- This topic has 43 replies, 32 voices, and was last updated 18 years, 6 months ago by
.
- Posts
Hi guys.
Just thought this would be an interesting thread.
What do you look for when picking your horses, and what would you class as the most important factor or factors? ? ?
Horse form? ? ?
Trainer form? ? ?
Ground? ? ?
Trip? ? ?
Jockey even? ? ?Thanks.
<!– s:D –>
<!– s:D –>Joking apart, the most important consideration in backing a horse is whether it’s likely to be trying.
Class/Ability – if a horse hasn’t got the raw ability to win at this level then it doesn’t matter how much it is suited by the course/going/distance
Once the field has been narrowed down to those which have the basic ability to win, then it’s a matter of form study to determine which one is most suited to the conditions on the day.
I don’t actually prepare a tissue but I would have an idea of what constitutes an acceptable price and what doesn’t.
- Total Posts 17716
Joking apart, the most important consideration in backing a horse is whether it’s likely to be trying.
On that note, I was looking at Barney Curley’s Le Soleil in the last at Nottingham as I quite fancied the favourite.
Instinct, more than anything, tells me it will be up for it today, but against that I can’t see why any clued up punter would be interested in a ‘coup’ at Nottingham, where loose change can have a serious effect on the price?
Not sure Barney’s has had enough of a break for me to consider him of interest. Most of his winners come off the back of a long break. Ofcourse it’s a grey area on this horse as he’s won turned out quite quickly already this season.
A much more interesting Barney horse has been declared at Wolverhampton in the 9.20 on Friday evening. Pindar has had three quicks runs, a long break and is now stepped up in trip for a 0-45 contest.
bluebook
I don’t use any formula although I did dabble in the VDW idea of £/runs for a while.
It’s more of an analysis of both lifetime and recent form to determine if the horse has run well at this level before. If a horse hasn’t performed well at, say, Listed level before now, then I would tend to strike a line through that horse in Group races and Heritage Hcps (the level of race I bet in)
I would tend to have a quick look at the top end of the betting as well to see if there is a horse who is stepping up in class who is well fancied. You have to take a view on that particular horse but, in my experience, horses who are stepping up in class to a good level race will be outclassed more often than not so I usually put a line through them and shrug my shoulder if they come in.
Would agree with Rory as most of the time my selections just run to bad to be true.
Also getting the bets on in time is important as you only get 1 minute to bet at steepledowns or sprint valley and i’ve had many a small tricast turned back because it was n’t on time.ps, the most important thing has to be that your sure in your own mind that you have correctly stacked the odds in your favour of winning, thats the type of thing Freudians or psychologists would know how to do, but it’s something i’m still trying to get better at.
Marb, either you’re on the wind up or your second paragraph is about the daftest thing i’ve heard following on from your first paragraph..
I’ve learnt, don’t bet heavily on the flat – Jumps are easier to make money in my book..
Finding out what the pundits, "experts", tv stations, racing post, trainers, jockeys, etc… are tipping then doing the exact opposite.
Do that and you’re well on the way.
Ability, winning form, distance, ground suitabilty, trainer, jockey, course.
When all of the above tick the correct boxes, I raid the piggy bank and lump on.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Class/Earned Money
Form
Win Ability, numbers of wins
Course
Distance
Going
Jockey
Trainer
When was last race?
Prior runnings against other contenders
Watching replays
How does horse look in the paddock?
OddsThanks guys for the replies.
…hang on Gareth, don’t you want mine?
I haven’t the time to be assed with it so I pay [modestly] for someone else to do much of the working out [i.e. they have contacts and a more professional approach]. I’m finding it works rather well so far – at least I know mine are ‘off’.
Jockey bookings – Ryan Moore is God [and occasionally Richard Hills].
Thanks guys for the replies.
…hang on Gareth, don’t you want mine?
I haven’t the time to be assed with it so I pay [modestly] for someone else to do much of the working out [i.e. they have contacts and a more professional approach]. I’m finding it works rather well so far – at least I know mine are ‘off’.
Jockey bookings – Ryan Moore is God [and occasionally Richard Hills].
Of course i want yours, was just saying thanks so far.
Thank you for yours too.
<!– s:D –>
Also getting the bets on in time is important as you only get 1 minute to bet at steepledowns or sprint valley and i’ve had many a small tricast turned back because it was n’t on time.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.