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People who’s trousers have had an argument with their shoesQuadrilla
Are they your own corrected times ? If so am I right in assuming you base the going allowance on the times of all races on any particular day to ascertain the correction per furlong ?
A corected time of 6.717 equates to about an improvement of over 30 lengths doesn’t it and I believe that was run at Wolverhampton and not Southwell, which is 50yds further and therefore more difficult to compare best times over the distance or are you comparing to your or RP standard times ?
Were you on Maslak per chance ?
Morning Max
My boy decided it would be good if his Dad had a dose of the lurgy so I have been ejecting bodily fluids from all angles for the last two days ! Too much information ?
Don’t like Southwell today apart from the first at 1.00. I wouldn’t put you off yours, 6F at Southwell seems to be his best C&D but I’d be surprised if there wasn’t one or two more likely winners.
I shall be backing Imperial Sword who admittedly is on the downgrade but ran a little better last time out and if reproducing that effort should go well. For the forecast I am taking a chance with Trinculo who if on a going day will go close and finally for the tricast I’ll nominate Soba Jones who wasn’t too far behind Imperial Sword LTO
With regard to the 3.00 I can’t see past the Prescott horse so I wish you luck with Kylkenny
Good start to the evening with Gifted Heir.
"Hope your daughter gets better soon. I’ve had that s & d thing recently and it is gruesome. "
Tell me about it ! As soon as it goes in it comes straight back up again. She’s a boy by the way !
Max
Saw the Anduril race and both that & Alasil never really got competitive at all. Also managed to see the last race where Morbick hacked up and I thought at one point I might be in with a chance of the forecast with Candy Anchor. Candy Anchor travelled really well but when push came to shove the young lady on top didn’t impress.
I quite like three at Wolves tonight , no write up I’m afraid as my 2 year old has the sickness and diarrhoea thing but they are
650 Gifted Heir
850 Danetime Lord
920 JustcallmehandsomeNot great prices but if they win that’ll do.
Hope you had the conviction to back Fajr at Lingfield. Like Maverick I strongly fancied Troubadour but the pace for that one was too slow I think
Regards
Asc 13:10 Hoh Viss 2pt win
Asc 13:45 Mansony 2pt win
Asc 14:55 Petite Margot 1pt ewIf Mansony beats Twist Magic today will it have any bearing on the view of the Gold Cup ?
Scenario would be
Kauto Star beat Voy Per easily last season, Twist Magic beat Voy Per LTO
Mansony beats Twist Magic today
The Listener beat Mansony easily
Denman beat The Listener LTOIf Mansony did beat Twist Magic would it be a plus point for Denman ?
Fists
"He is an awesome individual with an amazing turn of foot who I would bet against even Arkle if the two jumped the last together"
I have to say I disagree with your point above, in fact I would go as far to say that if Kauto Star is only upsides something at the last come March then you’re going to be kissing goodbye to your money. As in both King Georges and last years Gold Cup Ruby has made his move earlier in a come and catch me now scenario. I can’t see him wanting to do anything different and if he hasn’t used his "spurt of acceleration" by then , then he’s in trouble. If Denman or/and Exotic Dancer jump the last upsides I would fancy them to do him. IMHO of course.
Wolverhampton today, I should have been going but with the weather as it is I’m glad I’m not.
120
Grimes Faith – Won easily at Southwell LTO however its last two runs at Wolves have been poor which puts me off today.
Doubtful Sound – Ran well both previous visits including C&D win in March 07. Last two runs at Southwell nothing special but wouldn’t be a surprise if it runs well
Chatshow – Running reasonably well without winning and hasn’t won for a while. Finished behind Grimes Faith LTO however this course and distance should see in better light. Todays jockey is a worry though.
Call Off The Search – Made all to win over C&D earlier in the month albeit in an average time. Has a lot to find with with Mafaheem on run before that and two subsequents runs have been disappointing.
Mafaheem – Been running well over C&D lately winning twice, a claimer & a seller. No reason to think it wont run its race again and the one to beat.
Phinerine – Behind Mafaheem over C&D and now worse off. 1 win from 37 on the AW and not for me.
Blackheath – Well behind COTS last time and no reason to see a turn around in form.
Now You See Me – Not a lot to go on but promising enough debut run over 7F at Lingfield. Poor run next time and coming back after long break.
Stormburst – Ran well only previous visit to Wolves and has been pretty consistent on the AW since November.Definite place claims.Quite a tricky opener but I’m going to go for Mafaheem to make it 3 from 5 over C&D. I’m giving the forecast spot to Chatshow just ahead of Stormburst though I might do Mafaheem to beat them both in straight forecasts.
150
Not much between The Salwick Flyer & Aggbag over 7F LTO with TSF now 4lb better off. Aggbag however looks the more likely to stay the extra furlong so might come out on top again of this pair. Norwegian is back to its last winning mark and started to run well at this time last year, however its most recent runs are nothing to shout about. Star Of The Deserts last couple of runs at Wolves haven’t been too bad and could run into a place if allowed an easy lead. Private Soldier hasn’t been seen for a while but had decent form over C&D and if fully primed will take the beating
Private Soldier for me with maybe Star Of The Desert at a price for the forecast.
220
A match I think between Nimello & Carlton Scroop. I’m going for the latter who has C&D form and has won before after a break.
405
Abbondanza has been running really well of late and should get the lead again today and might be difficult to pass however could set it up for one of the finishers today. Alfresco was beaten 5 lengths by Abbondanza over C&D and only 3lb better off although has run well since winning at Lingfield and being shortheaded at Kempton. Gaelic Princess is just 2lb higher than when winning over C&D in October and likely to get a decent pace with Abbondanza in the race. Princess Cocoa was two shortheads behind Abbondanza LTO when a warm favourite. Same terms today so should be close up.
I’m going to risk Gaelic Princess at around 16/1 EW to mow them down late. Abbondanza to hold on for second
435
Buscador is the obvious one and if running to its best should win, however if you can get Alasil at 2/1 place only i think this would be a better betting proposition
505
Jaarvo has a good pilot and if reproducing it C&D win in May 07 would have a good chance but been a bit disappointing in its last two runs. Shantinas Dream also won over C&D in December and once again a reproduction of that would have a chance. Candy Anchor’s overall form isn’t much but its last run over C&D wasn’t too bad finishing just behind Komreyev Star who won yesterday. Morbick has run creditably in last two runs and a reproduction of its run behind Confidentiality at the end of November would be good enough to win today.
So its Morbick for me with a speculative forecast with Candy Anchor
Now where did I put that wheelbarrow……………….
FOF
I think it is dangerous to compare times on certain stated goings as you are assuming the ground is accurately reported.
Kicking King won in 2004 on good to soft in a time 11 seconds better than Kauto Star’s best. Similarly First Gold won in a time 6 seconds better than Kauto Star’s best.
Going on times against ground The Fellow won in a better time on good ground than Desert Orchid on Good to Firm.
So maybe if we go on times, if Kicking King returns to anything near his best he might shake up the big three this year ?
"David Cormack is obviously in league with the likes of Non Vintage, Carvillshill, Grasshopper, Aaronsomethingorother,"
Christ! I am mentioned in the same sentence as four of the greats of the TRF ! I can die a happy man
Not got time to put a more detailed write up but going to have a go at Kempton tonight
750
The last time Nicada ran over C&D was a useful 2nd to Dens Gift with three subsequent winners , Smokin joe,Chia & Dushstorm behind. Good EW chance at 16/1. If Binnion Bay is on a going day could pick up a decent forecast !
820
The two I like are Kamal & Tigers Rocket. Kamal should be better suited by a return to this C&D and should go well. Slight preference is for Tigers Rocket who has to overcome a 6lb penalty but has run reasonably well all visits here. EW at 14/1 with a reverse forecast.
920
Wind Flow was 2nd beaten half a length behind an improver last time out and should handle the extra furlong, 5/1 would be nice. I have Play Up Pompey as the forecast whose October run behind Bowl of Cherries would take him close here.
"Oh, and sorry, make that FOUR in the South and ONE in the MIdlands"
Mike,
I think two of the tracks would be classed as the Midlands , Southwell (East Midlandsish) and the wonderful Wolverhampton (West Midlands).
1240L
Follow The Flag – Dropping down the ratings and although only beat one home LTO was only 4lengths off the winner. Worth a try back at 6F however overall I dont think good enough.
Rosie Cross – Now a non runner
Monashee Brave – Won a couple of sellers recently though LTO was at Southwell. Don’t think this surface will suit as well.
Musical Script – Running reasonably well of late including good run when 2nd over C&D to Bond Becks in December. A repeat of that run would take it close. 1 win from 31 however and 13 place runs to boot indicate forecast material.
Crimson Fern – Respectable runs last twice over 6F though won its only race over 7F at Wolves. Over 7F would consider but not today over 6F.
Desert Light – Should run its race and 1lb lower than last win. However last two wins have been in a seller & an Amateur riders handicap and might just find one or two better today.
Majestical – Been running over 7F recently however all winning been done at 5&6F. Usually comes from well off the pace so wont want to get too far behind early on. Place chance at best for me.
Lost All Alone – Ran poorly LTO however was held up on that occasion. Its win over C&D in November was in a useful time and from the front. If able to do similar would have a big chance although confidence is slighty tempered by the record of todays jockey.I’m going for Lost All Alone to reproduce its November running. Musical Script who seems to prefer being placed is my suggestion for the forecast.
"Indeed Aaron – good effort with Ernmoor. Have to admit to not thinking he’d be getting involved…"
NV
From just looking at its form figures I wouldn’t have. However on the AW I seem to be having some successes with considering best times over the C&D of the race during a time period of 4 months ( races in January go back to September, February will only go back to October). Believe it or not Ernmoor came out top on that consideration so at that price and against the poor opposition I figured it worth a go, particularly at such long odds. Kempton up till yesterday hadn’t really proved succesful, however it does seem to work well at Wolverhampton, where after a poor Friday I managed a couple of winners and a 16/1 place on the Saturday.
Long may it continue I say !I’ve done my bollox cause of those so called friggin expert tipsters on the Racing Post !
"Racing tipsters put themselves up as experts "
No different to most walks of life, buy this record, buy this wine, buy these shoes, buy this car….. the list is endless. people claiming to be experts giving opinions on what you as a consumer should consider
"Why the moderator finds my opinion so strange is not surprising. Reading back all the threads on here this forum does seem to have a bias towards the media (some of whom even post under here without a nom de plume) and against the ordinary man in the street."
I think you may be surprised to find its not just the moderator but also this ordinary man on the street who think you’re opinions are strange.
Enough from me you’ll be glad to hear