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Oh well, we shall see on the staying front. I’d always rather go with my instincts than wait for them to prove it, by which the time the price has gone.
I got 20s with Betvictor and immediately posted the price availability here. They’re not usually tardy in changing and don’t miss much, so I think they just took a view on it, though there’s half a chance somebody made a rick.
Oh well, we shall see on the staying front. I’d always rather go with my instincts than wait for them to prove it, by which the time the price has gone.
I got 20s with Betvictor and immediately posted the price availability here. They’re not usually tardy in changing and don’t miss much, so I think they just took a view on it, though there’s half a chance somebody made a rick.
Of course anyone can go with instincts before a horse actually proves he stays or acts on the ground etc etc. I often do so myself if believing the price good enough to take the chance… And 20/1 is well worth it. Had I not already been on Thistlecrack would’ve taken 20/1 or 16’s Camping Ground myself. Just didn’t want him to fail in the Cleeve and end up in the Champion; reducing the value on Thistlecrack.
Value Is EverythingI haven’t backed Thistlecrack, but I don’t mind betting 3 or 4 in these races if the prices are tempting: have backed Kilcooley, Cole Harden, Camping Ground and Arctic Fire NRNB
I thought Camping Ground looked pretty impressive. It wasn’t as if they held on to him and he didn’t appear to be stopping up the hill. It is not impossible that second showed improved form. Yes, he does have to prove his stamina and whether he will be so effective on quicker ground.
That said, at this stage neither Thistlecrack or Kilcooley have any course form.
That said, at this stage neither Thistlecrack or Kilcooley have any course form.
That’s my main worry Stilvi. Although do think Thistlecrack is too short now. At this stage 3/1 would be a good bet, but 9/4 is top price! It’s true he’s the only one who’s really shown top level staying hurdle form this season. But there’s still time for one or two to step up to the plate. Camping Ground, Annie Power, Kilkooley, Cole Harden, Vroom Vroom Mag could all yet show the necessary improvement.
Value Is EverythingI haven’t backed Thistlecrack, but I don’t mind betting 3 or 4 in these races if the prices are tempting: have backed Kilcooley, Cole Harden, Camping Ground and Arctic Fire NRNB
Can understand the NRNB, I’ve just taken NRNB More Of That for the Gold Cup. Sometimes I can not resist, but I’ve been trying to cut down on the number of ante-post bets per race. Because if one or two don’t turn up it can ruin the “value” of the bets that do run.
If just one of three ante-post bets (on the same race) turns up and that horse is say 6/1, it is easy for the punter to believe he’s got “value” – because it is now much shorter than the 14/1 voucher he’s holding. However:
If backing three horses all @ 14/1. If only one makes it to the race then that one horse needs to be no better than 7/2 for the ante-post bets to be worth while.
1 point @ 14/1 (doesn’t run so lost money)
1 point @ 14/1 (doesn’t run so lost money)
1 point @ 14/1 has a potential return of 15 points for an overall stake on the race of 3 points3 points staked on the day @ 4/1 has the same potential return of 15 points for a 3 points stake.
Value Is EverythingThistlecrack looks absolutely rock solid, though I’d be in no rush to write off Camping Ground either. That was a cracking run from him last time. I put up Prince of Scars as a horse to follow last season, and I still think he’s been a bit wee bit under-rated off the back of his last win, and I think he’s got serious each way appeal about him.
Still very hopeful though that Aux Ptit Soins makes it on the day. However, to give myself some potential interest from other outsiders, especially as Call The Cops looks an unlikely runner, I’ve laid off a few quid at 11’s to 13.5’s, and “reinvested” it on these guys, who would have to be considered “highly unlikely” to line up. Still showing a green book at the moment, so happy with that.
Ttebbob – Well and truly put in his place by Douvan, I just wonder if they’ll maybe venture down this route with him, though after that run at Leapordstown, no surprise if we don’t see him again this season. 260’s to 460’s.
Theinval – Looked to be highly progressive around 2 and a half miles last season. Very happy with his debut over fences at Bangor, and I fully expect him to continue over the larger obstacles, however his entry in The Lanazarote didn’t go un-noticed, and I’ve had a go. 710’s to 1000’s.
Minella Rocco – Desperate so far this season in Novice Chases, I just wonder if they’ll keep him over timber. JP doesn’t have an obvious candidate, other than At Fishers Cross, so I thought he was worth a gamble. Considered the 50’s each way with Skybet, and he was nearly my selection for “TRF vs Pricewise”, but went for him on the exchange instead. I’ve also bet him for the 3 mile chase on Day 1 of The Festival, where he can exploit his mark of 143, and haven’t ruled out The Pertemps for him either. Difficult horse to weigh up, but the potential is undoubtedly there. 240’s to 260’s.
Thistlecrack looks absolutely rock solid, though I’d be in no rush to write off Camping Ground either. That was a cracking run from him last time. I put up Prince of Scars as a horse to follow last season, and I still think he’s been a bit wee bit under-rated off the back of his last win, and I think he’s got serious each way appeal about him.
Prince Of Scars is progressive but I would be a little wary of that high head carriage. If you were a supporter I think you would want horses coming back to him and that’s probably less likely to happen on a quicker surface.
Would of had a few quid on ptit zig at 500.0 if he was in the market after falling today, not unimaginable that he ends up here.
THREE-TIME Grade 2 winning chaser Ptit Zig is likely to be switched to hurdles for his next start after failing to complete on his last two outings over fences.
An unseat at the second-last in Saturday’s Listed chase at Kempton followed a similar jumping error when falling at the final flight in last month’s Peterborough Chase.
In both contests Ptit Zig looked booked for second place but Paul Nicholls is set to press the pause button on the seven-year-old’s chase career, with the Cleeve Hurdle on January 30 under consideration.
“It was disappointing to see Ptit Zig depart at the second last fence at Kempton and I’m afraid he has never been the most natural over fences,” the trainer said on his website.
“He got away with it in small fields last season but despite loads of schooling at home he tends to get into the bottom of his fences when he doesn’t meet them spot on. It’s so frustrating as he has loads of talent.
“While I will still give him an entry in the Ryanair Chase I plan to switch him back to hurdles next with the Cleeve Hurdle at Cheltenham an obvious option.”
Nicholls knows what it takes to win the Cleeve Hurdle as he has claimed three of the last seven runnings of the Grade 2.
Gearing up for festival
The trainer said Le Prezien, winner of the 2m½f novice hurdle at Doncaster on Friday, will receive an entry for next month’s Betfair Hurdle and he also gave an update on some of his more established stars.
He said: “I’m pleased to say that Aux Ptits Soins and Saphir Du Rheu are both back cantering in the early stages of their preparation for the World Hurdle in March.
“In addition Dodging Bullets has been in full work for a while after his problems with a splint. He’s on course to return in the Game Spirit Chase at Newbury before defending his crown in the Queen Mother Champion Chase.”
Watching atr this morning they were discussing Mullins horses for different races. It will be interesting to see what he has for this race. Annie power, Vroom vroom mag, thousand stars, arctic fire, milsean.
Would of had a few quid on ptit zig at 500.0 if he was in the market after falling today, not unimaginable that he ends up here.
Good call, Rocky. I’ve done my money on him for the Ryanair – thought he was a rattling bet after running Vautour so close, but should have looked back through more videos of his jumping – schoolboy error, rightly punished!
His jumping is a big worry when coming under pressure. Could have earned a few quid finishing second on Saturday but don’t blame Sam for asking for a big one to keep him in with a chance of winning the race. That means Nicholls could have three in this with Aux Ptits Soins and Saphir Du Rheu also competing.
Unlucky steeple chasing. Looked very good at down royal on his debut and behind vautour at Ascot, nicholls not doing so well with the chasers this season
Possibly 4 he said he will enter Irving in the Cleeve aswell. won’t take them all and I’m sure more than 1 will dissapoint over hurdles before then.
No luck Joe, I think it’s safe to say we’ll all follow you in with horses not making their targets
Nice call Rocky, hope you get a chance to get him at a price.
VTC you could be on to something there,
I personally diddnt get all the hype about the horse from what he beat last season, but at that sort of price it’s deffinately worth a shout.I won’t be backing anything else in the race.
Will stick with what iv got.
Think thistlecrack will take all the beating, wouldn’t rule out windsor park on spring ground either, was pretty obvious what they were doing in the ryan air hurdle. They Diddnt want to give him a hard time in the Christmas hurdle on heavy ground over 3 miles.
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