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Kauto Star V Denman Fair or Not?

Home Forums Horse Racing Kauto Star V Denman Fair or Not?

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  • #6289
    Fist of Fury 2k8
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    • Total Posts 2930

    I have always been of the opinion that the bookies are taking the punters for a ride with Denman.

    In Gold Cup terms he did little to impress me in the Lexus and unless Kauto Star falls I just can’t see Denman being a threat.

    I received some info on Kauto Star from a friend today that I was totally unaware of and if he is correct I am surprised some of you time buffs have never brought it up. If you doubt his turn of foot you might find this interesting.

    "I have compared the two horses as you requested and thrown in One Man as you asked.

    a) Kauto Star and One Man both had a faster times than Desert Orchid in the King George. Note: KS and DO were racing on good to soft ground DO and OM were compared when running on good to Firm. I have compared the business end of the race times of all 3 races together despite One Man’s race being on good to firm.

    B). In the business end of the race from the 3rd last to the winning post Kauto Star was about 2 seconds faster than Desert Orchid on good to soft 2007 and 1990

    c) Kauto Star 2007 covered the last three fences in good to soft ground within 1/2 a second of the time recorded by One Man on good to firm ground.
    d) Both Desert Orchid and One Man were vigorously ridden over the last three fences in there races. Kauto Star did it on the bridle for the most part and Ruby was not hard on the horse at any stage.
    e) In the 2006 race Kauto Star ridden out was almost 3 seconds faster than Desert Orchid over the last 3 fences again both were running on good to soft ground. I double checked my times on a fence to fence basis and I would say they are fairly accurate.
    I would have Kauto at around 5 to 7 lengths superior to them both on his 2 King George victories. I base this on not only the times but the finishing speed that Kauto Star had in reserve in the latter" END

    Well I would be biased if I said that was totally conclusive and I can’t comment on the accuracy of the info but he has put me right more than once in the past.

    The results just makes me believe even more, he really is something special. I would say we are on the verge of a great horse making history he improves with every run and yet the bookies have Denman as short as 7/4 for the race.

    Denman has done nothing to make me think he could even make Kauto break sweat and I would want around 9/2 if I was going to risk betting him.

    So the question is are the bookies taking the mickey or do you think the prices are fair.

    #135882
    Gazs Way De Solzen
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    • Total Posts 2440

    I have often thought that Denman is a bit too short for what he has achieved, especially when Paul Nicholls has said that the horse has it all to prove and the fact that Kauto Star has been there and done that. Denman has been impressive in the races that he has been entered in, and consequently won, but i do think his odds for the Gold Cup are too short.

    Your argument in theory is good about race times, etc… but you have to have a look at the King George’s from 2006 and 2007.

    In 2006, Ollie Magern, a bold front runner, set a good pace, to which set a faster time than races that involved Desert Orchid and One Man for example.

    This year, you have Exotic Dancer trying different tactics which means that Kauto Star is trying to keep up with the move and be more prominent in the race.

    I do think the 2006 King George was quite a fast pace for a race and it got quicker when McCoy brought Exotic Dancer from the back round the top bend to bring him up alongside Racing Demon and Kauto Star, as Ollie Magern and Monet’s Garden dropped back.

    #135892
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17716

    FoF

    Surely the golden question is whether KS can finish as strongly off a more searching pace than he did last year?
    There are certainly reasons for doubt.

    #135895
    aaronizneez
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1740

    FOF

    I think it is dangerous to compare times on certain stated goings as you are assuming the ground is accurately reported.

    Kicking King won in 2004 on good to soft in a time 11 seconds better than Kauto Star’s best. Similarly First Gold won in a time 6 seconds better than Kauto Star’s best.

    Going on times against ground The Fellow won in a better time on good ground than Desert Orchid on Good to Firm.

    So maybe if we go on times, if Kicking King returns to anything near his best he might shake up the big three this year ? :)

    #135897
    Irish Stamp
    Member
    • Total Posts 3181

    Can we compare Arkle and Kauto Star to find out who was faster and as a result better? :wink:

    #135900
    Gazs Way De Solzen
    Member
    • Total Posts 2440

    Can we compare Arkle and Kauto Star to find out who was faster and as a result better? :wink:

    :lol: :lol: :lol:

    #135903
    clivex
    Member
    • Total Posts 3420

    think it is dangerous to compare times on certain stated goings as you are assuming the ground is accurately reported.

    Couldnt agree more. Times assessments (although perhaps Maudlin does have a point or two about sectionals) over the sticks are of virtually no interest to me.

    B). In the business end of the race from the 3rd last to the winning post Kauto Star was about 2 seconds faster than Desert Orchid on good to soft 2007 and 1990

    Thats hardly suprising given the way DO ran his races.

    There is no doubt in my mind that KS is genuinely a great horse and I would have him further ahead of Denman than some.

    #135909
    Fist of Fury 2k8
    Member
    • Total Posts 2930

    Guys I don’t disagree with what any of you are saying :roll: except for Gaz in Desert Orchids race Sabin D’loir (however you spell it) went of like a bat out of hell and fell around 4 out……was a tremendous pace they went. Not that it’s important as it wasn’t the point of the post anyway

    and Reet talking about taking Kauto of his feet is one thing doing it is another.

    I haven’t seen a horse that travels better than he does when 100% and have never seen him come of the bridle until asked to. I see no reason to think Denman is any better than the likes of ED

    When I watch the Lexus had Kauto been sitting alongside The Listener when Denman went for home I just can’t imagine him faltering….he would have sat with him no problem and left him for dead……remember Ruby really went for Denman and couldn’t have got anymore out of him.

    But if any horse is going to get him of the bridle I suppose it will be Denman but I would want a damn sight more than 2/1 him succeeding.

    Don’t want to talk anyone off backing the horse it just wouldn’t be me.

    #135910
    carvillshill
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2778

    Bloody hell, Fist in new Kuato/Denman thread shock!

    The title and premise of this thread are a bit silly.

    1. Punters have the option of veto over any price a bookie puts up so to accuse bookmakers of some kind of nefarious practice because you think a horse is too short is daft.
    2. This race has been done to death by you and a thousand others so the chances of much value remaining about the front 2 are slim.
    3. The front 2 seem to be clear of the rest and hence there is no point in bookies going out on a limb about them. This means in an ante-post situation that at current prices neither offer value- they are not likely to be significantly shorter on the day.
    4. There are 25 races at Cheltenham and many ante-post and day of race opportunities between now and then where time spent analysing is far more likely to unearth value than in the Gold Cup- so why spend all your waking hours thinking about one race?

    #135915
    Himself
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3777

    Kauto Star had to be shaken up last year, and driven out, lest we forget.Yes, I did back him.

    But, If the ground comes up soft at Cheltenham this year, Denman will test every bit of Kauto’s stamina and resolve.

    I can’t remember a Gold Cup head to head over NH fences which has been so anticpated by anyone remotely interested in the sport since the days of Arkle v Mill House – and unlike Denman and Kauto Star, those two giants of the turf had met before the big one.

    I can’t wait. Hopefully they will both win their prep race before Cheltenham (selfish reasons, you understand :wink: ).

    Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning

    #135919
    Happy Jack
    Participant
    • Total Posts 515

    In the business end of the race from the 3rd last to the winning post Kauto Star was about 2 seconds faster than Desert Orchid on good to soft 2007 and 1990

    Quite possibly a meaningless comparison – in addition to Clive’s note about differing running styles, do we know that the distance from the third last fence to the winning post was exactly the same seventeen years ago as it is today?

    #135924
    clivex
    Member
    • Total Posts 3420

    4. There are 25 races at Cheltenham and many ante-post and day of race opportunities between now and then where time spent analysing is far more likely to unearth value than in the Gold Cup- so why spend all your waking hours thinking about one race?

    I never quite understood why some (and not saying this is the case with FOF) feel they have to have some kind of financial involvement in every big race

    Surely thats mug punting at its worst?

    in fact the race is so fascinating that the urge for a bet is far less pressing than it should be perhaps?

    For me, there is no real value in the race and I couldnt care less, but i cannot wait to see it…

    #135925
    Fist of Fury 2k8
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    • Total Posts 2930

    Bloody hell, Fist in new Kuato/Denman thread shock!

    The title and premise of this thread are a bit silly.

    1. Punters have the option of veto over any price a bookie puts up so to accuse bookmakers of some kind of nefarious practice because you think a horse is too short is daft.
    2. This race has been done to death by you and a thousand others so the chances of much value remaining about the front 2 are slim.
    3. The front 2 seem to be clear of the rest and hence there is no point in bookies going out on a limb about them. This means in an ante-post situation that at current prices neither offer value- they are not likely to be significantly shorter on the day.
    4. There are 25 races at Cheltenham and many ante-post and day of race opportunities between now and then where time spent analysing is far more likely to unearth value than in the Gold Cup- so why spend all your waking hours thinking about one race?

    Maybe some people love the thought of a clash of Titans mate and that is why it has been done to death as you put it. There are more than a few people can’t wait to see the race and I am one of them…Sort of the same thing when Muhhamad Ali was fighting….I think he was known as the most talked about man on earth at one time. The Arkle and Mill House class was spoken about in every bar in Ireland and England for months before it happened……maybe you just don’t have a racing soul and should take up watching sailing.

    As far as the price of Denman goes I still say they are offering a terrible price and they know it….at least my bookie agrees with me if you don’t

    BTW If you think bookies are wonderful honest people who wouldn’t offer you an inflated prices and take your money, knowing full well a horse is a definite non runner then you are naive.

    Let’s look at this for a moment and I may be talking rubbish as I am not a bookie. Is this possible……Big Bookie X takes 300K in different bets for Denman at a very short price 2/1. there commitment is 600K…..on the day of the race the money comes pouring in for Kauto Star as it will definately do and Denman drifts out to 3/1 even a bit of 7/2? in comes in comes Big Bookie X and sticks on 200K of the original 300K and sticks 100K in his pocket……now do bookies do that type of thing?……..according to my contact at one of the biggest firms in the UK.every bloody chance they get………as you say though bookies would never take punters for a ride they are too nice :?

    #135927
    Fist of Fury 2k8
    Member
    • Total Posts 2930

    In the business end of the race from the 3rd last to the winning post Kauto Star was about 2 seconds faster than Desert Orchid on good to soft 2007 and 1990

    Quite possibly a meaningless comparison – in addition to Clive’s note about differing running styles, do we know that the distance from the third last fence to the winning post was exactly the same seventeen years ago as it is today?

    Yes we do Jack they haven’t change a thing according to my man but it’s irrelevant as the lads say….the only thing it does prove is Kauto Star has an amazing turn of foot for a chaser but I think we knew that already….but don’t tell Denman it’s a surprise :wink:

    #135936
    seabird
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2924

    Fists, I am becoming convinced that you are getting paid for every mention you give to Kauto Star.

    Have you asked PFN if you can sleep with the horse? :wink:

    Colin

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