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Minella Rocco – Desperate so far this season in Novice Chases, I just wonder if they’ll keep him over timber. JP doesn’t have an obvious candidate, other than At Fishers Cross, so I thought he was worth a gamble. Considered the 50’s each way with Skybet, and he was nearly my selection for “TRF vs Pricewise”, but went for him on the exchange instead. I’ve also bet him for the 3 mile chase on Day 1 of The Festival, where he can exploit his mark of 143, and haven’t ruled out The Pertemps for him either. Difficult horse to weigh up, but the potential is undoubtedly there. 240’s to 260’s.
I’ve taken a bit of that 50’s each way, since Skybet are NRNB.
He seemed to jump quite a bit better last time but checked out very quickly. Was any reason given?
Geraghty mentioned on his blog prior to the most recent outing that he had pulled MR up in December not long after his blunder as his confidence appeared to have gone. Perhaps he just wanted to take no chances on a repeat this time, though BG has never been one for lost causes – he’d be the polar opposite of AP in that respect, and rightly so imo
At Fishers Cross will be out later this week. Was wondering what had happened to him. Nearly placed last year at a huge price.
Windsor park in with a huge shout if the going description has ‘good’ in it. Ignore his winter form, he wasn’t stopping over 3f less last year!
Windsor park in with a huge shout if the going description has ‘good’ in it. Ignore his winter form, he wasn’t stopping over 3f less last year!
No entries for Windsor Park in the champion hurdle or world hurdle (entries announced today).
1) Any word of any setbacks?
2) Being held back for the Aintree middle distance race?
3) Longshot – Is it possible he goes to the Coral cup off a mark of 153?Had a little each-way on Martello Tower after today’s race. Conceding weight and ground conditions I don’t think that was such a bad effort. Not at all surprised if he comfortably reverses that result on quicker ground at the Festival. That might not be good enough to win but it puts him in with at least place prospects.
Looks like a drop back to two and a half should suit Noble Emperor.
Had a little each-way on Martello Tower after today’s race. Conceding weight and ground conditions I don’t think that was such a bad effort. Not at all surprised if he comfortably reverses that result on quicker ground at the Festival. That might not be good enough to win but it puts him in with at least place prospects.
Looks like a drop back to two and a half should suit Noble Emperor.
Can see the arguement of giving weight away Stilvi, mistake didn’t help and may well come on a bit for the run. But Martello Tower looks a thorough stayer, more emphasis on stamina (strong pace on a stiff course and softer ground) the better his chance at Cheltenham. Otherwise likely to struggle for speed against the best imo.
Value Is EverythingHad a little each-way on Martello Tower after today’s race. Conceding weight and ground conditions I don’t think that was such a bad effort. Not at all surprised if he comfortably reverses that result on quicker ground at the Festival. That might not be good enough to win but it puts him in with at least place prospects.
Looks like a drop back to two and a half should suit Noble Emperor.
Can see the arguement of giving weight away Stilvi, mistake didn’t help and may well come on a bit for the run. But Martello Tower looks a thorough stayer, more emphasis on stamina (strong pace on a stiff course and softer ground) the better his chance at Cheltenham. Otherwise likely to struggle for speed against the best imo.
I think the soft ground has been a plus from a stamina point of view but I actually think he is better on a quicker surface. Assuming he gets that I can see him tracking Cole Harden and the others playing catch-up. It will be a thorough test of stamina and I suspect plenty of them will have cried enough before the final hill.
The whole ante-post picture could look a lot different after the Cleeve. Imagine if Thistlecrack blows out and Camping Ground doesn’t stay? You are searching around for a favourite and all of a sudden 33/1 becomes 12/1.
With World Hurdle contenders now parachuting in from everywhere, Thistlecrack is beginning to look even skinnier
With World Hurdle contenders now parachuting in from everywhere, Thistlecrack is beginning to look even skinnier
What prices are these horses who’ve just parachuted in Joe? This invasion is yet to show itself in the betting.
Thistlecrack‘s price isn’t outstanding, I wouldn’t take 9/4 at the moment; but his chance must be around 25 to 30% surely? I wouldn’t lay 3/1, would you? Doesn’t look as if the two who could make a difference – Annie Power (10/1) and More Of That (25/1, much bigger on exchanges) – have taken off yet, let alone parachuted in. If Vroom Vroom Mag (9/1) goes for this it’ll actually be a positive for Thistlecrack, because it’ll mean Annie isn’t coming over the horizon. They’ve already tried and failed at getting Arctic Fire to stay. Alpha Des Obeaux‘s (10/1) performance today was fair, but still as yet nowhere near Thistlecrack standard. Am surprised Kilcooley (25/1) isn’t shorter, is he ok (not been seen for so long and stable out of form)? Same goes for Saphir De Rheu (20/1), does Silviviaco Conti‘s (still 33/1) entry mean SDR’s not doing as well at Dicheat as they’d hoped after an operation? At Fisher’s Cross (40/1) jumping not good enough? Whisper (25/1)’s much better in the Spring! But has been giving absolutely no encouragement, as if amiss. What would put the cat amongst the pigeons is if there were an understanding that if Nichols Canyon (16/1) gets beat by a long way in the Irish Champion he’d be re-routed; but how likely is that? At the moment it looks like Thistlecrack with biggest danger Camping Ground (9/1) who’s yet to prove himself at 3 miles and Cole Harden (9/1) who hasn’t been at his best all season, possibly due to the ground, possibly after another operation.
Where else is the challenge going to come from for Thistlecrack?
Value Is EverythingDidn’t they say they weren’t happy with Kilcooley at the moment? Not sure where I read it though. Hadn’t realised he’d had an injury…was very impressive at Wetherby.
Kilcooley misses another intended engagement in The Cleeve and, despite the trainer’s recent reassurances that all is well, I’m going to assume I’ve done my dough :(
Kilcooley misses another intended engagement in The Cleeve and, despite the trainer’s recent reassurances that all is well, I’m going to assume I’ve done my dough
Suspect that could be more to do with trainer form than the horse’s form Joe. Once/if Longsdon can come back to form before middle of March there’s a good chance Kilcooley’s form will do the same.
Value Is EverythingWow! Fair play, this Thistlecrack is one proper horse. Congrats to those who are on at decent odds
Yes…I’ve been a bit of a non believer and horses very, very rarely win a World Hurdle without coming off the bridle….we may well have one here though!
Will take the World of beating for sure….and it’s not trained by Mullins!!
Really happy he won like that. Just wish I put more than £30 on at 25/1 but i was 50/50 whether he was going chasing or not. Ptit zig ran pretty well in 2nd but the writing was in the wall from a long way out.
You think they will go chasing next year?
Would be very hard to turn down the money he’s earning over hurdles.
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