) (17) (9) 90% Good
TRAINER’S RECENT RATIO IE. RUNS : FAV. + [RACE RATING] 4 : 1 [94]
——————————————————–23.45pm Tau H’c Chase 6R Tue 24/3/26 T. COUNT FAV FAV & W PROBABILITY COMMENT
RUNNER: WICKED THOUGHTS (10) (5) (2) 43% Good
CLASS C4 (5) (3) (0) Insu’ Data
TRAINER: Paul Nicholls (71) (17) (9) 90% Good
TRAINER’S RECENT RATIO IE. RUNS : FAV. + [RACE RATING] 4 : 1 [132]——————————————————–
4.15pm Tau H’c Hur 7R Tue 24/3/26 T. COUNT FAV FAV & W PROBABILITY COMMENT
RUNNER: TREASURE PLANET (4) (1) (1) 65% Good
CLASS C4 (3) (1) (1) 65% Good
TRAINER: Paul Nicholls (71) (17) (9) 90% Good
TRAINER’S RECENT RATIO IE. RUNS : FAV. + [RACE RATING] 4 : 1 [220]———————————————————
5.15pm Tau NH FLAT 6R Tue 24/3/26 T. COUNT FAV FAV & W PROBABILITY COMMENT
RUNNER: ARTABAN (0) (0) (0) Insu’ Data
CLASS C5 (0) (0) (0) Insu’ Data
TRAINER: Paul Nicholls (71) (17) (9) 90% Good
TRAINER’S RECENT RATIO IE. RUNS : FAV. + [RACE RATING] 4 : 1 [90]——————————————————–
The historical fav winning % for hurdlers is (34%). However, Amateur H’cap hurdles do not have a good record for favourites and the rating confirms the uncertainty. Jonjo (81mile trip) has 3 runners with Mr Griffiths as the shortest priced.
2.45Winc Amateur H’c Hur Mon 23/3 T. COUNT FAV FAV & W PROBABILITY COMMENT
RUNNER: MR GRIFFITHS (7) (3) (2) 72% Good
CLASS C4 (3) (0) (0) Limited Data
TRAINER: Jonjo & A J O’Neill (68) (13) (2) 3% Moderate
TRAINER’S RECENT RATIO IE. RUNS : FAV. + [RACE RATING] 5 : 1 [74]This is a classic case for LAYING: Amateur H’c Stat + low Rating + Wincanton favours speedy types.
_____________________________________________________________Sam Thomas makes the long trip (276m) tomorrow with Rocking Man and Just For Dad, both well fancied.
Rocking Man was also entered Warwick Thursday in a longer race.
Needs to improve on hurdling but in fairness has only had a couple of hurdles along with 3 NHFlats.
Carlisle is a testing track and the fav hurdle performance is only 31%.1.45pm Carl Mon 22/3/26 Nov Hur T. COUNT FAV FAV & W PROBABILITY COMMENT
RUNNER: ROCKING MAN (5) (3) (2) 72% Good
CLASS C4 (1) (1) (1) 65% Good
TRAINER: Sam Thomas (52) (18) (10) 94% Good
TRAINER’S RECENT RATIO IE. RUNS : FAV. + [RACE RATING] 3 : 1 [230]
________________________________________________________Khrisma will likely go off favourite tomorrow and looks a fair bet. The only fly in the ointment that I can see is the upping of class for this handicap.
2.10pm Kelso H’c Hurdle 21/3/26 T. COUNT FAV FAV & W PROBABILITY COMMENT
RUNNER: KHRISMA (5) (4) (2) 56% Good
CLASS C2 (1) (0) (0) n/E/Data
TRAINER: N Henderson (43) (15) (8) 89% Good
TRAINER’S RECENT RATIO IE. RUNS : FAV. + [RACE RATING] 3 : 1 [144]UPDATE SAT MORNING ; looks to be moving towards odds on for the SP !
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